tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18954688428886368192024-02-08T13:53:40.078-06:00Living from April to OctoberIf it's about baseball, I'll blog about it.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.comBlogger61125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-28885302297286174152011-07-04T11:05:00.003-05:002011-07-04T17:13:40.861-05:00First Half Awards: National LeagueAs I did <a href="http://apriltooctober.blogspot.com/2011/07/first-half-awards-american-league.html">for the American League</a> the other day, today I will list who I feel the major award winners in the National League would be if the season ended today.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Most Valuable Player:</span> <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kempma01.shtml">Matt Kemp (LAD)</a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The Numbers:</span> .322/.406/.609, 22 Homers, 64 RBI, 22 SB.<br /><br />In the real voting that will occur at the end of the season, Kemp will not benefit from the fact that he is playing on a mediocre team. But in selecting who has been the all-around best player this year in the National League, it is difficult to select anyone else. Don't get me wrong, there are certainly other candidates -- many of which are more likely to win the actual award at the end of the season given the teams they are on, but Kemp has been better. Kemp is first in the National League in Home Runs, first in Total Bases, second in OPS, third in RBI, fourth in Stolen Bases, and fifth in Hits. His impressive numbers across the board make it difficult for anyone else to compete with him, especially when he plays at a premium position like Center Field.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Honorable Mentions:</span> Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder, Lance Berkman, Brian McCann.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Cy Young Award:</span> <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml">Roy Halladay (PHI)</a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The Numbers:</span> 136.1 Innings Pitched, 11-3, 2.44 ERA 8.6 K/9, 131/17 strike out to walk ratio, 1.027 WHIP.<br />Halladay may not have the lowest ERA in the National League, but his all-around numbers indicate that his season is more sustainable.<br />Halladay is leading the league in Innings Pitched and Complete Games, and Strikeout to walk ratio, second in Strike Outs and WHIP, and third in ERA. Halladay's high position on every single pitching statistic is indicative of just how great he is, in my opinion it is hard to argue that there is any better pitcher in the game right now.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Honorable Mentions:</span> Jair Jurrjens, Cole Hamels<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Rookie of the Year:</span> <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/espinda01.shtml">Danny Espinosa (WAS)</a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The Numbers:</span> .243/.328/.465, 15 Homers, 48 RBI, 9 SB.<br /><br />In kind of a down year for rookies in the National League, Espinosa has been the best. He has provided valuable power for the Nationals who lost Adam Dunn last year and have been missing Ryan Zimmerman for most of this year. His slash-line numbers may not be excellent, but compared to other National League rookies he is quite good. Among rookies Espinosa is first in Slugging, OPS, Home Runs, Stolen Bases, and RBIs. Espinosa is still only 23, and looks like (if he could develop some patience) he could become an excellent hitter in the coming years for the Nationals.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Honorable Mentions:</span> Craig Kimbrel, Freddie Freeman, Darwin Barney.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Comeback Player of the Year:</span> <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berkmla01.shtml">Lance Berkman (STL)</a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The Numbers:</span> Last year: .248/.368/.413, 14 Homers, 58 RBI. This year: .297/.409/.610, 22 Homers, 61 RBI.<br />Most people though Berkman's life as an elite producer was over after last year, but he has proved them wrong, being the most productive hitter on a team that has Albert Pujols. Berkman has already surpassed the majority of his numbers from last year, and is a legitimate MVP candidate if he can continue his production. He is first in the NL OPS, and Home Runs, and fifth in RBI.<br />Some may feel that Jose Reyes deserves to be here, but I based my "Comeback Player" on improvement over a previous season. While Reyes has certainly had a much better season this year, he was by no means a bad player last year as Berkman was. Also by definition a "Comeback Player" has to be someone who has had legitimate success earlier in their career but had a difficult season the year before, making break-out players (like Michael Morse) ineligible in my opinion.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Honorable Mention:</span> Jose Reyes, Carlos BeltranJacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com37tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-14071410463432847712011-07-02T20:14:00.003-05:002011-07-02T20:47:39.784-05:00First Half Awards: American LeagueSo I just recently discussed who I felt was the best player at each position in each league. I figure I will follow that up by discussing who I feel would win all of the major awards if the season ended today.<br /><br /><span style="font-style:italic;"><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">American League</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Most Valuable Player</span>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaad01.shtml">Adrian Gonzalez (BOS)</a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The Numbers:</span> .349/.404/.590, 16 Homers, 73 RBI<br />Gonzalez is leading the league in Hits, Runs Batted In, Total Bases, and Batting Average. He has been the most consistent hitter on a wildly inconsistent Red Sox team. Gonzalez has also been a force on both sides of the ball, with most defensive metrics showing him to be one of the best defensive First Basemen in the league. On the whole, it is difficult to argue any other player in the league has been better than Gonzalez so far this season.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Honorable Mentions:</span> Jose Bautista (TOR), Curtis Granderson (NYY), Paul Konerko (CWS).<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Cy Young Award</span>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml">Justin Verlander (DET)</a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The Numbers:</span> 11-3, 135.2 Innings Pitched, 2.32 ERA, .862 WHIP, 130 Strike Outs.<br />Verlander has had dominant seasons before (see: 2009), but this season surpasses anything he has ever done if he can keep up this pace. Verlander is leading the league in strikeouts, Innings Pitched, and WHIP. There are not even very many relief pitchers who have a WHIP comparable to Verlander's. Some pitchers may have slightly lower ERAs than Verlander's, but WHIP is certainly a better number to look at for a pitcher as it indicates how sustainable a pitcher's numbers are. The fact that Verlander has put up the best WHIP in the most-innings pitched indicates how good he has been this season.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Honorable Mentions:</span> Josh Beckett (BOS), Michael Pineda (SEA), Jered Weaver (LAA), James Shields (TBR).<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Rookie of the Year</span>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pinedmi01.shtml">Michael Pineda (SEA)</a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The Numbers:</span> 7-5, 2.65 ERA, 1.029 WHIP, 8.7 K/9.<br />Pineda has come on to the scene in Seattle as a force and is a big part of why Seattle is fairing better this year than they did last year. He is seventh in the league in WHIP, sixth in the league in ERA, and 10th in the league Strike Outs. These numbers make him one of the best pitchers in the league, not just the best rookie. Barring some unforeseen injury or a bout of ineffectiveness it is difficult to see anyone else winning the Rookie of the Year Award.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Honorable Mentions:</span> Mark Trumbo (LAA), Jeremy Hellickson (TBR).<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Comeback Player of the Year</span>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/ellsbja01.shtml">Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)</a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The Numbers:</span> 2010: 18 Games, .192/.241/.485. 2011: 80 Games, .300/.361/.452, 25 SB, 9 Homers, 45 RBI.<br />While the NL is awash with Comeback Player of the Year Candidates, the American League is a little shorter on candidates. The only other legitimate comeback player candidate in my mind is probably Russel Martin, and Ellsbury is outperforming him in every way. Ellsbury's season last year was cut short due to a rib injury, and when he was playing he was not particularly effective. There was some worry that he would not come back and be a full speed, but he has been impressive. He has on track for his usual 50+ Stolen Bases, but more interestingly he has already tied his career high for Home Runs and is on track to set career highs in RBIs, Doubles, and Hits.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Honorable Mention</span>: Russel Martin<br /><br />That's all for now. I will tackle the National League in the coming days!Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-11483871438287802352011-06-29T14:34:00.004-05:002011-07-02T10:55:33.488-05:00My All-Stars: National LeagueSo today I am going to tackle selecting the National League players whom I believe have been the best players at their respective positions so far this season. The rules for my selections will be the same as they were for the <a href="http://apriltooctober.blogspot.com/2011/06/my-all-stars-american-league.html">similar</a> post I made about the American League. Those rules really only being that I am only selecting a single player at each position, and there are no rules about team representation. So, let's begin.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Catcher</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccanbr01.shtml">Brian McCann (ATL)</a><br />Brian McCann is sometimes overlooked for just how good he is, and is perhaps the best Catcher in baseball. Since he started playing in 2005, he leads all Catchers in Total Bases, Home Runs, and RBIs. He has continued to impress this year, perhaps posting the best first half of his career with a .317/.391/.533 line and looking like he may post 30+ homers for the first time in his career. McCann's .923 OPS is impressive, especially for a catcher, and the next closest full-time National League catcher to this number is Miguel Montero who has an OPS more than 100 points lower.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">First Base</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml">Prince Fielder (MIL)</a><br />Prince Fielder is the latest among a large number of players who have had impressive years in their walk year. Fielder is leading the NL in RBIs, and all NL First Basemen in Homers and OPS. Joey Votto has the next highest OPS in the NL for a First Baseman, and he is 100 points behind Fielder.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Second Base</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weeksri01.shtml">Rickie Weeks (MIL)</a><br />As in the American League, this has been kind of a down year for Second Basemen. But, unlike in the NL, there is no clear leader at the position. However, I believe Rickie Weeks has had the best first half of NL second baseman, beating out guys like Chase Utley, Danny Espinosa, and Neil Walker. Weeks has posted a .290/.358/.495 line, and while he doesn't lead second basemen in anything but OPS, he has proven to be a more well-rounded player than the contendors. Espinosa has posted an impressive first half as far as power numbers go with 15 home runs, and Chase Utley missed a large portion of the season and hasn't found his power stroke yet.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Shortstop</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reyesjo01.shtml">Jose Reyes (NYM)</a><br />Another player having a career year for their walk year. There really should be no need for discussion here, as Reyes has in many ways been the best player in the National League in the first half. He leads the entire National League in a plethora of stats: Runs, Hits, Triples, and Batting Average. He may not have rediscovered his Home Run power, but despite that he is also leading in Total Bases. He has also managed to steal 29 bases, being caught only five times. Reyes' .349/.394/.528 line has him on track for a career year, and no other National League Shortstop (especially in light of Hanley Ramirez's off year), even comes close. Here is a comparison of the top three OPSes among Shortstops, just to give you a feel of Reyes' dominance.<br /><br />Jose Reyes: .922<br />Troy Tulowitzki: .818<br />Starlin Castro: .791<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Third Base</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirar01.shtml">Aramis Ramirez (CHC)</a><br />I may have said that Second Basemen in the NL are having a down year, but Third Basemen in the NL seem to be performing even more poorly. So much so that Aramis Ramirez, who got off to an extremely slow start, has been the best Third Baseman in the first half. He has of course been helped by the injury to Ryan Zimmerman, but the fact remains that he has been the best. He leads all National League Third Basemen in Total Bases by more than 20, and has the second best OPS for a Third Baseman in the league at a whopping (sarcasm) .790. It could be argued that Chase Headley has had the better season, but I feel that Ramirez should start before him based largely on the fact that he has become extremely hot of late and looks to finally be playing up to his level.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Left Field</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berkmla01.shtml">Lance Berkman (STL)</a><br />Berkman is likely going to win the Comeback Player of the Year award in the National League, and for good reason. After looking like his career was at a close with the Astros and the Yankees last year, Berkman has rebounded to put up monster numbers. He has a .295/.404/.573 slash-line all of which are best among Left Fielders and while his power surge has certainly slowed down, his 18 home runs are still good enough for the most among Left Fielders.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Center Field</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kempma01.shtml">Matt Kemp (LAD)</a><br />Maybe the one thing that Los Angeles Dodgers have to be happy about. After having a year plagued by inconsistency, and after having been called out by the team's GM, Kemp seems to have finally harnessed all of his talent and has posted an astounding .332/.417/.630, all the best among all NL outfielders, and comparable only to Curtis Granderson among all outfielders in the major leagues. He leads the National League in Slugging, OPS, and Total Bases from a premium position. He already has a 20-20 season with 22 Home Runs and 21 Steals, and looks like he may make a run at the more exclusive 40-40 club.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Right Field</span> <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/braunry02.shtml">Ryan Braun (MIL)</a><br />Ryan Braun is having a fourth consecutive All-Star caliber season. Braun isn't doing anything special this season, not for him anyway, but continues to consistently produce outstanding numbers having posted a .308/.391/.555 first half, and on track to get back above 30 home runs this season after falling short last season. No other Right Fielder is even in the conversation. The type of consistent excellence Braun has shown early in his career indicate that he should be a player we all keep our eyes on in the future.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Starting Pitcher</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml">Roy Halladay (PHI)</a><br />Roy Halladay is the best active pitcher in the Major Leagues. It's difficult to argue otherwise, but you can try. He continues to be an extremely sturdy player, even now that he is getting into his 30s, and leads the league in Innings Pitched. His 2.40 ERA is not approached by many other Starting Pitchers in the league, and he also leads the majors with 5 Complete Games. Halladay's consistent dominance since 2005 is an impressive span of any pitcher's career that is unmatched by any player not named Sandy Koufax.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Closer</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hanrajo01.shtml">Joel Hanrahan (PIT)</a><br />Part of the reason for the Pirates (hopefully not temporary) return to relevance, Hanrahan has been the best closer in the National League so far this season. His name may not be a household one just yet, but if he has a second half anything like hist first half that will be hard to avoid. Hanrahan has 23 Saves this season and has converted 100% of his save opportunities this season. There is no other closer in the majors who has 10 or more saves who has not blown a save yet this season. Given this fact, there is literally no other Closer that the National League should be handing the ball to to protect a lead.<br /><br /><br />That's all for now! Let me know what you think.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-12548099468319154992011-06-28T18:25:00.005-05:002011-06-28T19:26:20.354-05:00My All-Stars: American LeagueSo, with the All-Star game upon us I thought I would take the time to go through and select who I felt was the best player at each position in each league. I will be selecting one player per position, including for pitcher, I will pick one Starting Pitchers and one Relief Pitcher in each league. I know it's not a perfect system, and it obviously would not make the best "practical" team, but that's how I'm going to it. It should be noted this is not necessarily my projection of who will be the starters on the All-Star team, but rather the players who I feel are most deserving of starting. I am also not taking into account the rules that one player from each team must be represented, only going by the numbers.<br /><br />Today I'm going to be dealing with the American League.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><span style="font-style:italic;">American League</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Catcher</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/avilaal01.shtml">Alex Avila (DET)</a><br />Some people may be shocked to hear that so far this season Alex Avila has put up the best numbers for an American League Catcher. Sorry Joe Mauer fanboys, Avila's .304/.375/.542 slash-line is ridiculous for a catcher, and completely eclipses the horrible season Mauer is having. Avila's teammate Victor Martinez, who spends hardly time at Catcher these days, is the only other player who could be considered, with his .336/.385/.498 line. While Mauer is making a strong showing in the All-Star ballot based on name recognition, he certainly doesn't deserve to start over Avila.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">First Base</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaad01.shtml">Adrian Gonzalez (BOS)</a><br />No real surprise here. Adrian Gonzalez has taken to Fenway Park just as baseball pundits predicted. Gonzalez is leading all players in Hits (114), RBI (71), and Batting Average (.361), while playing almost every day. Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera are the only other two AL First Basemen worthy of consideration, and Miguel Cabrera comes especially close -- until you take into consideration contributions on both sides of the ball.http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif<br /><br />Gonzalez: .361/.415/.611 (1.026 OPS)<br />Teixeira: .247/.358/.538 (.896 OPS)<br />Cabrera: .332/.451/.572 (1.023 OPS)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Second Base</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01.shtml">Robinson Cano (NYY)</a><br /><br />In an off-year for AL Second Basemen, Cano is far ahead of the rest of the pack posting a .290/.334/.502 Slash-line. There is not another American League second baseman who is even close to approaching that this year. For purposes of comparison, Dustin Pedroia, has posted a .276/.391/.400 line, and he is second the American League in OPS for 2B.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Shortstop</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peraljh01.shtml">Jhonny Peralta (DET)</a><br />Peralta will more than likely be overlooked for flashier shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera to start the actual All-Star game, but the fact is that Peralta has been the best offensive Shortstop in the league. Here is a comparison of the two players:<br /><br />Peralta: .311/.360/.531 good for an .891 OPS<br />Cabrera: .295/.346/.502 god for an OPS of .848.<br /><br />While OPS certainly isn't everything - as Cabrera has stolen more bases and in fact has more Extra Base Hits than Peralta, Peralta still beats Cabrera in every slash-line category.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"> Third Base </span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodrial01.shtml">Alex Rodriguez (NYY)</a><br /><br />Rodriguez has certainly aged and is no longer the player he once was. But guess what? His production at Third Base has been best in the American League so far this year despite that. Rodriguez has posted a .300/.377/.513 line, and leads all American League Third Basemen in OPS and Batting Average. Many will suggest Adrian Beltre is more deserving of the slot based on his better power numbers and excellent defense - and they may be right, but I'm standing by Rodriguez as the best Third Baseman of the first half.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Right Field</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bautijo02.shtml">Jose Bautista (TOR)</a>.<br />Jose Bautista has proven that last year was no fluke (this is probably the thirteehttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifnth time you've read that), perhaps even outdoing himself last year so far, posting a much better slash-line of .328/.469/.656. He is leading all MLB players in Home Runs, On-Base Percentage and Slugging -- and obviously in OPS. There is really no argument as to who else should play here.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Center Field</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grandcu01.shtml">Curtis Granderson (NYY)</a><br />Curtis Granderson has finally been healthy for a full first half in New York, and has shown what he is capable of doing in that stadium, posting absolutely ridiculous numbers for a Center Fielder. He has a .276/.360/.572 slash-line and leads all Outfielders not named Jose Bautista in OPS and Home Runs. The only other player really in the running for this slot is Jacoby Ellsbury who has posted a very good .303/.365/.461 slash-line to go with his league-leading 25 Steals. Those numbers would have been enough for a starting slot in most seasons, but Granderson has made sure that doesn't happen.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Left Field</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gordoal01.shtml">Alex Gordon (KCR)</a><br />There has not been a lot of impressive production out of Left Fielders this season, but former hot prospect Alex Gordon, who seems to finally be approaching his potential, has been the best. He has posted a .294/.363/.481 line and has pounded out an impressive 35 XBH.<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Starting Pitcher</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml">Justin Verlander (DET)</a><br /><br />This is a difficult decision, partly imposed by my own limit of one player position, and partly because players like James Shields, Jered Weaver and Josh Beckett seem to be having career years (Year of the Pitcher II?) along with Verlander. However, I think Verlander has been marginally better than those three. Verlander leads the league in Innings Pitched, Strikeouts, and WHIP. His ERA is a touch higher than Beckett's or Weaver's, but he has down so in far more innings.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Closer</span> - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riverma01.shtml">Mariano Rivera</a><br />Stop me if you've heard this before: Mariano Rivera just keeps producing. So far this season he has the lowest ERA among American League closers and is ranked second in Saves. Chris Perez is the next closest competitor, and his ERA is nearly a half-run higher than Mariano's.<br /><br />Well, that's it for those. I realize my team ended up being extremely waited towards the New York Yankees (with 3 players), and the Detroit Tigers (with 3 players), but such things happen. There is a reason both teams are leading their divisions, albeit by the narrowest of margins.<br /><br />I will try to post my National League All-Stars tomorrow night. Have a good one!Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-79734512749998758302011-05-20T17:58:00.002-05:002011-05-20T18:23:53.256-05:00Offensive Deflation: What's the Cause?If you haven't realized it, offense has been going down for the last two years. Last season was the beginning, but this season has really shown a much greater decrease. The number of shutouts in the game is up -- if the current trend holds there will be 338 Shutouts this season. By comparison, in 1999 there were 193 shut outs. Baseball is on track to have its worst offensive season since 1972, which was the year that caused the American League to implement the Designated Hitter.<br /><br />These are simply the facts -- the question is, why is this the case? Personally, I don't think there is any one reason, and it is difficult to say what reason is having the greatest effect. However, I can still list the contributing factors and why I think they are contributing.<br /><br /><strong>1. The end of the "Steroid Era".</strong><br />This seems to be the most commonly cited reason for the offensive deflation, and it seems likely that it certainly plays a role. PED testing has become widespread, and players have been suspended who don't conform to these new rules (see: Manny Ramirez). However, while the apparent purification of the game has certainly had an effect, it is difficult to say that it is the only one.<br /><br /><strong>2. Pitchers are getting better.</strong><br />Of course, it's hard to say this since the statistics that a pitcher has are clearly effected by the caliber of hitting in his day and age, so the main thing that I'm going to use in my discussion of this is the average miles per hour of fastballs for major league hitters, as it is something that is static and is not affected by the pitcher's environment. According to data gathered by Bill James, the average fastball speed the lat few years is as follows:<br /><br />2006: 90<br />2007: 90.8<br />2008: 91.4<br />2009: 92.5<br />2010: 93<br /><br />Obviously there is a trend developing here. You probably could have figured it out without looking at the numbers simply by thinkign about the number of young pitchers who are around right now who throw extremely hard: i.e, David Price, Daniel Bard, Joel Hanrahan, Stephen Strasburg, etc.,<br />In short, I think the caliber of pitchers right now certainly plays a role in the loss of offense.<br /><br /><strong>3. Failure of hitters to adjust their philosophies</strong><br />Baseball players today strike out a lot. That's no secret. Personally, I believe it to be a remnant of the so-called "steroid era" in that players did not mind striking out so much because offense was so easy to come by, so an all or nothing approach was efficient. Now, with offense coming at a premium, and players hitting fewer home runs, players have failed to change their strategy. Players are still striking out a lot but are not supplying the power necessary to make their strikeouts worth it. There are of course players who are exceptions to this such as Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard, but there are many other players who should probably change their approach (See: James Loney, Mark Reynolds).<br /><br /><strong>4. More emphasis on defense</strong>.<br />I've talked about the increased emphasis on defense by General Managers on this blog before, this emphasis is a product of General Managers adjusting to the of the steroid era. In general, the fact that more and more General Managers have become more interested in players who can provide solid defense <em>and</em> hit, there are simply more guys on the field who can effectively play both sides of the ball and fewer hulking outfielders and first basemen. This is more certainly a contributing factor to the decrease in offense.<br /><br />Anyway, that's it for now. Let me know if you have any other ideas as to why offense has decreased.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-47206852749514525862011-05-04T11:55:00.003-05:002011-05-04T12:18:16.832-05:00The Luckiest No-Hitter Ever.Most of you probably already know that Francisco Liriano threw a no-hitter last night because of the way the media covers such things -- which is kind of the point of this post.<br /><br />In my opinion, Liriano's start last night is a perfect example of how overblown the idea of a no-hitter is. No-hitter's are largely unfairly glorified by the media and the majority of baseball fans. Liriano's no-hitter last night was largely a product of luck. Twenty-Seven of his Twenty-Nine outs were on balls put in play -- the average Batting Average on Balls in Play would indicate how extremely good Liriano's luck was last night. I haven't looked at the numbers yet, but the two strikeouts Liriano had last night have to be among the lowest number of strikeouts for a pitcher throwing a no-hitter.<br /><br />My real point here is that a no-hitter is not really a reflection of how good a pitcher is or how good a pitcher's stuff is on a given night due to the fairly large luck factor in baseball. The fact that Roy Halladay can throw a Complete Game and allow four hits and strike out double digit batters and get less fan-fare than Liriano got for his very much inferior start is kind of a flaw in the game. In general, many of the main stream pitching stats seem rather flawed to me with Saves the biggest culprit but with the "milestone" of the no-hitter being a close second.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-5312504856748717882011-04-22T15:58:00.003-05:002011-04-22T16:12:08.076-05:00Recent Extensions Worth the Risk?You have probably already heard the news that Ryan Braun signed a five-year extension with the Brewers this week for $105 million. The interesting thing about the deal is that the Brewers already had Braun locked up through 2015, so this extension does not kick in until after 2015.<br /><br />You probably also know that Troy Tulowitzki signed a lucrative contract this winter that extends him through 2020. Like Braun, Tulowitzki was already locked up for a number of years, so his extension will not kick in for a while.<br /><br />It is clear that Tulowitzki and Braun are excellent players and certainly good players to have as cornerstones of your organization, but the question I'm asking here is whether or not it's worth extending these guys in this way. Specifically, I'm asking if it's a wise investment to decide to extend players who are already locked up for a number of years.<br /><br />On the surface it seems fairly wise, especially given the production these two have put up early in their careers. They will also only be in their mid-30s by the time the contract ends, so both the Brewers and the Rockies will be getting the best part of these players' careers. However, that kind of assumption implies that the two are going to continue to be productive, and it also assumes that they are going to stay completely healthy, which is a much more dangerous assumption.<br /><br />There have been many players who have been spectacular early in their careers but were then de-railed by freak injuries. Mark Prior is the first that comes to mind for me, but there are countless others. I'm not saying that Braun or Tulowitzki are any more likely than any other player to suffer one of these injuries (though Tulowitzki has proven to be injury prone early in his career), only that the risk is certainly there. The problem in giving one of these pre-mature extensions is that the player being extended receives this injury while <em>still</em> playing under the pre-extension contract. These two teams will still be on the hook for a massive amount of money.<br /><br /> Typically extensions are performed by teams who realize that a player is very likely to achieve their ceiling, but has not quite gotten their, so they may as well lock them up before they get to that level and demand even more money (see: Evan Longoria, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, etc.,). It seems fairly unlikely that Ryan Braun and Tulowitzki have much higher to reach -- and in fact Braun seems to be on a modest decline. <br /><br />So really, my conclusion here is that I simply don't understand what the benefit is of extending these players while they are still on multi-year contracts. It's entirely possible and in fact probable than Tulowitzki and Braun perform well over the course of their extremely long deals, but there is no reason that these extension deals should not have been delayed until Tulowitzki and Braun were much closer to the end of their respective contract. <br /><br />What do you think? Do these contracts make sense?Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-1075735177344640752011-04-19T16:22:00.002-05:002011-04-19T16:30:56.667-05:00Should Joe Mauer be catching?It has long been said that Joe Mauer will stop catching at some point in his career -- though not by anyone in the Minnesota Twins organization. The belief is that at some point, the Twins will decide the wear and tear on his body will become too much, especially given the $184mm invested in him, and move him to another position where he will not get hurt. However, once again, I have heard everyone but the Twins say this. The question is, should he be moved?<br /><br />Yes, Mauer has missed a number of games with injuries the last three years (and he also missed games in '07 because of injury), and this is a major reason that people argue he should be moved. However, does anyone really know if he will no longer be somewhat injury prone if he DOES stop catching? The answer is no. It may very well be that Mauer is just a guy who ends up on the DL every year, which sucks for the Twins, but he can still be a productive player going on the 15-day DL once every year.<br /><br />However, that's not my biggest argument agaisnt moving Mauer. The biggest argument I have is that his bat really isn't THAT valuable if you place him anywhere else he can play. Mauer's career .326/.406/.479 line is impressive for sure, but his 81 Home Runs in 3616 Plate Apperances is not. While it's true the Twins could probably deal with a 3B putting up Mauer's numbers, you can bet that they'd rather get some of their Home Runs out of their 3B. Left Field and Right Field -- the other positions suggested for Mauer, are also positions that are typically expected to produce some pop. Shortstop and Centerfield are the only other positions Mauer could occupy and still be considered an elite player at the position -- and neither of those positions is an option for Mauer. So my point here is really that Mauer has maximum value at Catcher, where he is arguable the best in the game right now. Compare Mauer's numbers to any of the other positions he could play, and he's in the middle of the pack.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-87674409703312960952011-04-09T10:58:00.003-05:002011-04-09T11:13:02.176-05:00Manny Ramirez RetiresIf you haven't heard, <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110408&content_id=17514236&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb">Manny Ramirez has announced his retirement</a>. Reports indicate that he failed another PED drug test, and was informed he would need to serve a 100-game suspension, and he told the MLB he was retiring.<br /><br />The point of this post isn't really to discuss whether or not Manny Ramirez belongs in the Hall of Fame, because it's pretty clear he does -- if you can get past the PED issue. He is one of the best hitting Outfielders of all time, and he is in the top 25 in Homers, RBIs, and Adjusted OPS. It is difficult to argue against Manny Ramirez's Hall of Fame candidacy assuming the voters eventually decide to let PED users in.<br /><br />The real point here is <em>how</em> Manny retired. First of all, he didn't inform the Rays first that he was retiring -- the MLB Office had to call the Rays and tell them. That alone is kind of disrespectful on Manny's part, and probably does a little more damage to his already questionable reputation. It also leaves the Rays in an undesirable situation, which I will get to later.<br /><br />The other thing is that he clearly does not have a PR guy looking out for him. Unlike every other potential Hall of Fame player who has used PEDs, Manny Ramirez was essentialy forced to retired because of his drug use. Other PED usersretired essentially under their own power, and played out their careers after they tested positive. Alex Rodriguez, when he retires, will not be immediatley remembered for PEDs (in theory), for instance. Any time Manny Ramirez is discussed, any biography of him that is ever written, people will be forced to note that he retired after a failed drug test because he did not want to serve the 100-game suspension.<br /><br />Anyway, that's really it for discussing Manny himself, but the other question here is how the Rays will deal with him leaving. If my understanding of contracts is correct, if a player retires, the otherwise "guaranteed" contract is no longer guaranteed, so at least the frugal Rays are off the hook for the majority of Manny's two million dollar salary. The real issue is that early season trends really seemed to indicate that Manny Ramirez was going to be their full time DH for the most part, somewhere Manny probably could have excelled in the long run (he did start the season rather slow). Manny started at DH for every game he was with the Rays and not dealing with his "family problems" which in retrospect may have dealt with the PED issue. He also got the same amount of at-bats as starters did during Spring Training. So the Rays plan this season was for Manny to get around 450 at-bats, and be a presence in their line-up. Now they don't have that because of Manny's indiscretion, and it is hard to see where they will go from here given that they don't have a huge presence of great power-hitting prospects in their system who are ready to go. <br /><br />In general, I am sure the Tampa Bay Rays front office is not happy with the way their plan has been dismantled tihs season between Evan Longoria's injury and Manny Ramirez's retirement.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-20946597580650144662011-04-05T10:59:00.003-05:002011-04-05T11:14:52.577-05:00Are these early season trends for real?It is kind of amazing to me how big of a deal people seem to be making over early season struggles or success of various teams that seem to be defying the various pre-season predictions. Despite the fact that everyone should have a fairly good idea that baseball has a very long season, I have heard in person, and even seen articles online, that are either pushing the panic button (Red Sox and Brewers) or already proclaiming that the division is theirs (Baltimore Orioles). <br /><br />So the question is, will this early season trends stand up? <br /><br /><strong>Red Sox</strong> (0-3): Yes, the Red Sox gave up 11 Home Runs in their opening season series. Red Sox pitching has struggled in the first three games of the season, but is it a trend? Probably not. Jon Lester has a bad April almost every year, Buccholz start was <em>really</em> not that bad, in that he gave up only 5 hits and yes, 4 were homers, but 2 of them were fairly clearly wind blown. The more positive and important trend of that series that may be (at least more) indicative of thigns to come, is David Ortiz's two home runs. He has started horribly the last two years, and his fast start this year is a good sign -- though it certainly does not mean he will not have a prolonged slump at a different time this year. The short answer is, the opening season series for the Red Sox has been overblown as a sign that the team is overrated, and they should certainly compete.<br /><br /><strong>Brewers</strong> (0-3): The Brewers issues are not as clearly temporary as the Red Sox, but it still seems likely. The Brewers are missing Corey Hart and Zack Greinke, both of wihch are fairly large losses. Assuming they don't dig too big of a hole for themselves the return of those two will certainly help. It is also pretty much a guarantee that Prince Fielder will get it going. While I dont' see the Brewers winning their division, I can certainly see them contending for it.<br /><br /><strong>Orioles</strong> (4-0): The Orioles young pitching so far this season has panned out and the Orioles offense has been as good as advertised. Can the Orioles young pitching continue to produce? I think it would be great if it did, but unfortunately trends indicate that having a rotation filled with such inexperienced guys will probably not pan out, not this year. Next year, it would not be completely shocking to see the Orioles compete in 2012 or 2013 after they get some more innings under their belt. The short answer is, I do not see the Orioles continuing to compete this season, although, as I stated <a href="http://apriltooctober.blogspot.com/2011/01/sleeper-of-al-baltimore-orioles.html?utm_source=BP_recent">in an earlier post</a>, the Orioles could certainly surprise this season.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-32011510393144827552011-03-26T13:01:00.006-05:002011-03-26T13:45:33.386-05:002011 Bounceback candidatesAs someone who plays fantasy baseball, I was thinking the other day about some potential guys who are bounceback candidates for this year who I could get late in a draft but expect pretty decent production from. Now, I know not everyone plays fantasy baseball, but that doesn't matter. I only include the anecdote to explain why I thought to make such a post. Bounceback candidates are important in a general sense in baseball, especially if you are a fan of the team they are on. And, in a general sense, I think we like to see guys succeed who had a rough year the year before. It's just human nature. Anyway, the point is, I thought I'd take a post to discuss a few players who I feel will have good (or at least average) seasons after having sub-par seasons. I chose two pitchers and two hitters who I feel are the most likely to have bounce back seasons.<br /><br /><em>Note: Remember "slash lines" such as .300/.400/.500, are, in order Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, and Slugging Percentage.</em><br /><br /><strong>Bounce Back Candidate:</strong> <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hillaa01.shtml">Aaron Hill</a><br /><strong>What he has to bounce back from:</strong> .205/.271/.394, 26 Homers, 68 RBIs.<br /><strong>Why he will bounce back:</strong> Aaron Hill was the most unlucky hitter in baseball last year. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) was an astronomically low .196 (league average is about .290) The next lowest BABIP in the majors was .236. Despite ihs struggles with his average, Hill still managed to mash 26 Home Runs, showing that the power he showed in 2009 was not a fluke. I don't expect Aaron Hill to have an incredibly high average this season, nor do I expect him to suddenly become a patient hitter, but I expect him to rebound and put up something like a .270/.335/.480 line while he once again approaches 30 Home Runs. That would be a great line for a Second Baseman.<br /><br /><strong>Bounce Back Candidate:</strong><br /><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/haranaa01.shtml">Aaron Harang</a><br /><strong>What he has to bounce back from:</strong>: 6-7, 5.32 ERA, 1.585 WHIP, 6.6 K/9.<br /><strong>Why he will bounce back:</strong>: Harang was limited by injuries last season, which I'm sure the Padres (who signed him) are hoping is the reason for his preciptious drop in effectiveness last season. Harang's career numbers are a 4.33 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and a 7.5 K/9, which are respectable, and it is important to remember that he accrued most of those numbers in the Great American Ball Park, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. A move to the cavernous PETCO park, if Harang can stay healthy, is likely to only lead to an improvement from his average WHIP and ERA. It is also notable that Harang is a notorious flyball pitcher, further benefitting him at PETCO park. If Harang stays healthy, 14 wins, a sub 4.00 ERA, and a 1.3 WHIP all seem very possible.<br /><br /><strong>Bounce Back Candidate:</strong> <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reynoma01.shtml">Mark Reynolds</a><br /><strong>What he has to bounce back from:</strong>: .198/.320/.433 with 32 Homers.<br /><strong>Why he will bounce back:</strong>:Reynolds is in a situation very similar to Aaron Hill's in that he had horrible luck last year (though still not as bad as Hill's). There is reason for caution though in regard to Reynolds that is not present in the discussion of Hill, and that is Reynolds monstrous strike out totals. Reynolds has led the league in strikeouts the last three seasons, and that is partly to blame for his average tanking in 2010. However, there is also a reason for a bit of hope, that being that Reynolds actually <em>increased</em> his walk percentage in 2010, and posted an impressive OBP given how low his average was. Like Hill, Reynolds also showed that the power he possesses is no fluke. A change of scenery for Reynolds (who was traded to the Orioles) may also help him some. He will also be in a better line-up with Orioles, which may produce more hittable pitches for Reynolds. Reynolds posting a .250/.370/.480 line with 30+ homers is what I expect to see this season.<br /><br /><strong>Bounce Back Candidate</strong>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vazquja01.shtml">Javier Vazquez</a><br /><strong>What he has to bounce back from:</strong> 10-10, 5.32 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 6.9 K/9.<br /><strong>Why he will bounce back:</strong> He's back in the NL. I am kidding in part when I say that, but Javier Vazquez has some serious AL/NL splits. Vazquez's career NL ERA is 4.02. His career AL ERA is 4.65. Now, those numbers should not be considered with utmost importance in why he will have a good 2011, especially because Vazquez's low NL ERA was mostly accrued when he was much younger. However, I still feel it will play a small role. Another reasno Vazquez should succeed this season is that he will be moving from Yankee Stadium to Sun Life Stadium. Like Harang, Vazquez will benefit from this change. There is also no reason at this point to assume that Vazquez's K/9 numbers will not rebound, and that last year was just an anomaly. Vazquez is often lost in the discussion of the great Strikeout pitchers of active players (at least for starters), but the fact is he is one of the best, even when he was in the AL. If his K/9 can rebound back to his career norm, Vazquez should fairly easily put up 15 wins and sub-4.00 ERA.<br /><br />That's it for now.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-70859077974163199162011-03-22T12:25:00.003-05:002011-03-22T12:40:07.760-05:00The Bonds Trial BeginsMost of you probably already know that the Barry Bonds perjury trail is starting today. Most pundits feel it is fairly likely that Bonds is indicted on perjury charges, and I tend to agree with them. If so, the ramifications of the trial on baseball will be great. However, I will save that post for after his is actually indicted.<br /><br />This post is more specifically about whether Barry Bonds belongs in the Hall of Fame. In the past, I posted a <a href="http://apriltooctober.blogspot.com/2010/04/poll-results-and-comments.html">poll about PEDs</a> on my blog, and the overwhelming sentiment was not to allow guys who are connected to PEDs into the Hall of Fame. While I saw the virtues of both sides of the argument, at the time I argued against most guys attached to PEDs into the Hall of Fame. However, in the last year or so I have had a change of heart -- to some degree in that I believe many of the players who owned up to their steroid use, and have managed to pass many tests since they became instituted, may belong in the Hall of Fame if their numbers dictate it.<br /><br />However, despite his amazing numbers, I still don't believe that Barry Bonds belongs in the Hall of Fame, and that is something that can be argued whether or not he had used steroids. The fact that he lied to a grand jury itself is likely enough to keep Bonds out of the Hall of Fame. It does not matter that the trial is about steroids -- if the trial had been about any other matter, Bonds' potential indictment would threaten his Hall of Fame chances. If Pete Rose, the all time hits leader, can be kept out of the Hall of Fame when he was not even indicted for any crimes, it seems likely to me that many HoF voters will keep the Home Run King out of the HoF with the same morality rules.<br /><br />Another major difference between Bonds and other players such as Alex Rodriguez (who never had an official positive test) is that Bonds actually <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2727325">failed an MLB drug test</a>, though he tested positive for amphetmaines and not for steroids. This means that Barry Bonds is actually on record with the MLB as having failed a drug test, something many other players who are connected to PEDs have not done.<br /><br />Anyway, my basic argument here is that of all of the MLB players from the Steroid Era connected to the period -- Bonds is perhaps the least likely player with Hall of Fame numbers to get into the Hall of Fame, despite being the best player of the era. Again, it will depend on whether or not he is indicted for perjury, but this seems entirely probable.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-84609951211140459672011-03-20T18:29:00.003-05:002011-03-20T18:57:55.156-05:00Pre-Season PredictionsGiven that Opening Day is only a couple of weeks away, I thought I'd take a post to make my predictions for divisional and Wild Card winners for the upcoming season. If you are curious about my predictions from last season, you can find them <a href="http://apriltooctober.blogspot.com/2010/04/opening-night-and-prognostications.html">here</a>. Remember, these are only predictions. If you feel I am completely wrong about something, let me know what you think.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>American League East</strong>: Boston Red Sox.<br />It's fairly hard to find anyone making pre-season predictions where they dont' feel the Red Sox will win their division. Given their line-up upgrades (Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez), bullpen upgrades (Dan Wheeler, Bobby Jenks) and an expected return to health, it's hard to foresee the Red Sox not winning the division, especially with the Yankees looking weaker than they have in recent years. Also of note is the fact that the Red Sox managed to win 89 games last year despite losing Pedroia in June for the entire season, Victor Martinez for a 6 weeks, Youkilis for 8 weeks, and so on. Even without the upgrades they made, the Red Sox would be a much improved team.<br /><br /><strong>American League Central</strong>: Chicago White Sox<br />The White Sox really only made one major addition this offseason in the form of Adam Dunn. However, their fellow AL Central leaguers made even less progress. The White Sox, of all of the teams in the division, have the best balance between offense and pitching (which is what I based my prediction that the Rangers would win the AL West last season on). The Tigers line-up has been improved, but is still inferior to what the White Sox can put out there. The Twins made very few upgrades this season, and probably have a slightly better line-up than the White Sox, but their pitching has much less depth than the White Sox have. While it's true the White Sox have no true ace, every pitcher in their rotation is average or better -- something no other team in their division can claim to have.<br /><br /><strong>American League West</strong>: Oakland Athletics<br />This division is the most difficult in the AL for me to predict. All three of the contending teams in this division (Athletics, Rangers, and Angels) all made some fairly large changes this offseason, and the number of changes made are sometimes hard to predict. However, I feel that the Athletics most effectively addressed their problems this off-season, and as a result will have a well-banced team capable of taking the division next year. Their additions of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham, not to mention the potential that rookie slugger Chris Carter has, should give them a much-improved line-up. The Athletics have the best pitching staff in the AL West, and quite possibly in the American League, so that should not be an issue.<br /><br /><strong>American League Wild Card</strong>: Tampa Bay Rays<br />While it's true the Rays lost two of their more productive hitters in Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, not to mention their closer in Rafael Soriano, I still believe the Rays are capable of winning 90+ games and winning the Wild Card. The Rays, despite having traded Matt Garza, have an excellent rotation with rookie Jeremy Hellickson likely to take Garza's spot in the rotation. Hellickson performed well last year, and it is difficult to doubt young Rays pitchers right now given how well every single one of them has performed in the major leagues. The Rays line-up will be severely diminished, but they have a fairly capable rookie in Desmond Jennings who will take Crawford's post. They also added Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, who should prove to be fairly productive in whatever role they are given. While a team like the Yankees clearly has a better line-up, a commmon adage is that "good pitching beats good hitting", and the Rays clearly have the Yankees beat in that respect.<br /><br /><strong>National League East</strong>: Atlanta Braves<br />With the news that Chase Utley may be out for the entire season, the Braves seem to be the best team in the division. The Phillies may have a ridiculously stacked rotation, but their line-up has been severely depleted with the losses of Jayson Werth and Chase Utley. The left-handed heavy line-up will have a hard time winning consistently on top of having to rely on aging stars like Jimmy Rollins. This is not to say that the Phillies will not still be good, I just believe that the Braves will be able to be better this year with their upgraded line-up and always-good pitching staff.<br /><br /><strong>National League Central</strong>: St. Louis Cardinals<br />In what is possibly Albert Pujols' last season on the Cardinals, I think the Cardinals should be able to take the division. The Brewers made some major upgrades, but recent injury news involving both star pitchers they added (Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum) makes me back off a little on predicting them to win their division. The Cardinals have their own injury problems in the starting rotation (Adam Wainwright), but they still have Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia as a solid one and two, and plenty of guys to take the ball behind them. The Brewers do not have that same luxury.<br /><br /><strong>National League West</strong>: Colorado Rockies<br />Just as the West is hard to predict in the American League, it is equally difficult to predict in the National League due to the fact that many of the teams in many ways seem equally matched, with no clear dominant team. However, I feel over the course of a long season, the Colorado Rockies probably have the capacity to most consistently win. The emergence of Carlos Gonzalez last season, and a full season of Troy Tulowitzki (hopefully), both point towards a great line-up this season. Ubaldo Jimenez also showed what he could do last season, and while the starting rotation is very likely the wek point for this team, most of the other teams in their division also do not have overwhelming strength in this area, making their better line-up the determining factor.<br /><br /><strong>National League Wild Card</strong>: Philadelphia Phillies.<br />I feel that, just as last season, the Phillies and Braves are quite possibly interchangable between the Wild Card and the NL East Title. However, as I stated above in my discussion of the Braves, I feel the Braves are the better team this year. However, given their dominant rotation, the Phillies seem likely to win the most games of all non-division winners this year.<br /><br />Anyway, that's it for now.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-37478436394581920242011-03-06T13:37:00.003-06:002011-03-06T14:13:05.559-06:00Minor League Equivalency 2Last year, I made a <a href="http://apriltooctober.blogspot.com/2010/04/minor-league-equivalency.html">post</a> where I used the <a href="http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html">Minor League Equivalency calcutor</a> to calculate the stats of various rookies who were projected to start last year. Looking at last year's post, you can probably notice that it is certainly not a perfect calculator -- but it is not as if it was completely wrong, especially in the cases of Jason Heyward and Austin Jackson. Also, it doesn't help that I completely overlooked Buster Posey, but such things happen. <br /><br />Anyway, the point is I thought I would do the same this season, and see what the calculator says certain up and coming rookies will do this season. To remind you, the calculator uses stats from a given level of the minor leagues and projects it out to the Major League level, based on some advanced algorithm. It should be noted that the calculator only works for position players, so I can't gauge potential rookies of the year like Jeremy Hellickson and Aroldis Chapman.<br /><br />Just like last year, I am going to start with an Atlanta Braves rookie. This time, though, it's going to be <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=freema002fre">Freddie Freeman</a> who is currently slated to start at 1B for the Braves.<br />Freeman, who had an excellent season last year at AAA Gwinnett, projects out to a .270/.319/.428 line with 14 homers, 29 doubles, and 67 RBIs. His low OBP is mostly a product of his K/BB rate -- freeman strikes out almost twice as often as he walks, even in the minors. The Calculator projects it to get even worse in the majors, but if Freeman can improve on that, he will certainly be in line for a solid rookie season especially for an age 21 season.<br /><br />Next up is the Phillies' Outfielder <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=brown-001dom">Domonic Brown</a>. His name is one of the hotter rookie names heard this offseason. But does he deserve the praise he is getting? It should be noted that it seems likely given a crowded Phillies outfield, that he starts in a platoon role or in Triple A. However, given his reputation as an excellent 5-tool top prospect, I would be shocked to see him work his way into an every day role this season.<br />Here is how the calculator feels he would do in a full season: .264/.325/.502, 22 homers, 38 Doubles, 20 SB, 66 RBIs. The Calculator seems to feel that Brown has an excellent chance to mash a huge number of extra base hits next season if he plays full time, while also having him just barely obtaining a 20-20 season his rookie year, which would probably make him a lock for the Rookie of the Year if he puts up these numbers. Like Freeman, Brown is plagued by a horrible walk to strikeout rate, resulting in his low average and OBP in the majors. Unlike Freeman, despite those problems, the Calculator indicates that Brown's ability to slug (a .502 SLG for a rookie is huge), likely will make him a heavily contributing player without a high OBP.<br /><br />Next is much talked about successor to Jorge Posada, Yankees catcher <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=monter001jes">Jesus Montero</a>. It seems likely that he ends up sharing some time with Russel Martin this year, but given his impressive performance in the minors last year, he is fully expected to become the primary catcher for the Yankees by next year if not sooner. Here is the calculator's full-season projection for Montero, based on his impressive season in the minors last year: .250/.304/.429 with 17 homers, 29 doubles, and 59 RBIs. Like the two young hitters discussed above, Montero has a major problem with the strike out that leads to a hamstrung average and OBP. Despite this, for a 21-year-old catcher, even if Montero only does what this projection believes he will do, those are pretty solid numbers. Numbers that the Yankees can only assume will get better.<br /><br />For this season, those three seem to me to be the most likely position playing rookies to get a fair number of at bats next season. All three of them are projected to have at the very least, a league-average season for a rookie. Domonic Brown, if he is able to get the at-bats and live up to his five-tool hype, certainly looks to be the most dominant of these three players for the 2011 season, and quite possibly in the future.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-57788980647490560872011-02-19T12:59:00.005-06:002011-02-19T13:22:19.640-06:00Albert Pujols: The LeBron James of Baseball?I have seen a lot of comparisons on the internet, and heard some of them in person, of LeBron James and Albert Pujols. Of course, these comparisons hinge on the fact that Pujols and the Cardinals did not come to an agreement before the end of Pujols' self-imposed deadline. I am here to refute the fact that Pujols is anything like LeBron James, even if Pujols does end up leaving the Cardinals for the Cubs or some other team.<br /><br /><strong>1. Pujols hasn't even <em>left</em> yet, and he may not. </strong> <br /><br />He imposed his deadline because now he just wants to focus on playing, something that is certainly respectable. There is still some chance that Pujols gets signed during the exclusive free agency period where the Cardinals can be the only team to talk to him. It's also possbile the Cardinals could retain him <em>after</em> he can talk to anyone. So, obviously, the fact that Pujols hasn't even left and spurned the team he spent years with, is a pretty big difference. Granted, it could be a temporary difference.<br /><br /><strong>2. The Cardinals did not offer him anything close to market value. </strong><br /><br />Now, I'm not anywhere close to being an expert on basketball, but as I recall the Cavaliers actually offered James MORE money than the Heat did, making this comparison less valid. If you believe the reports, the Cardinals offered Pujols something like 8 years at $21m a year. Now, this sounds like a lot of money to you and me, but it's important to note what lesser (but still clearly very good) First Basemen are being paid right now:<br />Mark Teixeira - 22.5m/year<br />Ryan Howard - $25m/year<br /><br />Who in their right mind, would give Pujols a serious offer that makes him only the third highest player at his <em>position</em>? I have a serious feeling that if Pujols were just offered market value ($26m/year, which would still be a home town discount) as the best first basemen in the game, he would probably take the deal. The reason this varies so much from LeBron James, is that it is not as if Pujols was offered an extremely fair deal for his "talents" like LeBron was, the Cardinals were trying to severely underpay him.<br /><br /><strong>3. Pujols helped the Cardinals win a championship.</strong><br /><br />Clearly something LeBron James never did for the Cavaliers. Unlike with James, it is not as if Pujols did not bring his city greatest reward in all of his respective sport. It stands to reason, similarly, that Cardinals fans will not be nearly as vociferous towards Pujols as Cavaliers fans are towards LeBron, given this fact. I am not saying they won't be hostile -- they probably will be if he leaves, just not AS hostile.<br /><br /><strong><br />4. The Cardinals before Pujols were not perennial losers.</strong><br /><br />The Cavaliers, throughout NBA history before LeBron James, were a horrible team. The St. Louis Cardinals are far from it. If you didn't know, the Cardinals have the second most championships of any MLB team with 10 World Series Championships. They won 9 of those without Pujols. The fact that the Cardinals are known for winning also makes the comparison difficult. Pujols is not the one bright light in the history of the franchise that everyone hopes will win them a championship some day. As I stated earlier, Pujols already helped them win one championship, and they won many more without him.<br /><br /><strong>5. Pujols is not the only superstar on the team</strong><br /><br />In case you forgot, the Cardinals also have Matt Holliday and an extremely good starting rotation. Not to mention a steadily rising star in Colby Rasmus. The Cardinals would certainly be able to reload if they lost Pujols -- they do not have all of their eggs in one basket like the Cavaliers did.<br /><br />Anyway, that's it for now. It will be interesting to see where Pujols lands next witner.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-91972391964931138172011-02-12T12:35:00.008-06:002011-02-12T14:12:24.681-06:00Biggest Winners of the OffseasonSince nothing of great magnitude is going on in the baseball world, except for the ongoing Michael Young situation and the Albert Pujols contract negotation -- both of which may be worth writing a blog about if they ever develop into anything, I figured I'd use this week's post to talk the teams who I feel are the top 5 winners of the offseason.<br /><br />It should be noted that I consider a team "winners" if they see needs on their team and effectively address them, this may lead to my results being a little bit different than you would expect. For instance, up front I am going to state that I did not include the Philadelphia Phillies as "winners", for the fact that they lost an important part of their line-up in Jayson Werth, and now have a left-handed heavy lineup with absolutely no right-handed pop -- Cliff Lee or no Cliff Lee. Also, it's important to note that whoever the "winners" are of the offseason may not be the winners of the regular season. Things on paper frequently appear better than the real thing.<br /><br /><strong>Top 5 Winners</strong><br />5. Chicago White Sox<br />Biggest Offseason moves: <br /><em>-Signed <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml">Adam Dunn 1B/OF/DH </a> to 4 year/$56 million contract.<br />-Signed 1B <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/konerpa01.shtml">Paul Konerko</a> to a 3 year/$37 million contract<br />-Signed 2B/SS <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=ramire003ale">Alexei Ramirez</a> to a 4 year/$32.5 million extension.</em><br /><br /><strong>Why they are winners:</strong> While it's true alot of what the White Sox did tihs off-season was simply make sure a couple of their cornerstone players were locked up for a while, that in itself can be a big move. Ramirez is one of the better infielders in baseball, and has the ability to play 2B or SS. While he has not quite had a 20-20 season, there seems to be one in his near future. It's true that Konerko is aging, but chances are he will outperform a countract that really does not overpay him. He is essentially a lock for 28+ homers, and is a force in the middle of that line-up, and he will probably benefit to some degree from the addition of Adam Dunn. Dunn is the type of power threat that is becoming increasingly rare in major league baseball, being a lock for homers in the upper 30s. While Dunn is certainly a liability in the field, he will benefit from playing the majority of his games at DH. In short, the White Sox have not lost anyone from their fairly effective team last year, and have strengthened their line-up greatly with the addition of Dunn.<br /><br />4. Detroit Tigers<br />Biggest Offseason Moves:<br /><em>-Signed C/1B <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martivi01.shtml">Victor Martinez</a> to a 4 year/$50m contract.<br />-Signed RP <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/benoijo01.shtml">Joaquin Benoit</a> to a 3 year/$15m contract.<br />-Signed SP <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pennybr01.shtml">Brad Penny</a> to a 1 year/$3m contract</em><br /><br /><strong>Why they are winners:</strong> The Tigers were in desperate need of someone in the line-up who can hit who is not named Miguel Cabrera, some depth in their bullpen, and some depth in their starting rotation. Clearly, these three signings address those issues. Martinez is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball -- though it seems likely the Tigers will have him spend at least one-third of his time at DH or first base. The addition of Martinez takes some pressure off of Miguel Cabrera (not that he doesn't thrive under it), and also gives him at least some degree of protection in the line-up. On the whole, the Tigers line-up will be much better with the Switch-hitting Martinez in the line-up. While I kind of feel like the Tigers gave Benoit more years than they should given, given the volatility of relief pitchers, Benoit has for the most part been an effective relief pitcher in his career, and will help their bullpen. Brad Penny is clearly a low-risk high-reward type of player given his recent injury history and ineffectiveness at times, but while he was healthy last year, he pitched very well for the Cardinals. If he can make 30 starts this year, he will be a big help to the rotation.<br /><br />3. Oakland Athletics<br />Biggest Offseason Moves:<br /><em>-Traded for OF <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willijo03.shtml">Josh Willingham</a><br />-Signed DH <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matsuhi01.shtml">Hideki Matsui</a> to a 1 year/4.25m contract.<br />-Traded for OF <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dejesda01.shtml">David DeJesus</a>.<br />-Signed <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fuentbr01.shtml">Brian Fuentes</a> to a 2 year/$10.5m contract.</em><br /><strong>Why they are winners:</strong> The Oakland Athletics, believe it or not, had the best starting rotation in baseball last year as far as ERA goes, but they still didn't come close to making the postseason. It seems that Billy Beane has responded by adding some undervalued players that could really contribute to their extremely weak line-up from last year. Willingham, Matsui, and DeJesus all represent significant upgrades to their line-up. Willingham and Matsui's power may suffer a little bit given the dimensions that theyw ill now be playing in, but despite that, they should contribute a fair percentage of the home runs that this team has come season's end. DeJesus is a classic example of a player who does everything well, but is not outstanding in any aspect of his game, and his numbers should not suffer at all from moving.<br />Brian Fuentes strengthens their bullpen with a veteran pitcher, and he could also close if the situation calls for it, something that is not completely out of the question given Andrew Bailey's injuries last year.<br />Given their upgrades, the Oakland Athletics stand to be this year's San Francisco Giants.<br /><br />2. Milwaukee Brewers<br />Biggest Offseason Moves:<br /><em>-Trading Prospects for SP <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml">Zack Greinke</a>.<br />-Trading Prospects for SP <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marcush01.shtml">Shaun Marcum</a></em><br /><br /><strong>Why they are winners:</strong> The Brewers have gotten a lot of criticism for not extening Prince Fielder this offseason, but to some degree I feel it is a good move on their part. Fielder is goign to ask for a Ryan Howard-sized deal, and the Brewers can simply not afford that. Additionally, Fielder is not a player who projects to be great for a long period of time.<br />So, the Brewers, knowing they cannot afford to extend Fielder, decided to try to contend this year in the last year that Fielder will be no the team. The Brewers had an awful starting rotation last year, so they have added a legitimate number 1 and number 2 starter to the mix. Both Marcum and Greinke have good track records, and should perform well for the Brewers. The Brewers stand to have an excellent bounceback year if their line-up performs as it did last year and their revamped rotation pitches up to expectations.<br /><br /><br />1. Boston Red Sox<br /><em>-Traded for 1B <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaad01.shtml">Adrian Gonzalez</a>, with a long-term extension all but signed according to reports.<br />-Signed <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/crawfca02.shtml">Carl Crawford</a> to a 7 year/$142m contract.<br />-Signed <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jenksbo01.shtml">Bobby Jenks</a> to a 2 year/$12m contract.</em><br /><br /><strong>Why they are winners:</strong> Almost everyone agrees the Red Sox won the offseason, so this should come as no surprise. The Red Sox had to fill the voids left by Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, and they did so admirably. Talks of the Red Sox trading for Adrian Gonzalez had been literally going on for two years, and it finally happened. The Red Sox also shocked everyone by signing Carl Crawford. The Red Sox line-up should be at least as good as it was last year, despite the losses of Beltre and Martinez. The Red Sox, in addition to Bobby Jenks, signed a number of bullpen arms (Dan Wheeler, etc,.) having effectively reconstructed what was one of the worst bullpens in the major leagues last year. Jenks can also close if Papelbon gets injured or continues to slide towards ineffectiveness, though it seems likely the Red Sox would give Daniel Bard a shot at closing first.<br /><br />On paper, it is arguable that the Red Sox are the best team in the American League. But as I stated at the beginning of this, there are still 162 games for the Red Sox, and all of these other offseason "winners" to play.<br /><br />I figure I will also post my list of offseason "losers", albeit without analysis. Leave a comment if you are interested as to why certain teams made the list:<br /><br />5. San Francisco Giants<br />4. Seattle Mariners<br />3. Cleveland Indians<br />2. New York Yankees<br />1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim<br /><br />Have a good week everyone, Spring Training is almost here!Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-88176097704465803902011-02-07T12:18:00.001-06:002011-02-07T12:20:10.014-06:00Andy Pettitte: Hall of Famer?As most of you have probably heard by now, Andy Pettitte has officially declared his retirement. This is going to cause a lot of problems for the Yankees rotation this year, but that is not really the topic of this post. As is frequently the case when a player with a lengthy and effective career retires, the debates have begun as to whether Andy Pettite should be in the Hall of Fame in 5 years when he is eligible. I am going to join that debate.<br /><br />To start off, I am simply going to state that I do not believe Andy Pettitte belongs in the Hall of Fame.<br /><br />Those who believe he should be in the Hall of Fame cite his impressive post-season statistics as the primary reason. If you didn’t know, Pettitte holds the record for the most wins in the post-season. This is no doubt impressive, but also something that should probably be taken with a grain of salt. Pettitte plays in an era where the postseason is set up in such a way that there are many chances for a pitcher on a very good team to get postseason wins. Great pitchers from the past have absolutely no chance to rank anywhere near the top of such a list, meaning that saying “Pettitte has the most postseason wins of all time” is kind of a hollow statement in that the current post-season format, as compared to the past, makes it much easier for him to accrue wins. <br /><br />If you look at the list of the most postseason wins, everyone on the list is a modern pitcher. Now, it’s true that Pettitte has more wins than guys from his era who are known for their postseason ability like John Smoltz and Curt Schilling, but a comparison of their other stats shows that Pettitte was not the best postseason starter of all time, and simply benefitted from better run support and more appearances in the postseason. Here are those three pitcher’s postseason stats:<br /><br />Pettitte: 19-10, 3.83 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 1.304 WHIP.<br /><br />Smoltz: 15-4, 2.67 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 1.144 WHIP.<br /><br />Schilling: 11-2, 2.23 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.125 WHIP<br /><br />It should be fairly clear from those statistics that despite having fewer wins, Smoltz and Schilling are in fact in a higher class than Pettitte as far as their post-season performances go. They won a lot of games in a lot fewer appearances, and put up much more dominant numbers than Pettitte ever did. I chose Smoltz and Schilling because they are both guys who are often cited as future Hall of Famers in part because of their post-season stats, so I thought it necessary to show what more legitimate Hall of Fame candidates had done in the postseason.<br /><br />The other argument people tend to make is simply stating that Pettitte’s regular season statistics are good enough, combined with his postseason success, to get him into the Hall of Fame. Once again, I disagree. <br /><br />Here is Pettitte’s career line: 240-138, 3.88 ERA, 1.357 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 6.6 K/9.<br /><br />Here is Pedro Martinez’s career line: 219-100, 2.93 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 10.0 K/9.<br /><br />Once again, for comparison’s sake, I am using someone who is typically considered a future Hall of Famer to compare Pettitte’s numbers too, just to indicate how far off the pace he is in everything but Wins. While Pettitte’s career winning percentage is fairly impressive – No one who is 102 games over the .500 mark for Wins has ever NOT made it in into the hall of fame. The rest of Pettitte’s numbers are not anywhere near that elite. His ERA, WHIP, and Hits and Strikeouts per nine innings are all fairly solid, and fairly typical for a Number 3 starter. How many pitchers in the Hall of Fame have given up more than one hit per inning in their career? The answer is one, and he got in 65 years ago. How many Number 3 starters make the Hall of Fame? Only the ones who have the longevity to win 300 games, which Pettitte has not done. Once again, Pettitte’s win total is inflated by the great offenses he pitched for. <br /><br />There may have been a time where Win Percentage MIGHT have been enough to get Pettitte into the Hall of Fame, but if the last two American League Cy Young Award winners, who were not even in the top 10 in Wins in their respective years (Zach Greinke, 16-8 in 2009 and Felix Hernandez, 13-12 in 2010) indicate anything, it is that voters are starting to look at more than just Wins.<br /><br />Now, I feel it necessary to post a disclaimer in saying that I think Andy Pettitte is certainly a very good pitcher. If I did not think so, I would not have begun this article by stating that the Yankees rotation is going to miss him. However, being in the Hall of Fame means being MORE than very good. It means being among the best of your era. Something that Andy Pettitte certainly is not. It should be noted that I did not even bring up pitchers like Randy Johnson and other pitchers who seem to be a lock for first ballot on the Hall of Fame. Pettitte will forever be remembered as a good player with multiple World Series wins and rings, especially because he plays for the biggest team in the sport, but this does not make him a Hall of Famer.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-52510149569472581392011-01-30T12:48:00.004-06:002011-01-30T13:33:29.416-06:00Sleeper of the AL: Baltimore OriolesFirst of all: Yes, I am alive. I am just in graduate school, so in some ways I may as well not be. I have decided to attempt (yes, I've said that before) to revive this blog, but given my schedule, I will probably only be updating once a week. But hey, that's a lot more than has been going on since October.<br /><br />At any rate, my topic for this week is to discuss the team that I feel is not getting enough attention regarding the moves they have made this offseason, and how much better their team has likely gotten in the mean time. First, let's recap what the Baltimore Orioles have done this off-season that I believe can contribute to their winning this year, with brief analysis, in no particular order:<br /><br />1. <strong>Traded RP David Hernandez and RP Kam Mickolio for <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reynoma01.shtml">3B Mark Reynolds.</a></strong><br /><br />I would argue that the Orioles came away as huge winners in this trade. While they did trade a guy with a high ceiling in Kam Mickolio, the Orioles received an extremely solid corner infield bat. While Reynolds did struggle to a .198/.320/.433 line last year, he still drew 83 Walks and hit 32 Home Runs. In large part, the .198average is due to bad luck. Now, the guy is never going to be a batting champion given his enormous strikeout rate, but it's easy to deal with a guy hitting .240 if he has a decent OBP and SLG, which should be easy for Reynolds to obtain this year. Also, while Reynolds is leaving a hitter's park, he is also moving to a hitter's park, so he should not see any decline in his power numbers. It should also be noted that Reynolds is no slouch defensively, and his production on both sides of the ball should be a major improvement over Garret Atkins and Miguel Tejada. Oh, and if you needed any more pros for the Orioles, Reynolds is signed for a fairly affordable $13.5 million/year through 2013, and is still just 27 years old.<br /><br />The Short Version: Reynolds brings considerable power, better defense, and some future stability at 3B.<br /><br />2. <strong>Traded a couple of low minors prospects for <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hardyjj01.shtml">SS J.J. Hardy</a> and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harribr01.shtml">INF Brendan Harris</a>.</strong><br /><br />J.J. Hardy, like Reynolds, had a bad year last year. Unlike Reynolds, Hardy has the excuse of an injury that limited him to 101 games, which contributed to him finishing with a .268/.320/.394 line. Unlike Reynolds however, Hardy seems to have lost the power he showed in 2007 and 2008, hitting 50 home runs between the two season, having hit only 17 home runs in the two following seasons combined. Despite that, most metrics still show Hardy as a great defender, and he is a great buy low target for the Orioles. Is it likely that Hardy rebounds to be a 25 homer guy this year? No. But it's entirely possible that he Slugs above .450, and contributes double digit homers to a club that had very little offense out of shortstop last year. Hardy is only signed through this year, but you can bet that if he manages to revive his career at Camden Yards, the Orioles will be right there with an extension.<br /><br />Clearly, Brendan Harris is just an afterthought here, and likely an attempt by the Twins to dump his $1.6 million salary. Harris is nothing more than a utility man, and doesn't even defend very well, but he can play all over the infield, so that has some value. It would not be completely shocking to see him released before Spring Training, however.<br /><br />The Short Version: Hardy contributes solid defense, and more offense than the Orioles got out of SS last year, even if he repeats what he did last year over a full season. Harris brings depth, and not much else.<br /><br />3. The <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leede02.shtml">1B Derrek Lee</a> signing.<br /><br />This signing may be for just one year, but that in itself is a wise move by the Orioles. Derrek Lee has had an injury history, and is not young by baseball standards at 35 years old. However, like Hardy, Lee is a great reclamation project. It is easy to forget after Lee's struggles last year (.260/.347/.428 with only 19 homers) that in 2009 Lee hit .306/.393/.579 with 35 homers. It is not a stretch to think that Lee could return to a similar level this year. While it is unlikely he repeats his 2009 season, it would not be a shock to see Lee split the difference between the two seasons, and do something like .280/.365/.500 with 25 homers. And once again, even if Lee does what he did last year, he will be an improvement over Garret Atkins at first base.<br /><br />The Short Version: Lee brings more power in the middle of the order and a leadership factor the Orioles may not have had last season.<br /><br />4. The <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guerrvl01.shtml">DH Vladimir Guerrero</a> signing.<br /><br />While this hasn't actually happened yet, it is all but guaranteed to happen at some point in the next week. While Vlad the Impaler is a disaster in the outfield these days, he will provide the Orioles with a powerful DH. Guerrerro is a near-lock for a .300 batting average and 25 home runs for the Orioles. Unlike the other signings, Guerrerro will be taking the position of one of the few productive Orioles players last year, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scottlu01.shtml">Luke Scott</a>. However, Luke Scott's power will still be in the line-up, as he has already volunteered to move to the Outfield should the Orioles sign Vlad.<br /><br />The Short Version: Guerrero will only be able to play on the offensive side of the game, but should provide enough production their to justify signing him.<br /><br /><br />Clearly, all of these signings represent some improvement for the Orioles for next year, at least on offense and defense. Every one of the players that the Orioles have acquired this offseason (aside from Vlad) has at the very least a history of producing home runs and solid defense. In addition to everything they have done, the Orioles should (with luck) also receive a whole season of Brian Roberts next year, which should also contribute to their offense. If you are still not convinced that the Orioles offense has serious potential next year, look at the first 7 of a potential line-up for next year:<br /><br />1. Brian Roberts<br />2. Adam Jones<br />3. Vladimir Guerrero<br />4. Mark Reynolds<br />5. Derrek Lee<br />6. Luke Scott<br />7. J.J. Hardy<br /><br />Batters 2-6 int his line-up are near-locks for around 20 home runs, which is intimidating in any line-up. Pitchers will not have an easy time facing the Orioles.<br /><br />However, it should also be clear that I have done very little to discuss Orioles pitching next year, which should probably still be a major problem. Jeremy Guthrie did pitch to his talent level last year, which is a good sign, and Brad Bergesen also displayed he has what it takes to pitch at the big league level. After these two however, the image becomes cloudy. Orioles pitching next year, despite their major advances in position players, will probably keep them from being legitimate contendors in a division as powerful as the AL East.<br /><br />However, I think it is entirely possible for the Orioles to finish with an 81-81 record this season, which seems to be more than any one else is giving them. I will even go so far as to predict that they will finish ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays, who seem to be getting much of the offseason attention that the Orioles deserve.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-7834907135629178282010-10-15T12:01:00.002-05:002010-10-15T12:32:07.583-05:00NLCS PreviewThis series looks to be a series with some amazing pitching. The "Big Three" of each team is very impressive. The Giants will have Strikeout King Tim Lincecum (3.43 ERA, 9.8 K/9), Jonathan Sanchez (3.07 ERA, 9.5 K/9), and Matt Cain (3.14 ERA, 1.084 WHIP) going in their first three games. Clearly the Phillies have their work cut out for them, despite their amazing offense.<br /><br />Luckily for the Phillies, to go with their amazing offense, they have a "Big Three" of their own with extremely impressive numbers. They will be sending likely Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay (2.44 ERA, 1.041 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9) to the mound, followed by WHIP-leading Roy Oswalt (2.76 ERA, 1.025 WHIP, 8.2 K/9), followed by Cole Hamels (3.06 ERA, 9.1 K/9).<br /><br />Obviously in most statistical categories (aside from Strikeouts), the Phillies have an edge in pitching. However, it should be noted that the Phillies "Big Three" have not faired especially well against the Giants, which is kind of baffling giving the Giants' mediocre offensive attack. So far this season, in 45 innings against the Giants, the "Big Three" has put up a 4.80 ERA. This is a somewhat small sample size, but it is not a miniscule one. Psychologically, it may also give the Giants more of an edge than people think.<br /><br />Obviously in sizing up the line-ups, the Phillies have the clear advantage. One through eight the Phillies have an above average offensive player given their position. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Jimmy Rollins (when healthy) are all well above average offensive players. <br /><br />The Giants can not boast two former MVPs in their line-up like the Phillies can, but they are not completely punchless either, as Giants teams of the last few years have been. Buster Posey, who will be battling Jason Heyward for Rookie of the Year honors, proved himself to be an offensive weapon (.305/.357/.507 with 18 Homers in only 108 games), and Pat Burrel seems to have had a Renaissance in the National League since being let go by the Rays, bashing 18 home runs in 96 games for the Giants. Still, the Phillies have a very clear edge in the offensive department.<br /><br />Like I did in my post about the ALDS, I will finish up by discussing some key questions for each team.<br /><br /><strong>For the Giants:</strong><br /><em>Can Kung Fu Panda turn it on?</em> - Pablo Sandoval was one of the biggest dissapointments of the year for the Giants, following his impressive 2009 with a .268batting average and only 13 home runs. He also did not do anything impressive against the Braves in the ALDS, collecting one single in 7 plate appearances. The fact that he was only used in two of the four games indicates how little faith the Giants have in him right now. However, if Pablo Sandoval can get it going, and start hitting like he did in 2009, if only for this post-season series, it would be a major upgrade for the Giants line-up.<br /><br /><em>Will Tim Lincecum pitch on short rest?</em> - I realize this is kind of a cop out, because I used a similar question to discuss the ALCS too, but in this "Year of the Pitcher" with so many pitchers being utterly incredible this year, it is hard not to talk about. I have not heard whether or not the Giants plan on using Lincecum on short rest. At this point it seems that Madison Bumgarner is slated to pitch game four. Bumgarner is no slouch, and Lincecum's smaller frame, at least according to "baseball guys", doesn't seem like the best body type to stand up pitching on short rest throughout this series. It seems more likely that Bumgarner starts game 4, and that Lincecum pitches on normal rest throughout the rest of the postseason.<br /><br /><strong>For the Phillies</strong><br /><em>Do the Giants have the "Big Three" figured out?</em> - If the Phillies "Big Three" pitch against the Giants like they did in the regular season, they may very well find themselves on the losing end of this series. A 4.80 ERA allows for plenty of runs for the Giants rotation to get wins from. The big question here is whether or not the Giants just coincidentally encountered the "Big Three" at times of the season when they were a little off, or if the Giants have the Phillies' "Big Three"'s number.<br /><br /><em>Will Roy Halladay pitch on short rest?</em> - Yeah, I did it again. I think this is a very big question, as dominant as Halladay has been this season, and as sturdy of a pitcher he seems to be. It should be noted that Halladay has pitched a staggering 259.2 innings this season (counting the post-season), and even he has to have a wall that he will encounter. While Halladay is largely considered capable of pitching on short rest by scouts, it will be interesting to see if the Phillies are weary to do so because of his massive workload this season. If Halladay does NOT pitch, it seems likely that Joe Blanton, who did not have an especially impressive season will take the ball. While the Phillies have a marginal advantage when looking at the first three pitchers for each team, when looking at all four pitchers (Bumgarner for the Giants, Blanton for the Phillies), things look a lot more equal.<br /><br />That's it for now, enjoy ALCS game one tonight!Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-36036821950838714812010-10-13T20:59:00.006-05:002010-10-13T21:35:21.549-05:00How will the ALCS go?Hey everyone,<br />Now that we know who the last 4 teams are this year, I thought I'd kind of preview the two series and talk about what I think are going to be important issues.<br /><br />Today I'm going to talk about the ALCS.<br /><br /><strong>Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees</strong><br />A lot of analysts seem to be thinking that the Rangers are nothing more than a speed-bump for the Yankees to get back to the World Series. I would argue that the Rangers deserve more respect than that. Yes, Cliff Lee will not be starting until game three, and yes he will only be able to start two games in the series, and that is assuming it goes to 7 games. But people seem to be overlooking C.J. Wilson, who put up stellar numbers this year (3.35 ERA, 7.5 K/9) that are in fact comparable to Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia (3.18 ERA, 7.5 K/9). <br /><br />In other words, the Yankees will be facing a tough left-hander in games one, three, four, and six. The Yankees fair much worse against left handers (31-27 in the regular season) than they do against Right Handers (64-40).<br /><br />It is also important to bring up the fact that the Rangers have home field advantage in this series, as the Yankees are the Wild Card entrant. Once again, the numbers do not favor the Yankees. The Yankees barely managed to stay above .500 on the Road, (43-38), while the Rangers are a dangerous team at home (51-30).<br /><br />Further developing the argument that this series will be more evenly matched that most people seem to think is the fact that the Yankees and Rangers actually split their season series this year, going 4-4 against eachother.<br /><br />Another thing that makes me like the Rangers in this series is the fact that the Rangers are pretty much loaded when it comes to Right-handed bats. This is important because Sabathia and Pettitte will likely start the most games for the Yankees, both of which are left handed. Hamilton, Cruz, and Kinsler all destroy left-handed pitching. And that's without even talking about Michael Young, who is no slouch. <br /><br />Basically, what I am trying to argue is that the Rangers should put up a very good fight in the ALCS, and could even win it, despite what most people seem to have concluded. To conclude this thing, I will be talking about the biggest questions for each of these teams.<br /><br /><strong>For the Rangers:</strong><br /><em>Can their bullpen get it together?</em> - In the ALDS the Rangers bullpen was from the effective bullpen it was during the regular season. Even Neftali Feliz, a very good Rookie of the Year candidate, struggled. It does not seem impossible for the bullpen to get back to being effective in the ALCS, but many of the people in the Rangers bullpen do not have much postseason experience, and the bright lights at Yankee Stadium may cause them problem.<br /><br /><em>Can Ian Kinsler stay hot?</em> - Ian Kinsler had an injury-riddled regular season, but was productive when he could play. He seems to have really turned it on for the post season, having hit .344 while bashing 3 Home Runs in five games. If he can stay hot, the Rangers will be in a very good place.<br /><br /><em>Will Cliff Lee pitch on short rest in an emergency situation?</em> - So far it has been fairly clear that neither Lee nor Ron Washington are interested in having Lee pitch on short rest, something he has never done in his career. If a situation arises in this series where Lee is needed to get the Rangers back on the winning track, will they use him? My guess is the answer is probably no, which is something that does not bode well for the Rangers.<br /><br /><strong>For the Yankees</strong><br /><em>Will the long layoff have done the Yankees harm?</em> - The Yankees once against brutally swept the Twins, leading to a long lay-off for them as the Rays/Rangers series went to five games. There are examples of long layoffs being good for teams, and examples of them being completely horrible (2007 Rockies, for instance), which group will these Yankees fall into? Many commentators have stated that the veteran nature of the Yankees will make it hard for them to lose their focus, and this could very well be true.<br /><br /><em>Will A.J. Burnett pitch game 4?</em> - At this point, Joe Girardi intends to use C.C. Sabathia, Andy Pettite, Phil Hughes, and A.J. Burnett in that order. A.J. Burnett had a year he would likely like to forget, but the Yankees really have no other option for a fourth starter, as their depth in this department is far from desirable. The question becomes, if the Yankees are down 2-1 before game four, will Burnett still be pitching it? My gut feeling is that the answer to this is "no", as C.C. Sabathia has proven throughout his career that he can pitch well on short rest. C.C. Sabathia with 3-days rest versus a well-rested, but gassed, A.J. Burnett seems like an easy choice to me. Especially if it means going down 3-1 or evening up the series. The answer to this question could very much end up determining how well the Yankees do in this series.<br /><br />That's all I have for now, I will try to post a similar blog about the NLCS tomorrow.<br />Enjoy some post-season baseball!Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-29109169622757287002010-10-10T12:29:00.003-05:002010-10-10T12:50:50.159-05:00Some Comments on BaseballSorry for completely dissapearing from the face of the Earth for a while. Between moving, starting graduate school, having a broken computer, and no cable, I haven't had an extreme amount of free time. However, I think I've gotten to where I can manage my time more effectively and I will have the time to update this a little more regularly. Granted, heading into the offseason there probably won't be as much to talk about, aside from trade rumors.<br /><br />Anyway, on to baseball.<br /><br />The playoffs have been interesting, although the first few series have looked like kind of bad match-ups, but that's baseball for you. <br /><br />The Yankees swept the Twins again, and will be playing either the Rangers or the Rays in the ALCS. <br /><br />I think it's fairly likely that the Rangers manage to win that series, because even if the Rays get it back to Tropicana Field, that means they will be seeing Cliff Lee again, who seems to have it really dialed up this post-season, just like he did last year. The Rangers also have the confidence of knowing that they won the first two games in St. Petersburg without any problem, so playing game five there should not intimidate them, if it comes to that.<br /><br />The Phillies seem to be on the verge of sweeping the Reds, whose pitching phenom let them down in game two, and who were the victims of the second no-hitter in post-season history in game one. The pitching match-up tonight doesn't seem to favor the Reds at all.<br /><br />The Braves and Giants series is an interesting one, as both teams have pretty good pitching with pretty average offenses. Unfortunatley, the Braves may have lost their closer for the rest of the series, which does not exactly bode well for them. Regardless, the Braves Giants series is probably the most evenly matched of the opening series, and I could see it going the full exciting 5 games.<br /><br />Additionally, I thought it would be interesting to look back at my <a href="http://apriltooctober.blogspot.com/2010/04/opening-night-and-prognostications.html">pre-season predictions</a> about who would make it into the playoffs this year. <br /><br />In the AL I managed to get two of four correct. I had the Yankees winning the AL East and the Red Sox winning the Wild Card. Obviously the Red Sox's massive number of injuries prevented this, and the Rays surprising 96-win season despite their offense horribly underachieving did as well.<br /><br />I also got two of four in the AL East correct, predicting the Phillies winning the NL East and the Braves winning the Wild Card. I predicted the Rockies winning the NL West and the Cardinals winning the NL Central. Obviously I got both of those pretty wrong. The Rockies were contendors until September, but never really threatened the Padres or Giants. The Cardinals stumbled late in the season and only managed to finish a few games over .500.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-90188248302903007902010-07-30T14:49:00.004-05:002010-07-30T15:08:03.317-05:00The Matt Capps TradeI realize of all of the trades that have gone on recent days (Jorge Cantu, Roy Oswalt, Miguel Tejada, Dan Haren, etc.,) the <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5421810">Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos trade</a> is probably one of the least exciting. However, most of the other trades (except for maybe the Dan Haren trade) made sense to me for both teams, and both teams got a pretty fair deal out of it.<br /><br />I don't think that is the case with this trade. I think that the Nationals clearly got the better deal, which in some ways is nice to see I guess.<br /><br />Ramos, who was a stud prospect at the end of last year, at the premium position of Catcher, has had an off year. His value has certainly declined, but I don't think that it has declined to the point that a 1-for-1 trade for Matt Capps makes any kind of sense, especially because Matt Capps is not exactly amazing. Last year, he was non-tendered by the Pirates after putting up a 5.80 ERA as their closer. Certainly his ERA was a product of bad luck, since his 7.6 K/9 and low walk rates were pretty good. However, the ERA he has put up this year of 2.74, is on the opposite end of that spectrum and is pretty much the product of good luck. His strike out rate has actually gone DOWN since last year, although his Walk rate has improved.<br />Basically, my point is that for most teams, Matt Capps is a serviceable 7th or 8th inning guy, and certainly not a closer. He was a closer for the Pirates and the Nationals because the Pirates had no other options, and the Nationals aren't quite ready to thrust Drew Storen or Tyler Clippard into the role -- although I guess they are going to now. The Twins plan to insert Capps into the closer role, although obviously he will only have it for the rest of this year (pending results I'm sure) as Joe Nathan returns next year.<br /><br />I understand that the Twins needed bullpen help with the recent struggles of John Rauch as closer, but bullpen help usually comes a lot cheaper than someone with as high of a ceiling as Wilson Ramos. Yes, the Twins will have control of Capps for a number of years before he reaches free agency. And yes, Joe Mauer would have been blocking Wilson Ramos for the rest of time, but the Twins could have included Ramos in a much better deal (in fact he was part of their attempted package for Cliff Lee) than for Capps.<br /><br />Some people, such as <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dated-information/">Fangraphs' Dave Cameron</a> think that Ramos' struggles this year (.241/.280/.345 at AAA) decrease his value enough for the trade to be fair for both sides. What Dave Cameron, who I usually agree with, fails to mention is the fact that Wilson Ramos is a 22-year-old catcher, who destroyed AA pitching last year and will probably take a little bit of time to adjust to AAA. His numbers against AAA pitching have not been great, but it's not like he's below the Mendoza line or anything. He has plenty of time, Catchers are one of the slowest position players to make it all the way to the majors, and he is still playing above his age level for a Catcher. It's also kind of important to note that Ramos already has a handful of games in the Major Leagues from earlier this season when Mauer had an injury.<br /><br />Tomorrow is deadline day, and I will probably make a post about my favorite trades of the last few weeks and how I think they will effect contenders.<br />Have a good weekend everyone!Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-10446077854518559552010-07-24T18:56:00.002-05:002010-07-24T19:14:03.613-05:00The Alberto Callaspo TradeThe Trade Deadline is quickly approaching, and some teams have already started making deals.<br /><br />Earlier this week <a href="http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20100722&content_id=12522718&vkey=pr_ana&fext=.jsp&c_id=ana">Alberto Callaspo</a> was traded to the Angels. Here is a brief run-down of the trade.<br /><br />Angels get:<br />Alberto Callapso (2B, 3B)<br /><br />Royals get:<br />Sean O'Sullivan (RHP)<br />Will Smith (LHP)<br /><br />The Angels were desperately in need of an upgrade at third with the way Brandon Wood has played so far this season, and Alberto Callaspo certainly represents that. Callapso is not the most patient of hitters, having only drawn 19 walks thus far this season in 89 games. He also does not strike out much either though, striking out only 29 times over that same span. His current line is .275/.308/.410, and if he stays on that same space he will certainly represent an improvement over the .168/.185/.225 line that Brandon Wood has been putting up.<br />The other bonus is that the Angels will hold on to Callapso for a number of years. I could not find how much longer the 27-year-old Callaspo has before he reaches free agency for the first time, but I did find out that he won't be a free agent this off-season, or next year, representing a pretty good deal for the Angels in that he is (at minimum) locked up through the 2012 season. It will probably be hard for the Angels to make the post-season this year, although Callaspo probably slightly improves their chances. This move seems to have more impact on the next couple of seasons, in that the Angels had a big question mark at third base.<br /><br />The Royals also seem to have come out pretty alright in this deal. O'Sullivan and Smith are both fairly young, and have decent upsides, although both have struggled to find any consistency this year. O'Sullivan is only 22 and has already spent some time in the major leagues, albeit with not the best results. Smith is a little further from getting a call-up, more than likely, but he projects as someone who will make it to the major leagues some day.<br /><br />Overall, I think I'd put the Angels as the winners of this trade because they filled a major need they had and did not have to give up any of their biggest prospects. They did give up a couple of guys who will probably be serviceable major leaguers some day, but they received (at least) two and a half years from a proven major league player at their weakest position, who will probably hit around .280 every year with lots of doubles. <br /><br />In coming years if Smith and O'Sullivan prove to have the ability to be more than solid major league pitchers, then maybe the Royals finally did some good scouting before a trade.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-73940800190572128342010-07-21T18:07:00.003-05:002010-07-21T18:17:38.284-05:00Lou Piniella's RetirementFor those of you who haven't heard, <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/story?id=5395615">Lou Piniella has announced his retirement</a>. At the end of this season he will be leaving his every day job as a manager, although possibly becoming some type of consultant in the future.<br /><br />His retirement poses an interesting question, that question being: Does Lou Piniella belong in the Hall of Fame?<br />Obviously Piniella's numbers as a player do not get him into the Hall of Fame. He was a serviceable player, but didn't produce any eye-popping numbers. However, his managerial career has quite a few milestones that should certainly put him into consideration for the Hall of Fame. <br /><br />The following are all things that I feel will support Piniella's candidacy for the Hall of Fame:<br /><br />-He has the 14th most wins all time for any manager, at 1,826.<br />-He was the manager of the 116-win Seattle Mariners team in 2001, still the record for most wins in the regular season.<br />-He won a World Series in 1990 when he was with the Cincinatti Reds<br />-He won "Manager of the Year" Award three times (1995, 2001, 2008).<br /><br />Overall, I think it's fairly clear that with all of these credentials, Piniella certainly deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1895468842888636819.post-60499400535079254222010-07-16T21:22:00.002-05:002010-07-16T21:44:03.963-05:00Pre-Season Predictions: How Am I Doing? Part 2So, as promised, I am going to see how good the <a href="http://apriltooctober.blogspot.com/2010/04/awards-predictions.html">predictions I made early in the season</a> about the major awards are looking.<br /><br />Here were my predictions:<br />AL MVP: Mark Teixeira (NYY)<br />AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (SEA)<br />AL ROY: Wade Davis (TBR)<br />NL MVP: Albert Pujols (STL)<br />NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay (PHI)<br />NL ROY: Jason Heyward (ATL)<br /><br />So, thus far, my predictions really are not looking very good.<br /><br />In the AL, Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton are the clear MVP candidates, as both are currently in the top 5 of all triple crown categories. Mark Teixeira is having an off-year putting up a .254/.360/.465 line. Teixeira could get hot and outpace the other guys for the MVP, but they have quite a head start on him. The most likely Yankee to get the award at this point is actually probably Robinson Cano.<br /><br />The AL Cy Young if the season ended today would probably go to David Price. However guys like Jon Lester, Andy Pettitte, and Cliff Lee are probably also in the discussion. Felix Hernandez, who I liked as a candidate, has pitched well putting up a 2.88 ERA. However, the anemic Seattle Offense has only provided him with only 7wins. He will need a hot second half to live up to my prediction.<br /><br />My AL Rookie of the Year prediction is probably the worst of all my predictions. Davis has pitched kind of solidly, but not good enough for Rookie of the Year honors. Guys like Neftali Feliz (23 saves) and Brennan Boesch (.342/.397/.593) are probably the likely candidates for that.<br /><br />My NL MVP prediction is the only one I still have any confidence in, although if the season ended today it probably would not go to Albert. Instead, it would probably go to Joey Votto. However, Albert is hot on his tail, and also has history on his side in that Albert very rarely drops off in the second half. The same can not be said of Votto.<br /><br />My NL Cy Young prediction is not completely horrible, in that I feel that Roy Halladay has had the third best season in the National League for a starting pitcher. However, I think Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez have him beat at this point, with Josh Johnson curretnly having an edge on Ubaldo.<br /><br />My NL Rookie of the Year prediction is also not completely off-base, Heyward had a solid first half for a 20-year-old, hitting 11 home runs and getting on base fairly oftne. However, it does seem the league has corrected how they pitch to him, in that most of his pwoer was on display in April and May. The current leader in the NL Rookie of the Year voting is probably Mike Leake (3.53 ERA), with Gaby Sanchez (.302/.365/.467) a close second. Once Strasburg has more innings logged, he's probably also in the fight. Heyward still has a chance at the Rookie of the Year award if he can adjust to how pitchers have adjusted to him, and his immense popularity (as indicated by his selection tot he All-Star team) may end up getting it for him anyway.<br /><br />That's it for now. Have a good weekend!Jacobhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09229729505846377707noreply@blogger.com0