You have probably already heard the news that Ryan Braun signed a five-year extension with the Brewers this week for $105 million. The interesting thing about the deal is that the Brewers already had Braun locked up through 2015, so this extension does not kick in until after 2015.
You probably also know that Troy Tulowitzki signed a lucrative contract this winter that extends him through 2020. Like Braun, Tulowitzki was already locked up for a number of years, so his extension will not kick in for a while.
It is clear that Tulowitzki and Braun are excellent players and certainly good players to have as cornerstones of your organization, but the question I'm asking here is whether or not it's worth extending these guys in this way. Specifically, I'm asking if it's a wise investment to decide to extend players who are already locked up for a number of years.
On the surface it seems fairly wise, especially given the production these two have put up early in their careers. They will also only be in their mid-30s by the time the contract ends, so both the Brewers and the Rockies will be getting the best part of these players' careers. However, that kind of assumption implies that the two are going to continue to be productive, and it also assumes that they are going to stay completely healthy, which is a much more dangerous assumption.
There have been many players who have been spectacular early in their careers but were then de-railed by freak injuries. Mark Prior is the first that comes to mind for me, but there are countless others. I'm not saying that Braun or Tulowitzki are any more likely than any other player to suffer one of these injuries (though Tulowitzki has proven to be injury prone early in his career), only that the risk is certainly there. The problem in giving one of these pre-mature extensions is that the player being extended receives this injury while still playing under the pre-extension contract. These two teams will still be on the hook for a massive amount of money.
Typically extensions are performed by teams who realize that a player is very likely to achieve their ceiling, but has not quite gotten their, so they may as well lock them up before they get to that level and demand even more money (see: Evan Longoria, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, etc.,). It seems fairly unlikely that Ryan Braun and Tulowitzki have much higher to reach -- and in fact Braun seems to be on a modest decline.
So really, my conclusion here is that I simply don't understand what the benefit is of extending these players while they are still on multi-year contracts. It's entirely possible and in fact probable than Tulowitzki and Braun perform well over the course of their extremely long deals, but there is no reason that these extension deals should not have been delayed until Tulowitzki and Braun were much closer to the end of their respective contract.
What do you think? Do these contracts make sense?
Friday, April 22, 2011
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Should Joe Mauer be catching?
It has long been said that Joe Mauer will stop catching at some point in his career -- though not by anyone in the Minnesota Twins organization. The belief is that at some point, the Twins will decide the wear and tear on his body will become too much, especially given the $184mm invested in him, and move him to another position where he will not get hurt. However, once again, I have heard everyone but the Twins say this. The question is, should he be moved?
Yes, Mauer has missed a number of games with injuries the last three years (and he also missed games in '07 because of injury), and this is a major reason that people argue he should be moved. However, does anyone really know if he will no longer be somewhat injury prone if he DOES stop catching? The answer is no. It may very well be that Mauer is just a guy who ends up on the DL every year, which sucks for the Twins, but he can still be a productive player going on the 15-day DL once every year.
However, that's not my biggest argument agaisnt moving Mauer. The biggest argument I have is that his bat really isn't THAT valuable if you place him anywhere else he can play. Mauer's career .326/.406/.479 line is impressive for sure, but his 81 Home Runs in 3616 Plate Apperances is not. While it's true the Twins could probably deal with a 3B putting up Mauer's numbers, you can bet that they'd rather get some of their Home Runs out of their 3B. Left Field and Right Field -- the other positions suggested for Mauer, are also positions that are typically expected to produce some pop. Shortstop and Centerfield are the only other positions Mauer could occupy and still be considered an elite player at the position -- and neither of those positions is an option for Mauer. So my point here is really that Mauer has maximum value at Catcher, where he is arguable the best in the game right now. Compare Mauer's numbers to any of the other positions he could play, and he's in the middle of the pack.
Yes, Mauer has missed a number of games with injuries the last three years (and he also missed games in '07 because of injury), and this is a major reason that people argue he should be moved. However, does anyone really know if he will no longer be somewhat injury prone if he DOES stop catching? The answer is no. It may very well be that Mauer is just a guy who ends up on the DL every year, which sucks for the Twins, but he can still be a productive player going on the 15-day DL once every year.
However, that's not my biggest argument agaisnt moving Mauer. The biggest argument I have is that his bat really isn't THAT valuable if you place him anywhere else he can play. Mauer's career .326/.406/.479 line is impressive for sure, but his 81 Home Runs in 3616 Plate Apperances is not. While it's true the Twins could probably deal with a 3B putting up Mauer's numbers, you can bet that they'd rather get some of their Home Runs out of their 3B. Left Field and Right Field -- the other positions suggested for Mauer, are also positions that are typically expected to produce some pop. Shortstop and Centerfield are the only other positions Mauer could occupy and still be considered an elite player at the position -- and neither of those positions is an option for Mauer. So my point here is really that Mauer has maximum value at Catcher, where he is arguable the best in the game right now. Compare Mauer's numbers to any of the other positions he could play, and he's in the middle of the pack.
Saturday, April 9, 2011
Manny Ramirez Retires
If you haven't heard, Manny Ramirez has announced his retirement. Reports indicate that he failed another PED drug test, and was informed he would need to serve a 100-game suspension, and he told the MLB he was retiring.
The point of this post isn't really to discuss whether or not Manny Ramirez belongs in the Hall of Fame, because it's pretty clear he does -- if you can get past the PED issue. He is one of the best hitting Outfielders of all time, and he is in the top 25 in Homers, RBIs, and Adjusted OPS. It is difficult to argue against Manny Ramirez's Hall of Fame candidacy assuming the voters eventually decide to let PED users in.
The real point here is how Manny retired. First of all, he didn't inform the Rays first that he was retiring -- the MLB Office had to call the Rays and tell them. That alone is kind of disrespectful on Manny's part, and probably does a little more damage to his already questionable reputation. It also leaves the Rays in an undesirable situation, which I will get to later.
The other thing is that he clearly does not have a PR guy looking out for him. Unlike every other potential Hall of Fame player who has used PEDs, Manny Ramirez was essentialy forced to retired because of his drug use. Other PED usersretired essentially under their own power, and played out their careers after they tested positive. Alex Rodriguez, when he retires, will not be immediatley remembered for PEDs (in theory), for instance. Any time Manny Ramirez is discussed, any biography of him that is ever written, people will be forced to note that he retired after a failed drug test because he did not want to serve the 100-game suspension.
Anyway, that's really it for discussing Manny himself, but the other question here is how the Rays will deal with him leaving. If my understanding of contracts is correct, if a player retires, the otherwise "guaranteed" contract is no longer guaranteed, so at least the frugal Rays are off the hook for the majority of Manny's two million dollar salary. The real issue is that early season trends really seemed to indicate that Manny Ramirez was going to be their full time DH for the most part, somewhere Manny probably could have excelled in the long run (he did start the season rather slow). Manny started at DH for every game he was with the Rays and not dealing with his "family problems" which in retrospect may have dealt with the PED issue. He also got the same amount of at-bats as starters did during Spring Training. So the Rays plan this season was for Manny to get around 450 at-bats, and be a presence in their line-up. Now they don't have that because of Manny's indiscretion, and it is hard to see where they will go from here given that they don't have a huge presence of great power-hitting prospects in their system who are ready to go.
In general, I am sure the Tampa Bay Rays front office is not happy with the way their plan has been dismantled tihs season between Evan Longoria's injury and Manny Ramirez's retirement.
The point of this post isn't really to discuss whether or not Manny Ramirez belongs in the Hall of Fame, because it's pretty clear he does -- if you can get past the PED issue. He is one of the best hitting Outfielders of all time, and he is in the top 25 in Homers, RBIs, and Adjusted OPS. It is difficult to argue against Manny Ramirez's Hall of Fame candidacy assuming the voters eventually decide to let PED users in.
The real point here is how Manny retired. First of all, he didn't inform the Rays first that he was retiring -- the MLB Office had to call the Rays and tell them. That alone is kind of disrespectful on Manny's part, and probably does a little more damage to his already questionable reputation. It also leaves the Rays in an undesirable situation, which I will get to later.
The other thing is that he clearly does not have a PR guy looking out for him. Unlike every other potential Hall of Fame player who has used PEDs, Manny Ramirez was essentialy forced to retired because of his drug use. Other PED usersretired essentially under their own power, and played out their careers after they tested positive. Alex Rodriguez, when he retires, will not be immediatley remembered for PEDs (in theory), for instance. Any time Manny Ramirez is discussed, any biography of him that is ever written, people will be forced to note that he retired after a failed drug test because he did not want to serve the 100-game suspension.
Anyway, that's really it for discussing Manny himself, but the other question here is how the Rays will deal with him leaving. If my understanding of contracts is correct, if a player retires, the otherwise "guaranteed" contract is no longer guaranteed, so at least the frugal Rays are off the hook for the majority of Manny's two million dollar salary. The real issue is that early season trends really seemed to indicate that Manny Ramirez was going to be their full time DH for the most part, somewhere Manny probably could have excelled in the long run (he did start the season rather slow). Manny started at DH for every game he was with the Rays and not dealing with his "family problems" which in retrospect may have dealt with the PED issue. He also got the same amount of at-bats as starters did during Spring Training. So the Rays plan this season was for Manny to get around 450 at-bats, and be a presence in their line-up. Now they don't have that because of Manny's indiscretion, and it is hard to see where they will go from here given that they don't have a huge presence of great power-hitting prospects in their system who are ready to go.
In general, I am sure the Tampa Bay Rays front office is not happy with the way their plan has been dismantled tihs season between Evan Longoria's injury and Manny Ramirez's retirement.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Are these early season trends for real?
It is kind of amazing to me how big of a deal people seem to be making over early season struggles or success of various teams that seem to be defying the various pre-season predictions. Despite the fact that everyone should have a fairly good idea that baseball has a very long season, I have heard in person, and even seen articles online, that are either pushing the panic button (Red Sox and Brewers) or already proclaiming that the division is theirs (Baltimore Orioles).
So the question is, will this early season trends stand up?
Red Sox (0-3): Yes, the Red Sox gave up 11 Home Runs in their opening season series. Red Sox pitching has struggled in the first three games of the season, but is it a trend? Probably not. Jon Lester has a bad April almost every year, Buccholz start was really not that bad, in that he gave up only 5 hits and yes, 4 were homers, but 2 of them were fairly clearly wind blown. The more positive and important trend of that series that may be (at least more) indicative of thigns to come, is David Ortiz's two home runs. He has started horribly the last two years, and his fast start this year is a good sign -- though it certainly does not mean he will not have a prolonged slump at a different time this year. The short answer is, the opening season series for the Red Sox has been overblown as a sign that the team is overrated, and they should certainly compete.
Brewers (0-3): The Brewers issues are not as clearly temporary as the Red Sox, but it still seems likely. The Brewers are missing Corey Hart and Zack Greinke, both of wihch are fairly large losses. Assuming they don't dig too big of a hole for themselves the return of those two will certainly help. It is also pretty much a guarantee that Prince Fielder will get it going. While I dont' see the Brewers winning their division, I can certainly see them contending for it.
Orioles (4-0): The Orioles young pitching so far this season has panned out and the Orioles offense has been as good as advertised. Can the Orioles young pitching continue to produce? I think it would be great if it did, but unfortunately trends indicate that having a rotation filled with such inexperienced guys will probably not pan out, not this year. Next year, it would not be completely shocking to see the Orioles compete in 2012 or 2013 after they get some more innings under their belt. The short answer is, I do not see the Orioles continuing to compete this season, although, as I stated in an earlier post, the Orioles could certainly surprise this season.
So the question is, will this early season trends stand up?
Red Sox (0-3): Yes, the Red Sox gave up 11 Home Runs in their opening season series. Red Sox pitching has struggled in the first three games of the season, but is it a trend? Probably not. Jon Lester has a bad April almost every year, Buccholz start was really not that bad, in that he gave up only 5 hits and yes, 4 were homers, but 2 of them were fairly clearly wind blown. The more positive and important trend of that series that may be (at least more) indicative of thigns to come, is David Ortiz's two home runs. He has started horribly the last two years, and his fast start this year is a good sign -- though it certainly does not mean he will not have a prolonged slump at a different time this year. The short answer is, the opening season series for the Red Sox has been overblown as a sign that the team is overrated, and they should certainly compete.
Brewers (0-3): The Brewers issues are not as clearly temporary as the Red Sox, but it still seems likely. The Brewers are missing Corey Hart and Zack Greinke, both of wihch are fairly large losses. Assuming they don't dig too big of a hole for themselves the return of those two will certainly help. It is also pretty much a guarantee that Prince Fielder will get it going. While I dont' see the Brewers winning their division, I can certainly see them contending for it.
Orioles (4-0): The Orioles young pitching so far this season has panned out and the Orioles offense has been as good as advertised. Can the Orioles young pitching continue to produce? I think it would be great if it did, but unfortunately trends indicate that having a rotation filled with such inexperienced guys will probably not pan out, not this year. Next year, it would not be completely shocking to see the Orioles compete in 2012 or 2013 after they get some more innings under their belt. The short answer is, I do not see the Orioles continuing to compete this season, although, as I stated in an earlier post, the Orioles could certainly surprise this season.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
2011 Bounceback candidates
As someone who plays fantasy baseball, I was thinking the other day about some potential guys who are bounceback candidates for this year who I could get late in a draft but expect pretty decent production from. Now, I know not everyone plays fantasy baseball, but that doesn't matter. I only include the anecdote to explain why I thought to make such a post. Bounceback candidates are important in a general sense in baseball, especially if you are a fan of the team they are on. And, in a general sense, I think we like to see guys succeed who had a rough year the year before. It's just human nature. Anyway, the point is, I thought I'd take a post to discuss a few players who I feel will have good (or at least average) seasons after having sub-par seasons. I chose two pitchers and two hitters who I feel are the most likely to have bounce back seasons.
Note: Remember "slash lines" such as .300/.400/.500, are, in order Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, and Slugging Percentage.
Bounce Back Candidate: Aaron Hill
What he has to bounce back from: .205/.271/.394, 26 Homers, 68 RBIs.
Why he will bounce back: Aaron Hill was the most unlucky hitter in baseball last year. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) was an astronomically low .196 (league average is about .290) The next lowest BABIP in the majors was .236. Despite ihs struggles with his average, Hill still managed to mash 26 Home Runs, showing that the power he showed in 2009 was not a fluke. I don't expect Aaron Hill to have an incredibly high average this season, nor do I expect him to suddenly become a patient hitter, but I expect him to rebound and put up something like a .270/.335/.480 line while he once again approaches 30 Home Runs. That would be a great line for a Second Baseman.
Bounce Back Candidate:
Aaron Harang
What he has to bounce back from:: 6-7, 5.32 ERA, 1.585 WHIP, 6.6 K/9.
Why he will bounce back:: Harang was limited by injuries last season, which I'm sure the Padres (who signed him) are hoping is the reason for his preciptious drop in effectiveness last season. Harang's career numbers are a 4.33 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and a 7.5 K/9, which are respectable, and it is important to remember that he accrued most of those numbers in the Great American Ball Park, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. A move to the cavernous PETCO park, if Harang can stay healthy, is likely to only lead to an improvement from his average WHIP and ERA. It is also notable that Harang is a notorious flyball pitcher, further benefitting him at PETCO park. If Harang stays healthy, 14 wins, a sub 4.00 ERA, and a 1.3 WHIP all seem very possible.
Bounce Back Candidate: Mark Reynolds
What he has to bounce back from:: .198/.320/.433 with 32 Homers.
Why he will bounce back::Reynolds is in a situation very similar to Aaron Hill's in that he had horrible luck last year (though still not as bad as Hill's). There is reason for caution though in regard to Reynolds that is not present in the discussion of Hill, and that is Reynolds monstrous strike out totals. Reynolds has led the league in strikeouts the last three seasons, and that is partly to blame for his average tanking in 2010. However, there is also a reason for a bit of hope, that being that Reynolds actually increased his walk percentage in 2010, and posted an impressive OBP given how low his average was. Like Hill, Reynolds also showed that the power he possesses is no fluke. A change of scenery for Reynolds (who was traded to the Orioles) may also help him some. He will also be in a better line-up with Orioles, which may produce more hittable pitches for Reynolds. Reynolds posting a .250/.370/.480 line with 30+ homers is what I expect to see this season.
Bounce Back Candidate: Javier Vazquez
What he has to bounce back from: 10-10, 5.32 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 6.9 K/9.
Why he will bounce back: He's back in the NL. I am kidding in part when I say that, but Javier Vazquez has some serious AL/NL splits. Vazquez's career NL ERA is 4.02. His career AL ERA is 4.65. Now, those numbers should not be considered with utmost importance in why he will have a good 2011, especially because Vazquez's low NL ERA was mostly accrued when he was much younger. However, I still feel it will play a small role. Another reasno Vazquez should succeed this season is that he will be moving from Yankee Stadium to Sun Life Stadium. Like Harang, Vazquez will benefit from this change. There is also no reason at this point to assume that Vazquez's K/9 numbers will not rebound, and that last year was just an anomaly. Vazquez is often lost in the discussion of the great Strikeout pitchers of active players (at least for starters), but the fact is he is one of the best, even when he was in the AL. If his K/9 can rebound back to his career norm, Vazquez should fairly easily put up 15 wins and sub-4.00 ERA.
That's it for now.
Note: Remember "slash lines" such as .300/.400/.500, are, in order Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, and Slugging Percentage.
Bounce Back Candidate: Aaron Hill
What he has to bounce back from: .205/.271/.394, 26 Homers, 68 RBIs.
Why he will bounce back: Aaron Hill was the most unlucky hitter in baseball last year. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) was an astronomically low .196 (league average is about .290) The next lowest BABIP in the majors was .236. Despite ihs struggles with his average, Hill still managed to mash 26 Home Runs, showing that the power he showed in 2009 was not a fluke. I don't expect Aaron Hill to have an incredibly high average this season, nor do I expect him to suddenly become a patient hitter, but I expect him to rebound and put up something like a .270/.335/.480 line while he once again approaches 30 Home Runs. That would be a great line for a Second Baseman.
Bounce Back Candidate:
Aaron Harang
What he has to bounce back from:: 6-7, 5.32 ERA, 1.585 WHIP, 6.6 K/9.
Why he will bounce back:: Harang was limited by injuries last season, which I'm sure the Padres (who signed him) are hoping is the reason for his preciptious drop in effectiveness last season. Harang's career numbers are a 4.33 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and a 7.5 K/9, which are respectable, and it is important to remember that he accrued most of those numbers in the Great American Ball Park, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. A move to the cavernous PETCO park, if Harang can stay healthy, is likely to only lead to an improvement from his average WHIP and ERA. It is also notable that Harang is a notorious flyball pitcher, further benefitting him at PETCO park. If Harang stays healthy, 14 wins, a sub 4.00 ERA, and a 1.3 WHIP all seem very possible.
Bounce Back Candidate: Mark Reynolds
What he has to bounce back from:: .198/.320/.433 with 32 Homers.
Why he will bounce back::Reynolds is in a situation very similar to Aaron Hill's in that he had horrible luck last year (though still not as bad as Hill's). There is reason for caution though in regard to Reynolds that is not present in the discussion of Hill, and that is Reynolds monstrous strike out totals. Reynolds has led the league in strikeouts the last three seasons, and that is partly to blame for his average tanking in 2010. However, there is also a reason for a bit of hope, that being that Reynolds actually increased his walk percentage in 2010, and posted an impressive OBP given how low his average was. Like Hill, Reynolds also showed that the power he possesses is no fluke. A change of scenery for Reynolds (who was traded to the Orioles) may also help him some. He will also be in a better line-up with Orioles, which may produce more hittable pitches for Reynolds. Reynolds posting a .250/.370/.480 line with 30+ homers is what I expect to see this season.
Bounce Back Candidate: Javier Vazquez
What he has to bounce back from: 10-10, 5.32 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 6.9 K/9.
Why he will bounce back: He's back in the NL. I am kidding in part when I say that, but Javier Vazquez has some serious AL/NL splits. Vazquez's career NL ERA is 4.02. His career AL ERA is 4.65. Now, those numbers should not be considered with utmost importance in why he will have a good 2011, especially because Vazquez's low NL ERA was mostly accrued when he was much younger. However, I still feel it will play a small role. Another reasno Vazquez should succeed this season is that he will be moving from Yankee Stadium to Sun Life Stadium. Like Harang, Vazquez will benefit from this change. There is also no reason at this point to assume that Vazquez's K/9 numbers will not rebound, and that last year was just an anomaly. Vazquez is often lost in the discussion of the great Strikeout pitchers of active players (at least for starters), but the fact is he is one of the best, even when he was in the AL. If his K/9 can rebound back to his career norm, Vazquez should fairly easily put up 15 wins and sub-4.00 ERA.
That's it for now.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
The Bonds Trial Begins
Most of you probably already know that the Barry Bonds perjury trail is starting today. Most pundits feel it is fairly likely that Bonds is indicted on perjury charges, and I tend to agree with them. If so, the ramifications of the trial on baseball will be great. However, I will save that post for after his is actually indicted.
This post is more specifically about whether Barry Bonds belongs in the Hall of Fame. In the past, I posted a poll about PEDs on my blog, and the overwhelming sentiment was not to allow guys who are connected to PEDs into the Hall of Fame. While I saw the virtues of both sides of the argument, at the time I argued against most guys attached to PEDs into the Hall of Fame. However, in the last year or so I have had a change of heart -- to some degree in that I believe many of the players who owned up to their steroid use, and have managed to pass many tests since they became instituted, may belong in the Hall of Fame if their numbers dictate it.
However, despite his amazing numbers, I still don't believe that Barry Bonds belongs in the Hall of Fame, and that is something that can be argued whether or not he had used steroids. The fact that he lied to a grand jury itself is likely enough to keep Bonds out of the Hall of Fame. It does not matter that the trial is about steroids -- if the trial had been about any other matter, Bonds' potential indictment would threaten his Hall of Fame chances. If Pete Rose, the all time hits leader, can be kept out of the Hall of Fame when he was not even indicted for any crimes, it seems likely to me that many HoF voters will keep the Home Run King out of the HoF with the same morality rules.
Another major difference between Bonds and other players such as Alex Rodriguez (who never had an official positive test) is that Bonds actually failed an MLB drug test, though he tested positive for amphetmaines and not for steroids. This means that Barry Bonds is actually on record with the MLB as having failed a drug test, something many other players who are connected to PEDs have not done.
Anyway, my basic argument here is that of all of the MLB players from the Steroid Era connected to the period -- Bonds is perhaps the least likely player with Hall of Fame numbers to get into the Hall of Fame, despite being the best player of the era. Again, it will depend on whether or not he is indicted for perjury, but this seems entirely probable.
This post is more specifically about whether Barry Bonds belongs in the Hall of Fame. In the past, I posted a poll about PEDs on my blog, and the overwhelming sentiment was not to allow guys who are connected to PEDs into the Hall of Fame. While I saw the virtues of both sides of the argument, at the time I argued against most guys attached to PEDs into the Hall of Fame. However, in the last year or so I have had a change of heart -- to some degree in that I believe many of the players who owned up to their steroid use, and have managed to pass many tests since they became instituted, may belong in the Hall of Fame if their numbers dictate it.
However, despite his amazing numbers, I still don't believe that Barry Bonds belongs in the Hall of Fame, and that is something that can be argued whether or not he had used steroids. The fact that he lied to a grand jury itself is likely enough to keep Bonds out of the Hall of Fame. It does not matter that the trial is about steroids -- if the trial had been about any other matter, Bonds' potential indictment would threaten his Hall of Fame chances. If Pete Rose, the all time hits leader, can be kept out of the Hall of Fame when he was not even indicted for any crimes, it seems likely to me that many HoF voters will keep the Home Run King out of the HoF with the same morality rules.
Another major difference between Bonds and other players such as Alex Rodriguez (who never had an official positive test) is that Bonds actually failed an MLB drug test, though he tested positive for amphetmaines and not for steroids. This means that Barry Bonds is actually on record with the MLB as having failed a drug test, something many other players who are connected to PEDs have not done.
Anyway, my basic argument here is that of all of the MLB players from the Steroid Era connected to the period -- Bonds is perhaps the least likely player with Hall of Fame numbers to get into the Hall of Fame, despite being the best player of the era. Again, it will depend on whether or not he is indicted for perjury, but this seems entirely probable.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Pre-Season Predictions
Given that Opening Day is only a couple of weeks away, I thought I'd take a post to make my predictions for divisional and Wild Card winners for the upcoming season. If you are curious about my predictions from last season, you can find them here. Remember, these are only predictions. If you feel I am completely wrong about something, let me know what you think.
American League East: Boston Red Sox.
It's fairly hard to find anyone making pre-season predictions where they dont' feel the Red Sox will win their division. Given their line-up upgrades (Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez), bullpen upgrades (Dan Wheeler, Bobby Jenks) and an expected return to health, it's hard to foresee the Red Sox not winning the division, especially with the Yankees looking weaker than they have in recent years. Also of note is the fact that the Red Sox managed to win 89 games last year despite losing Pedroia in June for the entire season, Victor Martinez for a 6 weeks, Youkilis for 8 weeks, and so on. Even without the upgrades they made, the Red Sox would be a much improved team.
American League Central: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox really only made one major addition this offseason in the form of Adam Dunn. However, their fellow AL Central leaguers made even less progress. The White Sox, of all of the teams in the division, have the best balance between offense and pitching (which is what I based my prediction that the Rangers would win the AL West last season on). The Tigers line-up has been improved, but is still inferior to what the White Sox can put out there. The Twins made very few upgrades this season, and probably have a slightly better line-up than the White Sox, but their pitching has much less depth than the White Sox have. While it's true the White Sox have no true ace, every pitcher in their rotation is average or better -- something no other team in their division can claim to have.
American League West: Oakland Athletics
This division is the most difficult in the AL for me to predict. All three of the contending teams in this division (Athletics, Rangers, and Angels) all made some fairly large changes this offseason, and the number of changes made are sometimes hard to predict. However, I feel that the Athletics most effectively addressed their problems this off-season, and as a result will have a well-banced team capable of taking the division next year. Their additions of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham, not to mention the potential that rookie slugger Chris Carter has, should give them a much-improved line-up. The Athletics have the best pitching staff in the AL West, and quite possibly in the American League, so that should not be an issue.
American League Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays
While it's true the Rays lost two of their more productive hitters in Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, not to mention their closer in Rafael Soriano, I still believe the Rays are capable of winning 90+ games and winning the Wild Card. The Rays, despite having traded Matt Garza, have an excellent rotation with rookie Jeremy Hellickson likely to take Garza's spot in the rotation. Hellickson performed well last year, and it is difficult to doubt young Rays pitchers right now given how well every single one of them has performed in the major leagues. The Rays line-up will be severely diminished, but they have a fairly capable rookie in Desmond Jennings who will take Crawford's post. They also added Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, who should prove to be fairly productive in whatever role they are given. While a team like the Yankees clearly has a better line-up, a commmon adage is that "good pitching beats good hitting", and the Rays clearly have the Yankees beat in that respect.
National League East: Atlanta Braves
With the news that Chase Utley may be out for the entire season, the Braves seem to be the best team in the division. The Phillies may have a ridiculously stacked rotation, but their line-up has been severely depleted with the losses of Jayson Werth and Chase Utley. The left-handed heavy line-up will have a hard time winning consistently on top of having to rely on aging stars like Jimmy Rollins. This is not to say that the Phillies will not still be good, I just believe that the Braves will be able to be better this year with their upgraded line-up and always-good pitching staff.
National League Central: St. Louis Cardinals
In what is possibly Albert Pujols' last season on the Cardinals, I think the Cardinals should be able to take the division. The Brewers made some major upgrades, but recent injury news involving both star pitchers they added (Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum) makes me back off a little on predicting them to win their division. The Cardinals have their own injury problems in the starting rotation (Adam Wainwright), but they still have Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia as a solid one and two, and plenty of guys to take the ball behind them. The Brewers do not have that same luxury.
National League West: Colorado Rockies
Just as the West is hard to predict in the American League, it is equally difficult to predict in the National League due to the fact that many of the teams in many ways seem equally matched, with no clear dominant team. However, I feel over the course of a long season, the Colorado Rockies probably have the capacity to most consistently win. The emergence of Carlos Gonzalez last season, and a full season of Troy Tulowitzki (hopefully), both point towards a great line-up this season. Ubaldo Jimenez also showed what he could do last season, and while the starting rotation is very likely the wek point for this team, most of the other teams in their division also do not have overwhelming strength in this area, making their better line-up the determining factor.
National League Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies.
I feel that, just as last season, the Phillies and Braves are quite possibly interchangable between the Wild Card and the NL East Title. However, as I stated above in my discussion of the Braves, I feel the Braves are the better team this year. However, given their dominant rotation, the Phillies seem likely to win the most games of all non-division winners this year.
Anyway, that's it for now.
American League East: Boston Red Sox.
It's fairly hard to find anyone making pre-season predictions where they dont' feel the Red Sox will win their division. Given their line-up upgrades (Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez), bullpen upgrades (Dan Wheeler, Bobby Jenks) and an expected return to health, it's hard to foresee the Red Sox not winning the division, especially with the Yankees looking weaker than they have in recent years. Also of note is the fact that the Red Sox managed to win 89 games last year despite losing Pedroia in June for the entire season, Victor Martinez for a 6 weeks, Youkilis for 8 weeks, and so on. Even without the upgrades they made, the Red Sox would be a much improved team.
American League Central: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox really only made one major addition this offseason in the form of Adam Dunn. However, their fellow AL Central leaguers made even less progress. The White Sox, of all of the teams in the division, have the best balance between offense and pitching (which is what I based my prediction that the Rangers would win the AL West last season on). The Tigers line-up has been improved, but is still inferior to what the White Sox can put out there. The Twins made very few upgrades this season, and probably have a slightly better line-up than the White Sox, but their pitching has much less depth than the White Sox have. While it's true the White Sox have no true ace, every pitcher in their rotation is average or better -- something no other team in their division can claim to have.
American League West: Oakland Athletics
This division is the most difficult in the AL for me to predict. All three of the contending teams in this division (Athletics, Rangers, and Angels) all made some fairly large changes this offseason, and the number of changes made are sometimes hard to predict. However, I feel that the Athletics most effectively addressed their problems this off-season, and as a result will have a well-banced team capable of taking the division next year. Their additions of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham, not to mention the potential that rookie slugger Chris Carter has, should give them a much-improved line-up. The Athletics have the best pitching staff in the AL West, and quite possibly in the American League, so that should not be an issue.
American League Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays
While it's true the Rays lost two of their more productive hitters in Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, not to mention their closer in Rafael Soriano, I still believe the Rays are capable of winning 90+ games and winning the Wild Card. The Rays, despite having traded Matt Garza, have an excellent rotation with rookie Jeremy Hellickson likely to take Garza's spot in the rotation. Hellickson performed well last year, and it is difficult to doubt young Rays pitchers right now given how well every single one of them has performed in the major leagues. The Rays line-up will be severely diminished, but they have a fairly capable rookie in Desmond Jennings who will take Crawford's post. They also added Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, who should prove to be fairly productive in whatever role they are given. While a team like the Yankees clearly has a better line-up, a commmon adage is that "good pitching beats good hitting", and the Rays clearly have the Yankees beat in that respect.
National League East: Atlanta Braves
With the news that Chase Utley may be out for the entire season, the Braves seem to be the best team in the division. The Phillies may have a ridiculously stacked rotation, but their line-up has been severely depleted with the losses of Jayson Werth and Chase Utley. The left-handed heavy line-up will have a hard time winning consistently on top of having to rely on aging stars like Jimmy Rollins. This is not to say that the Phillies will not still be good, I just believe that the Braves will be able to be better this year with their upgraded line-up and always-good pitching staff.
National League Central: St. Louis Cardinals
In what is possibly Albert Pujols' last season on the Cardinals, I think the Cardinals should be able to take the division. The Brewers made some major upgrades, but recent injury news involving both star pitchers they added (Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum) makes me back off a little on predicting them to win their division. The Cardinals have their own injury problems in the starting rotation (Adam Wainwright), but they still have Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia as a solid one and two, and plenty of guys to take the ball behind them. The Brewers do not have that same luxury.
National League West: Colorado Rockies
Just as the West is hard to predict in the American League, it is equally difficult to predict in the National League due to the fact that many of the teams in many ways seem equally matched, with no clear dominant team. However, I feel over the course of a long season, the Colorado Rockies probably have the capacity to most consistently win. The emergence of Carlos Gonzalez last season, and a full season of Troy Tulowitzki (hopefully), both point towards a great line-up this season. Ubaldo Jimenez also showed what he could do last season, and while the starting rotation is very likely the wek point for this team, most of the other teams in their division also do not have overwhelming strength in this area, making their better line-up the determining factor.
National League Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies.
I feel that, just as last season, the Phillies and Braves are quite possibly interchangable between the Wild Card and the NL East Title. However, as I stated above in my discussion of the Braves, I feel the Braves are the better team this year. However, given their dominant rotation, the Phillies seem likely to win the most games of all non-division winners this year.
Anyway, that's it for now.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Minor League Equivalency 2
Last year, I made a post where I used the Minor League Equivalency calcutor to calculate the stats of various rookies who were projected to start last year. Looking at last year's post, you can probably notice that it is certainly not a perfect calculator -- but it is not as if it was completely wrong, especially in the cases of Jason Heyward and Austin Jackson. Also, it doesn't help that I completely overlooked Buster Posey, but such things happen.
Anyway, the point is I thought I would do the same this season, and see what the calculator says certain up and coming rookies will do this season. To remind you, the calculator uses stats from a given level of the minor leagues and projects it out to the Major League level, based on some advanced algorithm. It should be noted that the calculator only works for position players, so I can't gauge potential rookies of the year like Jeremy Hellickson and Aroldis Chapman.
Just like last year, I am going to start with an Atlanta Braves rookie. This time, though, it's going to be Freddie Freeman who is currently slated to start at 1B for the Braves.
Freeman, who had an excellent season last year at AAA Gwinnett, projects out to a .270/.319/.428 line with 14 homers, 29 doubles, and 67 RBIs. His low OBP is mostly a product of his K/BB rate -- freeman strikes out almost twice as often as he walks, even in the minors. The Calculator projects it to get even worse in the majors, but if Freeman can improve on that, he will certainly be in line for a solid rookie season especially for an age 21 season.
Next up is the Phillies' Outfielder Domonic Brown. His name is one of the hotter rookie names heard this offseason. But does he deserve the praise he is getting? It should be noted that it seems likely given a crowded Phillies outfield, that he starts in a platoon role or in Triple A. However, given his reputation as an excellent 5-tool top prospect, I would be shocked to see him work his way into an every day role this season.
Here is how the calculator feels he would do in a full season: .264/.325/.502, 22 homers, 38 Doubles, 20 SB, 66 RBIs. The Calculator seems to feel that Brown has an excellent chance to mash a huge number of extra base hits next season if he plays full time, while also having him just barely obtaining a 20-20 season his rookie year, which would probably make him a lock for the Rookie of the Year if he puts up these numbers. Like Freeman, Brown is plagued by a horrible walk to strikeout rate, resulting in his low average and OBP in the majors. Unlike Freeman, despite those problems, the Calculator indicates that Brown's ability to slug (a .502 SLG for a rookie is huge), likely will make him a heavily contributing player without a high OBP.
Next is much talked about successor to Jorge Posada, Yankees catcher Jesus Montero. It seems likely that he ends up sharing some time with Russel Martin this year, but given his impressive performance in the minors last year, he is fully expected to become the primary catcher for the Yankees by next year if not sooner. Here is the calculator's full-season projection for Montero, based on his impressive season in the minors last year: .250/.304/.429 with 17 homers, 29 doubles, and 59 RBIs. Like the two young hitters discussed above, Montero has a major problem with the strike out that leads to a hamstrung average and OBP. Despite this, for a 21-year-old catcher, even if Montero only does what this projection believes he will do, those are pretty solid numbers. Numbers that the Yankees can only assume will get better.
For this season, those three seem to me to be the most likely position playing rookies to get a fair number of at bats next season. All three of them are projected to have at the very least, a league-average season for a rookie. Domonic Brown, if he is able to get the at-bats and live up to his five-tool hype, certainly looks to be the most dominant of these three players for the 2011 season, and quite possibly in the future.
Anyway, the point is I thought I would do the same this season, and see what the calculator says certain up and coming rookies will do this season. To remind you, the calculator uses stats from a given level of the minor leagues and projects it out to the Major League level, based on some advanced algorithm. It should be noted that the calculator only works for position players, so I can't gauge potential rookies of the year like Jeremy Hellickson and Aroldis Chapman.
Just like last year, I am going to start with an Atlanta Braves rookie. This time, though, it's going to be Freddie Freeman who is currently slated to start at 1B for the Braves.
Freeman, who had an excellent season last year at AAA Gwinnett, projects out to a .270/.319/.428 line with 14 homers, 29 doubles, and 67 RBIs. His low OBP is mostly a product of his K/BB rate -- freeman strikes out almost twice as often as he walks, even in the minors. The Calculator projects it to get even worse in the majors, but if Freeman can improve on that, he will certainly be in line for a solid rookie season especially for an age 21 season.
Next up is the Phillies' Outfielder Domonic Brown. His name is one of the hotter rookie names heard this offseason. But does he deserve the praise he is getting? It should be noted that it seems likely given a crowded Phillies outfield, that he starts in a platoon role or in Triple A. However, given his reputation as an excellent 5-tool top prospect, I would be shocked to see him work his way into an every day role this season.
Here is how the calculator feels he would do in a full season: .264/.325/.502, 22 homers, 38 Doubles, 20 SB, 66 RBIs. The Calculator seems to feel that Brown has an excellent chance to mash a huge number of extra base hits next season if he plays full time, while also having him just barely obtaining a 20-20 season his rookie year, which would probably make him a lock for the Rookie of the Year if he puts up these numbers. Like Freeman, Brown is plagued by a horrible walk to strikeout rate, resulting in his low average and OBP in the majors. Unlike Freeman, despite those problems, the Calculator indicates that Brown's ability to slug (a .502 SLG for a rookie is huge), likely will make him a heavily contributing player without a high OBP.
Next is much talked about successor to Jorge Posada, Yankees catcher Jesus Montero. It seems likely that he ends up sharing some time with Russel Martin this year, but given his impressive performance in the minors last year, he is fully expected to become the primary catcher for the Yankees by next year if not sooner. Here is the calculator's full-season projection for Montero, based on his impressive season in the minors last year: .250/.304/.429 with 17 homers, 29 doubles, and 59 RBIs. Like the two young hitters discussed above, Montero has a major problem with the strike out that leads to a hamstrung average and OBP. Despite this, for a 21-year-old catcher, even if Montero only does what this projection believes he will do, those are pretty solid numbers. Numbers that the Yankees can only assume will get better.
For this season, those three seem to me to be the most likely position playing rookies to get a fair number of at bats next season. All three of them are projected to have at the very least, a league-average season for a rookie. Domonic Brown, if he is able to get the at-bats and live up to his five-tool hype, certainly looks to be the most dominant of these three players for the 2011 season, and quite possibly in the future.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Albert Pujols: The LeBron James of Baseball?
I have seen a lot of comparisons on the internet, and heard some of them in person, of LeBron James and Albert Pujols. Of course, these comparisons hinge on the fact that Pujols and the Cardinals did not come to an agreement before the end of Pujols' self-imposed deadline. I am here to refute the fact that Pujols is anything like LeBron James, even if Pujols does end up leaving the Cardinals for the Cubs or some other team.
1. Pujols hasn't even left yet, and he may not.
He imposed his deadline because now he just wants to focus on playing, something that is certainly respectable. There is still some chance that Pujols gets signed during the exclusive free agency period where the Cardinals can be the only team to talk to him. It's also possbile the Cardinals could retain him after he can talk to anyone. So, obviously, the fact that Pujols hasn't even left and spurned the team he spent years with, is a pretty big difference. Granted, it could be a temporary difference.
2. The Cardinals did not offer him anything close to market value.
Now, I'm not anywhere close to being an expert on basketball, but as I recall the Cavaliers actually offered James MORE money than the Heat did, making this comparison less valid. If you believe the reports, the Cardinals offered Pujols something like 8 years at $21m a year. Now, this sounds like a lot of money to you and me, but it's important to note what lesser (but still clearly very good) First Basemen are being paid right now:
Mark Teixeira - 22.5m/year
Ryan Howard - $25m/year
Who in their right mind, would give Pujols a serious offer that makes him only the third highest player at his position? I have a serious feeling that if Pujols were just offered market value ($26m/year, which would still be a home town discount) as the best first basemen in the game, he would probably take the deal. The reason this varies so much from LeBron James, is that it is not as if Pujols was offered an extremely fair deal for his "talents" like LeBron was, the Cardinals were trying to severely underpay him.
3. Pujols helped the Cardinals win a championship.
Clearly something LeBron James never did for the Cavaliers. Unlike with James, it is not as if Pujols did not bring his city greatest reward in all of his respective sport. It stands to reason, similarly, that Cardinals fans will not be nearly as vociferous towards Pujols as Cavaliers fans are towards LeBron, given this fact. I am not saying they won't be hostile -- they probably will be if he leaves, just not AS hostile.
4. The Cardinals before Pujols were not perennial losers.
The Cavaliers, throughout NBA history before LeBron James, were a horrible team. The St. Louis Cardinals are far from it. If you didn't know, the Cardinals have the second most championships of any MLB team with 10 World Series Championships. They won 9 of those without Pujols. The fact that the Cardinals are known for winning also makes the comparison difficult. Pujols is not the one bright light in the history of the franchise that everyone hopes will win them a championship some day. As I stated earlier, Pujols already helped them win one championship, and they won many more without him.
5. Pujols is not the only superstar on the team
In case you forgot, the Cardinals also have Matt Holliday and an extremely good starting rotation. Not to mention a steadily rising star in Colby Rasmus. The Cardinals would certainly be able to reload if they lost Pujols -- they do not have all of their eggs in one basket like the Cavaliers did.
Anyway, that's it for now. It will be interesting to see where Pujols lands next witner.
1. Pujols hasn't even left yet, and he may not.
He imposed his deadline because now he just wants to focus on playing, something that is certainly respectable. There is still some chance that Pujols gets signed during the exclusive free agency period where the Cardinals can be the only team to talk to him. It's also possbile the Cardinals could retain him after he can talk to anyone. So, obviously, the fact that Pujols hasn't even left and spurned the team he spent years with, is a pretty big difference. Granted, it could be a temporary difference.
2. The Cardinals did not offer him anything close to market value.
Now, I'm not anywhere close to being an expert on basketball, but as I recall the Cavaliers actually offered James MORE money than the Heat did, making this comparison less valid. If you believe the reports, the Cardinals offered Pujols something like 8 years at $21m a year. Now, this sounds like a lot of money to you and me, but it's important to note what lesser (but still clearly very good) First Basemen are being paid right now:
Mark Teixeira - 22.5m/year
Ryan Howard - $25m/year
Who in their right mind, would give Pujols a serious offer that makes him only the third highest player at his position? I have a serious feeling that if Pujols were just offered market value ($26m/year, which would still be a home town discount) as the best first basemen in the game, he would probably take the deal. The reason this varies so much from LeBron James, is that it is not as if Pujols was offered an extremely fair deal for his "talents" like LeBron was, the Cardinals were trying to severely underpay him.
3. Pujols helped the Cardinals win a championship.
Clearly something LeBron James never did for the Cavaliers. Unlike with James, it is not as if Pujols did not bring his city greatest reward in all of his respective sport. It stands to reason, similarly, that Cardinals fans will not be nearly as vociferous towards Pujols as Cavaliers fans are towards LeBron, given this fact. I am not saying they won't be hostile -- they probably will be if he leaves, just not AS hostile.
4. The Cardinals before Pujols were not perennial losers.
The Cavaliers, throughout NBA history before LeBron James, were a horrible team. The St. Louis Cardinals are far from it. If you didn't know, the Cardinals have the second most championships of any MLB team with 10 World Series Championships. They won 9 of those without Pujols. The fact that the Cardinals are known for winning also makes the comparison difficult. Pujols is not the one bright light in the history of the franchise that everyone hopes will win them a championship some day. As I stated earlier, Pujols already helped them win one championship, and they won many more without him.
5. Pujols is not the only superstar on the team
In case you forgot, the Cardinals also have Matt Holliday and an extremely good starting rotation. Not to mention a steadily rising star in Colby Rasmus. The Cardinals would certainly be able to reload if they lost Pujols -- they do not have all of their eggs in one basket like the Cavaliers did.
Anyway, that's it for now. It will be interesting to see where Pujols lands next witner.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Biggest Winners of the Offseason
Since nothing of great magnitude is going on in the baseball world, except for the ongoing Michael Young situation and the Albert Pujols contract negotation -- both of which may be worth writing a blog about if they ever develop into anything, I figured I'd use this week's post to talk the teams who I feel are the top 5 winners of the offseason.
It should be noted that I consider a team "winners" if they see needs on their team and effectively address them, this may lead to my results being a little bit different than you would expect. For instance, up front I am going to state that I did not include the Philadelphia Phillies as "winners", for the fact that they lost an important part of their line-up in Jayson Werth, and now have a left-handed heavy lineup with absolutely no right-handed pop -- Cliff Lee or no Cliff Lee. Also, it's important to note that whoever the "winners" are of the offseason may not be the winners of the regular season. Things on paper frequently appear better than the real thing.
Top 5 Winners
5. Chicago White Sox
Biggest Offseason moves:
-Signed Adam Dunn 1B/OF/DH to 4 year/$56 million contract.
-Signed 1B Paul Konerko to a 3 year/$37 million contract
-Signed 2B/SS Alexei Ramirez to a 4 year/$32.5 million extension.
Why they are winners: While it's true alot of what the White Sox did tihs off-season was simply make sure a couple of their cornerstone players were locked up for a while, that in itself can be a big move. Ramirez is one of the better infielders in baseball, and has the ability to play 2B or SS. While he has not quite had a 20-20 season, there seems to be one in his near future. It's true that Konerko is aging, but chances are he will outperform a countract that really does not overpay him. He is essentially a lock for 28+ homers, and is a force in the middle of that line-up, and he will probably benefit to some degree from the addition of Adam Dunn. Dunn is the type of power threat that is becoming increasingly rare in major league baseball, being a lock for homers in the upper 30s. While Dunn is certainly a liability in the field, he will benefit from playing the majority of his games at DH. In short, the White Sox have not lost anyone from their fairly effective team last year, and have strengthened their line-up greatly with the addition of Dunn.
4. Detroit Tigers
Biggest Offseason Moves:
-Signed C/1B Victor Martinez to a 4 year/$50m contract.
-Signed RP Joaquin Benoit to a 3 year/$15m contract.
-Signed SP Brad Penny to a 1 year/$3m contract
Why they are winners: The Tigers were in desperate need of someone in the line-up who can hit who is not named Miguel Cabrera, some depth in their bullpen, and some depth in their starting rotation. Clearly, these three signings address those issues. Martinez is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball -- though it seems likely the Tigers will have him spend at least one-third of his time at DH or first base. The addition of Martinez takes some pressure off of Miguel Cabrera (not that he doesn't thrive under it), and also gives him at least some degree of protection in the line-up. On the whole, the Tigers line-up will be much better with the Switch-hitting Martinez in the line-up. While I kind of feel like the Tigers gave Benoit more years than they should given, given the volatility of relief pitchers, Benoit has for the most part been an effective relief pitcher in his career, and will help their bullpen. Brad Penny is clearly a low-risk high-reward type of player given his recent injury history and ineffectiveness at times, but while he was healthy last year, he pitched very well for the Cardinals. If he can make 30 starts this year, he will be a big help to the rotation.
3. Oakland Athletics
Biggest Offseason Moves:
-Traded for OF Josh Willingham
-Signed DH Hideki Matsui to a 1 year/4.25m contract.
-Traded for OF David DeJesus.
-Signed Brian Fuentes to a 2 year/$10.5m contract.
Why they are winners: The Oakland Athletics, believe it or not, had the best starting rotation in baseball last year as far as ERA goes, but they still didn't come close to making the postseason. It seems that Billy Beane has responded by adding some undervalued players that could really contribute to their extremely weak line-up from last year. Willingham, Matsui, and DeJesus all represent significant upgrades to their line-up. Willingham and Matsui's power may suffer a little bit given the dimensions that theyw ill now be playing in, but despite that, they should contribute a fair percentage of the home runs that this team has come season's end. DeJesus is a classic example of a player who does everything well, but is not outstanding in any aspect of his game, and his numbers should not suffer at all from moving.
Brian Fuentes strengthens their bullpen with a veteran pitcher, and he could also close if the situation calls for it, something that is not completely out of the question given Andrew Bailey's injuries last year.
Given their upgrades, the Oakland Athletics stand to be this year's San Francisco Giants.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest Offseason Moves:
-Trading Prospects for SP Zack Greinke.
-Trading Prospects for SP Shaun Marcum
Why they are winners: The Brewers have gotten a lot of criticism for not extening Prince Fielder this offseason, but to some degree I feel it is a good move on their part. Fielder is goign to ask for a Ryan Howard-sized deal, and the Brewers can simply not afford that. Additionally, Fielder is not a player who projects to be great for a long period of time.
So, the Brewers, knowing they cannot afford to extend Fielder, decided to try to contend this year in the last year that Fielder will be no the team. The Brewers had an awful starting rotation last year, so they have added a legitimate number 1 and number 2 starter to the mix. Both Marcum and Greinke have good track records, and should perform well for the Brewers. The Brewers stand to have an excellent bounceback year if their line-up performs as it did last year and their revamped rotation pitches up to expectations.
1. Boston Red Sox
-Traded for 1B Adrian Gonzalez, with a long-term extension all but signed according to reports.
-Signed Carl Crawford to a 7 year/$142m contract.
-Signed Bobby Jenks to a 2 year/$12m contract.
Why they are winners: Almost everyone agrees the Red Sox won the offseason, so this should come as no surprise. The Red Sox had to fill the voids left by Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, and they did so admirably. Talks of the Red Sox trading for Adrian Gonzalez had been literally going on for two years, and it finally happened. The Red Sox also shocked everyone by signing Carl Crawford. The Red Sox line-up should be at least as good as it was last year, despite the losses of Beltre and Martinez. The Red Sox, in addition to Bobby Jenks, signed a number of bullpen arms (Dan Wheeler, etc,.) having effectively reconstructed what was one of the worst bullpens in the major leagues last year. Jenks can also close if Papelbon gets injured or continues to slide towards ineffectiveness, though it seems likely the Red Sox would give Daniel Bard a shot at closing first.
On paper, it is arguable that the Red Sox are the best team in the American League. But as I stated at the beginning of this, there are still 162 games for the Red Sox, and all of these other offseason "winners" to play.
I figure I will also post my list of offseason "losers", albeit without analysis. Leave a comment if you are interested as to why certain teams made the list:
5. San Francisco Giants
4. Seattle Mariners
3. Cleveland Indians
2. New York Yankees
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Have a good week everyone, Spring Training is almost here!
It should be noted that I consider a team "winners" if they see needs on their team and effectively address them, this may lead to my results being a little bit different than you would expect. For instance, up front I am going to state that I did not include the Philadelphia Phillies as "winners", for the fact that they lost an important part of their line-up in Jayson Werth, and now have a left-handed heavy lineup with absolutely no right-handed pop -- Cliff Lee or no Cliff Lee. Also, it's important to note that whoever the "winners" are of the offseason may not be the winners of the regular season. Things on paper frequently appear better than the real thing.
Top 5 Winners
5. Chicago White Sox
Biggest Offseason moves:
-Signed Adam Dunn 1B/OF/DH to 4 year/$56 million contract.
-Signed 1B Paul Konerko to a 3 year/$37 million contract
-Signed 2B/SS Alexei Ramirez to a 4 year/$32.5 million extension.
Why they are winners: While it's true alot of what the White Sox did tihs off-season was simply make sure a couple of their cornerstone players were locked up for a while, that in itself can be a big move. Ramirez is one of the better infielders in baseball, and has the ability to play 2B or SS. While he has not quite had a 20-20 season, there seems to be one in his near future. It's true that Konerko is aging, but chances are he will outperform a countract that really does not overpay him. He is essentially a lock for 28+ homers, and is a force in the middle of that line-up, and he will probably benefit to some degree from the addition of Adam Dunn. Dunn is the type of power threat that is becoming increasingly rare in major league baseball, being a lock for homers in the upper 30s. While Dunn is certainly a liability in the field, he will benefit from playing the majority of his games at DH. In short, the White Sox have not lost anyone from their fairly effective team last year, and have strengthened their line-up greatly with the addition of Dunn.
4. Detroit Tigers
Biggest Offseason Moves:
-Signed C/1B Victor Martinez to a 4 year/$50m contract.
-Signed RP Joaquin Benoit to a 3 year/$15m contract.
-Signed SP Brad Penny to a 1 year/$3m contract
Why they are winners: The Tigers were in desperate need of someone in the line-up who can hit who is not named Miguel Cabrera, some depth in their bullpen, and some depth in their starting rotation. Clearly, these three signings address those issues. Martinez is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball -- though it seems likely the Tigers will have him spend at least one-third of his time at DH or first base. The addition of Martinez takes some pressure off of Miguel Cabrera (not that he doesn't thrive under it), and also gives him at least some degree of protection in the line-up. On the whole, the Tigers line-up will be much better with the Switch-hitting Martinez in the line-up. While I kind of feel like the Tigers gave Benoit more years than they should given, given the volatility of relief pitchers, Benoit has for the most part been an effective relief pitcher in his career, and will help their bullpen. Brad Penny is clearly a low-risk high-reward type of player given his recent injury history and ineffectiveness at times, but while he was healthy last year, he pitched very well for the Cardinals. If he can make 30 starts this year, he will be a big help to the rotation.
3. Oakland Athletics
Biggest Offseason Moves:
-Traded for OF Josh Willingham
-Signed DH Hideki Matsui to a 1 year/4.25m contract.
-Traded for OF David DeJesus.
-Signed Brian Fuentes to a 2 year/$10.5m contract.
Why they are winners: The Oakland Athletics, believe it or not, had the best starting rotation in baseball last year as far as ERA goes, but they still didn't come close to making the postseason. It seems that Billy Beane has responded by adding some undervalued players that could really contribute to their extremely weak line-up from last year. Willingham, Matsui, and DeJesus all represent significant upgrades to their line-up. Willingham and Matsui's power may suffer a little bit given the dimensions that theyw ill now be playing in, but despite that, they should contribute a fair percentage of the home runs that this team has come season's end. DeJesus is a classic example of a player who does everything well, but is not outstanding in any aspect of his game, and his numbers should not suffer at all from moving.
Brian Fuentes strengthens their bullpen with a veteran pitcher, and he could also close if the situation calls for it, something that is not completely out of the question given Andrew Bailey's injuries last year.
Given their upgrades, the Oakland Athletics stand to be this year's San Francisco Giants.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest Offseason Moves:
-Trading Prospects for SP Zack Greinke.
-Trading Prospects for SP Shaun Marcum
Why they are winners: The Brewers have gotten a lot of criticism for not extening Prince Fielder this offseason, but to some degree I feel it is a good move on their part. Fielder is goign to ask for a Ryan Howard-sized deal, and the Brewers can simply not afford that. Additionally, Fielder is not a player who projects to be great for a long period of time.
So, the Brewers, knowing they cannot afford to extend Fielder, decided to try to contend this year in the last year that Fielder will be no the team. The Brewers had an awful starting rotation last year, so they have added a legitimate number 1 and number 2 starter to the mix. Both Marcum and Greinke have good track records, and should perform well for the Brewers. The Brewers stand to have an excellent bounceback year if their line-up performs as it did last year and their revamped rotation pitches up to expectations.
1. Boston Red Sox
-Traded for 1B Adrian Gonzalez, with a long-term extension all but signed according to reports.
-Signed Carl Crawford to a 7 year/$142m contract.
-Signed Bobby Jenks to a 2 year/$12m contract.
Why they are winners: Almost everyone agrees the Red Sox won the offseason, so this should come as no surprise. The Red Sox had to fill the voids left by Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, and they did so admirably. Talks of the Red Sox trading for Adrian Gonzalez had been literally going on for two years, and it finally happened. The Red Sox also shocked everyone by signing Carl Crawford. The Red Sox line-up should be at least as good as it was last year, despite the losses of Beltre and Martinez. The Red Sox, in addition to Bobby Jenks, signed a number of bullpen arms (Dan Wheeler, etc,.) having effectively reconstructed what was one of the worst bullpens in the major leagues last year. Jenks can also close if Papelbon gets injured or continues to slide towards ineffectiveness, though it seems likely the Red Sox would give Daniel Bard a shot at closing first.
On paper, it is arguable that the Red Sox are the best team in the American League. But as I stated at the beginning of this, there are still 162 games for the Red Sox, and all of these other offseason "winners" to play.
I figure I will also post my list of offseason "losers", albeit without analysis. Leave a comment if you are interested as to why certain teams made the list:
5. San Francisco Giants
4. Seattle Mariners
3. Cleveland Indians
2. New York Yankees
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Have a good week everyone, Spring Training is almost here!
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