Friday, July 16, 2010

Pre-Season Predictions: How Am I Doing? Part 2

So, as promised, I am going to see how good the predictions I made early in the season about the major awards are looking.

Here were my predictions:
AL MVP: Mark Teixeira (NYY)
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (SEA)
AL ROY: Wade Davis (TBR)
NL MVP: Albert Pujols (STL)
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay (PHI)
NL ROY: Jason Heyward (ATL)

So, thus far, my predictions really are not looking very good.

In the AL, Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton are the clear MVP candidates, as both are currently in the top 5 of all triple crown categories. Mark Teixeira is having an off-year putting up a .254/.360/.465 line. Teixeira could get hot and outpace the other guys for the MVP, but they have quite a head start on him. The most likely Yankee to get the award at this point is actually probably Robinson Cano.

The AL Cy Young if the season ended today would probably go to David Price. However guys like Jon Lester, Andy Pettitte, and Cliff Lee are probably also in the discussion. Felix Hernandez, who I liked as a candidate, has pitched well putting up a 2.88 ERA. However, the anemic Seattle Offense has only provided him with only 7wins. He will need a hot second half to live up to my prediction.

My AL Rookie of the Year prediction is probably the worst of all my predictions. Davis has pitched kind of solidly, but not good enough for Rookie of the Year honors. Guys like Neftali Feliz (23 saves) and Brennan Boesch (.342/.397/.593) are probably the likely candidates for that.

My NL MVP prediction is the only one I still have any confidence in, although if the season ended today it probably would not go to Albert. Instead, it would probably go to Joey Votto. However, Albert is hot on his tail, and also has history on his side in that Albert very rarely drops off in the second half. The same can not be said of Votto.

My NL Cy Young prediction is not completely horrible, in that I feel that Roy Halladay has had the third best season in the National League for a starting pitcher. However, I think Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez have him beat at this point, with Josh Johnson curretnly having an edge on Ubaldo.

My NL Rookie of the Year prediction is also not completely off-base, Heyward had a solid first half for a 20-year-old, hitting 11 home runs and getting on base fairly oftne. However, it does seem the league has corrected how they pitch to him, in that most of his pwoer was on display in April and May. The current leader in the NL Rookie of the Year voting is probably Mike Leake (3.53 ERA), with Gaby Sanchez (.302/.365/.467) a close second. Once Strasburg has more innings logged, he's probably also in the fight. Heyward still has a chance at the Rookie of the Year award if he can adjust to how pitchers have adjusted to him, and his immense popularity (as indicated by his selection tot he All-Star team) may end up getting it for him anyway.

That's it for now. Have a good weekend!

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