Given that Opening Day is only a couple of weeks away, I thought I'd take a post to make my predictions for divisional and Wild Card winners for the upcoming season. If you are curious about my predictions from last season, you can find them here. Remember, these are only predictions. If you feel I am completely wrong about something, let me know what you think.
American League East: Boston Red Sox.
It's fairly hard to find anyone making pre-season predictions where they dont' feel the Red Sox will win their division. Given their line-up upgrades (Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez), bullpen upgrades (Dan Wheeler, Bobby Jenks) and an expected return to health, it's hard to foresee the Red Sox not winning the division, especially with the Yankees looking weaker than they have in recent years. Also of note is the fact that the Red Sox managed to win 89 games last year despite losing Pedroia in June for the entire season, Victor Martinez for a 6 weeks, Youkilis for 8 weeks, and so on. Even without the upgrades they made, the Red Sox would be a much improved team.
American League Central: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox really only made one major addition this offseason in the form of Adam Dunn. However, their fellow AL Central leaguers made even less progress. The White Sox, of all of the teams in the division, have the best balance between offense and pitching (which is what I based my prediction that the Rangers would win the AL West last season on). The Tigers line-up has been improved, but is still inferior to what the White Sox can put out there. The Twins made very few upgrades this season, and probably have a slightly better line-up than the White Sox, but their pitching has much less depth than the White Sox have. While it's true the White Sox have no true ace, every pitcher in their rotation is average or better -- something no other team in their division can claim to have.
American League West: Oakland Athletics
This division is the most difficult in the AL for me to predict. All three of the contending teams in this division (Athletics, Rangers, and Angels) all made some fairly large changes this offseason, and the number of changes made are sometimes hard to predict. However, I feel that the Athletics most effectively addressed their problems this off-season, and as a result will have a well-banced team capable of taking the division next year. Their additions of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham, not to mention the potential that rookie slugger Chris Carter has, should give them a much-improved line-up. The Athletics have the best pitching staff in the AL West, and quite possibly in the American League, so that should not be an issue.
American League Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays
While it's true the Rays lost two of their more productive hitters in Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, not to mention their closer in Rafael Soriano, I still believe the Rays are capable of winning 90+ games and winning the Wild Card. The Rays, despite having traded Matt Garza, have an excellent rotation with rookie Jeremy Hellickson likely to take Garza's spot in the rotation. Hellickson performed well last year, and it is difficult to doubt young Rays pitchers right now given how well every single one of them has performed in the major leagues. The Rays line-up will be severely diminished, but they have a fairly capable rookie in Desmond Jennings who will take Crawford's post. They also added Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, who should prove to be fairly productive in whatever role they are given. While a team like the Yankees clearly has a better line-up, a commmon adage is that "good pitching beats good hitting", and the Rays clearly have the Yankees beat in that respect.
National League East: Atlanta Braves
With the news that Chase Utley may be out for the entire season, the Braves seem to be the best team in the division. The Phillies may have a ridiculously stacked rotation, but their line-up has been severely depleted with the losses of Jayson Werth and Chase Utley. The left-handed heavy line-up will have a hard time winning consistently on top of having to rely on aging stars like Jimmy Rollins. This is not to say that the Phillies will not still be good, I just believe that the Braves will be able to be better this year with their upgraded line-up and always-good pitching staff.
National League Central: St. Louis Cardinals
In what is possibly Albert Pujols' last season on the Cardinals, I think the Cardinals should be able to take the division. The Brewers made some major upgrades, but recent injury news involving both star pitchers they added (Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum) makes me back off a little on predicting them to win their division. The Cardinals have their own injury problems in the starting rotation (Adam Wainwright), but they still have Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia as a solid one and two, and plenty of guys to take the ball behind them. The Brewers do not have that same luxury.
National League West: Colorado Rockies
Just as the West is hard to predict in the American League, it is equally difficult to predict in the National League due to the fact that many of the teams in many ways seem equally matched, with no clear dominant team. However, I feel over the course of a long season, the Colorado Rockies probably have the capacity to most consistently win. The emergence of Carlos Gonzalez last season, and a full season of Troy Tulowitzki (hopefully), both point towards a great line-up this season. Ubaldo Jimenez also showed what he could do last season, and while the starting rotation is very likely the wek point for this team, most of the other teams in their division also do not have overwhelming strength in this area, making their better line-up the determining factor.
National League Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies.
I feel that, just as last season, the Phillies and Braves are quite possibly interchangable between the Wild Card and the NL East Title. However, as I stated above in my discussion of the Braves, I feel the Braves are the better team this year. However, given their dominant rotation, the Phillies seem likely to win the most games of all non-division winners this year.
Anyway, that's it for now.
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Awards Predictions
Hope everyone is enjoying the end of their weekend. I thought I'd go out on a limb today and make a few more predictions that will probably make me look like a fool by the end of the season. This time with awards predictions, something even harder to predict than teams that will play in the postseason. Once again, keep in mind I am simply making predictions based on who I feel is the most likely to win the award.
Anyway, let's get these predictions out there.
American League
MVP Award Prediction: Mark Teixeira (NYY)
The numbers that Teixeira put up last year would typically be enough to win the MVP. Unfortunatley for him, a certain man in Minnesota batted .365 and won the modern triple crown (Batting Average, On-Base percentage, Slugging Percentage), making it pretty hard for him to win. Barring an unexpectedly great season from someone else, Teixeira seems likely a good bet to win the award. It also helps that he plays in New York, which gets a lot of love from the voters, and pretty much guarantees his team will make the post season. If you haven't noticed, almost every MVP award winner the last 10 years has been on a team playing in the post season.
Honorable Mention: Evan Longoria (TBR)
If Evan Longoria can continue on an upward slope as he has thus far in his career, he could easily put up Teixeira-esque numbers. If Longoria can hit around 40 Home Runs (which he seems perfectly capable of) and manage to help the Rays either win the division or the Wild Card, I could see him winning the award.
AL Cy Young Award Prediction: Felix Hernandez (SEA)
Hernandez has been pretty dominant in his career, and managed to finish second in Cy Young Award voting last year. Kind of like Teixeira, the only reason he didn't win the award was because of a completely ridiculous season out of someone else. Granted, that's usually who wins the award, but I think if anyone has a ridiculous season this year it will be Hernandez. He will only be 24 this year, and even if he doesn't win it this year, there is definitely a Cy Young Award in this impressive guy's future. The one thing that might hold him back this year is a lack of run support from a weak looking Seattle Mariners offense, which might lead to a reduction in Wins for Hernandez. Luckily, it seems like the voters have finally realized that Wins aren't the best stat for evlauting a pitcher, as Greinke's Cy Young win last year indicates.
AL Rookie of the Year Prediction: Wade Davis (TBR)
Wade Davis is part of the reason the Rays felt comfortable in trading Edwin Jackson. Wade Davis has been completely dominant in the minor leagues and has showcased dominant stuff in his time so far in the major leagues. He also has the comforts of a powerful offense, meaning he will be in fewer pressure situations and get more Wins than most rookies would.
National League
NL MVP Award Prediction: Albert Pujols (STL)
Yeah, it's kind of the easy way out, but obviously he has the best chance of doing it. In my opinion Pujols is the greatest player currently playing in the major leagues, and the likelihood of him putting up yet another monster season and winning his fourth MVP award are very high. The scariest thing about the numbers he put up last year is the fact that he actually had some elbow problems that he finally had fixed during the off-season. Could we see 50 homers out of Pujols this season to go along with his typically ridiculous .320+ batting average?
NL Cy Young Award Prediction: Roy Halladay (PHI)
The numbers that Halladay has put up every season in the AL East have been completely ridiculous. Halladay has thrown more complete games in the last 5 years than anyone else, and also has more shut outs. He also Most people feel that the AL East is the strongest division in baseball, and he still put up those numbers. He also managed to win 149 games over the last 10 years despite not always having the best offense behind him, with the Phillies he won't have that problem. Halladay also won't have to worry about facing a DH in NL line-ups. I could see Halladay easily winning more than 20 games in Philadelphia.
NL Rookie of the Year Award: Jason Heyward (ATL)
Heyward's potential seems pretty limitless, and he is drawing comparisons to another 20-year-old starter named Miguel Cabrera. If Heyward can put up numbers like .280/.350/.465 with about 20 homers he should be a lock for the award. It is not unfathomable that his numbers will not be even better than that. Alcides Escobar and Gaby Sanchez are the only other high-ceiling rookies who seem like candidates for the award, and they don't have near the potential Heyward does. Notice I didn't mention Stephen Strasburg, because I don't think he will make enough starts to win the award, if he makes any at all.
It will be interesting to see how many of these I managed to guess correctly come the end of the year (my guess is probably about 1). That's all for now.
Anyway, let's get these predictions out there.
American League
MVP Award Prediction: Mark Teixeira (NYY)
The numbers that Teixeira put up last year would typically be enough to win the MVP. Unfortunatley for him, a certain man in Minnesota batted .365 and won the modern triple crown (Batting Average, On-Base percentage, Slugging Percentage), making it pretty hard for him to win. Barring an unexpectedly great season from someone else, Teixeira seems likely a good bet to win the award. It also helps that he plays in New York, which gets a lot of love from the voters, and pretty much guarantees his team will make the post season. If you haven't noticed, almost every MVP award winner the last 10 years has been on a team playing in the post season.
Honorable Mention: Evan Longoria (TBR)
If Evan Longoria can continue on an upward slope as he has thus far in his career, he could easily put up Teixeira-esque numbers. If Longoria can hit around 40 Home Runs (which he seems perfectly capable of) and manage to help the Rays either win the division or the Wild Card, I could see him winning the award.
AL Cy Young Award Prediction: Felix Hernandez (SEA)
Hernandez has been pretty dominant in his career, and managed to finish second in Cy Young Award voting last year. Kind of like Teixeira, the only reason he didn't win the award was because of a completely ridiculous season out of someone else. Granted, that's usually who wins the award, but I think if anyone has a ridiculous season this year it will be Hernandez. He will only be 24 this year, and even if he doesn't win it this year, there is definitely a Cy Young Award in this impressive guy's future. The one thing that might hold him back this year is a lack of run support from a weak looking Seattle Mariners offense, which might lead to a reduction in Wins for Hernandez. Luckily, it seems like the voters have finally realized that Wins aren't the best stat for evlauting a pitcher, as Greinke's Cy Young win last year indicates.
AL Rookie of the Year Prediction: Wade Davis (TBR)
Wade Davis is part of the reason the Rays felt comfortable in trading Edwin Jackson. Wade Davis has been completely dominant in the minor leagues and has showcased dominant stuff in his time so far in the major leagues. He also has the comforts of a powerful offense, meaning he will be in fewer pressure situations and get more Wins than most rookies would.
National League
NL MVP Award Prediction: Albert Pujols (STL)
Yeah, it's kind of the easy way out, but obviously he has the best chance of doing it. In my opinion Pujols is the greatest player currently playing in the major leagues, and the likelihood of him putting up yet another monster season and winning his fourth MVP award are very high. The scariest thing about the numbers he put up last year is the fact that he actually had some elbow problems that he finally had fixed during the off-season. Could we see 50 homers out of Pujols this season to go along with his typically ridiculous .320+ batting average?
NL Cy Young Award Prediction: Roy Halladay (PHI)
The numbers that Halladay has put up every season in the AL East have been completely ridiculous. Halladay has thrown more complete games in the last 5 years than anyone else, and also has more shut outs. He also Most people feel that the AL East is the strongest division in baseball, and he still put up those numbers. He also managed to win 149 games over the last 10 years despite not always having the best offense behind him, with the Phillies he won't have that problem. Halladay also won't have to worry about facing a DH in NL line-ups. I could see Halladay easily winning more than 20 games in Philadelphia.
NL Rookie of the Year Award: Jason Heyward (ATL)
Heyward's potential seems pretty limitless, and he is drawing comparisons to another 20-year-old starter named Miguel Cabrera. If Heyward can put up numbers like .280/.350/.465 with about 20 homers he should be a lock for the award. It is not unfathomable that his numbers will not be even better than that. Alcides Escobar and Gaby Sanchez are the only other high-ceiling rookies who seem like candidates for the award, and they don't have near the potential Heyward does. Notice I didn't mention Stephen Strasburg, because I don't think he will make enough starts to win the award, if he makes any at all.
It will be interesting to see how many of these I managed to guess correctly come the end of the year (my guess is probably about 1). That's all for now.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Opening Night and Prognostications
I hope everyone enjoyed the Opening Night game tonight. I know a lot of people who aren't fans of the media favoritism that the Red Sox and Yankees get kind of hate the rivalry, but in my opinion tonight's game was pretty representative of every Red Sox-Yankees game. They almost always seem to be back-and-forth games, and you can never really tell who is going to win, and I think that kind of tension is really what makes a slow-paced game like baseball exciting. It was also great to see the new guys on both sides contribute in their first game with their new team. I think a back-and-forth game like tonight's game is a perfect Opening Day game, aside from the fact that you had to listen to Joe Morgan talk for 4 hours. But that's a whole other blog topic.
On another note, I figured I'd go out on a limb and make my predictions for who would win each division and each Wild Card with some short explanations. Remember these are just predictions, and essentially who I think is the most likely to win their respective division/wild card, the way baseball is, this kind of thing is very difficult to predict with any kind of accuracy. Almost any team has a chance of making the post season (obviously with a few exceptions), so don't get mad if I leave your team out.
American League:
AL East: New York Yankees
I think the resources they have, as well as the team they already have in place, especially their line-up, will once again carry them to the post season. Adding Javier Vazquez, if he can perform like he did in the NL, may actually have strengthened their already formidable rotation.
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
Losing Joe Nathan has caused them to not be as much of a favorite as they were, but they have an extremely underrated line-up. a 3-4-5 of Mauer, Morneau, Kubel is just as devastating as what the Yankees have to offer in my opinion, and I didn't even mention Michael Cuddyer. Their rotation, while not overwhelming, is solid enough to excel in the AL Central, and even either Scott Baker or Francisco Liriano can step up, it could be an impressive rotation.
AL West: Texas Rangers
Shocking that I didn't pick the Seattle Mariners or the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim? I am a little too, but this division is pretty hard to predict. The Mariners have great pitching and defense, but far too many question marks in their line-up. They probably won't hit more than 125 home runs this year, which is amazingly low. Cliff Lee's injury also worries me. The Angels have the opposite problem, with really shallow pitching and a solid line-up. The Rangers have a devastating line-up, without even accounting for a likely improvement this year from Josh Hamilton and new addition Vladimir Guerrero, and they have solid enough pitching to win this division. In other words, they are the most well-rounded team in the division.
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox
I might be a little biased here, but I think the Red Sox will once again win the AL Wild Card. They have a good line-up that probably won't score as much as the line-up last year did, but they won't have as much of a slip in Runs Scored as some people would suggest. They will still be in the top 5 in Runs Scored come season's end. They also, in my opinion, have the best rotation in baseball as long as everyone can pitch up to their level and stay healthy.
Honorable Mention: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays could very well surprise everyone and win either the AL East or the Wild Card. I am pretty comfortable saying that their line-up will score more runs than everyone in the AL that isn't the Yankees, and if their pitching can avoid underachieving like it did last year, they are very much in the race.
National League:
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
I'm kind of taking the easy way out, but that's what this is supposed to be about, I'm picking the teams that have the highest chance of winning their division from my point of view. The Phillies have the best line-up in the National League, and if the Yankees removed their DH and put a pitcher in his spot, it would be an extremely close contest. The Phillies are starting the season with half of their rotation on the DL, but they will be back quickly enough that I don't think it's a huge deal. If they all come back fairly healthy, they'll be fine. The addition of Roy Halladay is impressive, and their pitching after him isn't AMAZING, but their line-up is so good that it doesn't matter.
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols, Holliday. Done.
NL West: Colorado Rockies
I'm officially on the Rockies bandwagon. I think they have a line-up that could quite possibly finish second in Runs Scored to the Phillies, or even surpass them if they have a ridiculous enough year. Their 8th hitter, Clint Barmes, hit over 20 Home Runs last year, which is ridiculous. I think their pitching is underrated and that Ubaldo Jimenez is a potential Cy Young candidate int he NL.
NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves
I had the Atlanta Braves slated to win the Wild Card before they even decided to start Jason Heyward this year, who looks like he could be an amazing player. I'm also a little skeptical that he will contribute amazingly right away, but if he does they are even more of a lock for the playoffs. They have a better line-up this year than last year, and they have just as deep of pitching as they did last year with Hudson stepping in to replace Vazquez.
Anyway, that's all I have for now. Hope everyone enjoys the first week of baseball!
On another note, I figured I'd go out on a limb and make my predictions for who would win each division and each Wild Card with some short explanations. Remember these are just predictions, and essentially who I think is the most likely to win their respective division/wild card, the way baseball is, this kind of thing is very difficult to predict with any kind of accuracy. Almost any team has a chance of making the post season (obviously with a few exceptions), so don't get mad if I leave your team out.
American League:
AL East: New York Yankees
I think the resources they have, as well as the team they already have in place, especially their line-up, will once again carry them to the post season. Adding Javier Vazquez, if he can perform like he did in the NL, may actually have strengthened their already formidable rotation.
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
Losing Joe Nathan has caused them to not be as much of a favorite as they were, but they have an extremely underrated line-up. a 3-4-5 of Mauer, Morneau, Kubel is just as devastating as what the Yankees have to offer in my opinion, and I didn't even mention Michael Cuddyer. Their rotation, while not overwhelming, is solid enough to excel in the AL Central, and even either Scott Baker or Francisco Liriano can step up, it could be an impressive rotation.
AL West: Texas Rangers
Shocking that I didn't pick the Seattle Mariners or the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim? I am a little too, but this division is pretty hard to predict. The Mariners have great pitching and defense, but far too many question marks in their line-up. They probably won't hit more than 125 home runs this year, which is amazingly low. Cliff Lee's injury also worries me. The Angels have the opposite problem, with really shallow pitching and a solid line-up. The Rangers have a devastating line-up, without even accounting for a likely improvement this year from Josh Hamilton and new addition Vladimir Guerrero, and they have solid enough pitching to win this division. In other words, they are the most well-rounded team in the division.
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox
I might be a little biased here, but I think the Red Sox will once again win the AL Wild Card. They have a good line-up that probably won't score as much as the line-up last year did, but they won't have as much of a slip in Runs Scored as some people would suggest. They will still be in the top 5 in Runs Scored come season's end. They also, in my opinion, have the best rotation in baseball as long as everyone can pitch up to their level and stay healthy.
Honorable Mention: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays could very well surprise everyone and win either the AL East or the Wild Card. I am pretty comfortable saying that their line-up will score more runs than everyone in the AL that isn't the Yankees, and if their pitching can avoid underachieving like it did last year, they are very much in the race.
National League:
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
I'm kind of taking the easy way out, but that's what this is supposed to be about, I'm picking the teams that have the highest chance of winning their division from my point of view. The Phillies have the best line-up in the National League, and if the Yankees removed their DH and put a pitcher in his spot, it would be an extremely close contest. The Phillies are starting the season with half of their rotation on the DL, but they will be back quickly enough that I don't think it's a huge deal. If they all come back fairly healthy, they'll be fine. The addition of Roy Halladay is impressive, and their pitching after him isn't AMAZING, but their line-up is so good that it doesn't matter.
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols, Holliday. Done.
NL West: Colorado Rockies
I'm officially on the Rockies bandwagon. I think they have a line-up that could quite possibly finish second in Runs Scored to the Phillies, or even surpass them if they have a ridiculous enough year. Their 8th hitter, Clint Barmes, hit over 20 Home Runs last year, which is ridiculous. I think their pitching is underrated and that Ubaldo Jimenez is a potential Cy Young candidate int he NL.
NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves
I had the Atlanta Braves slated to win the Wild Card before they even decided to start Jason Heyward this year, who looks like he could be an amazing player. I'm also a little skeptical that he will contribute amazingly right away, but if he does they are even more of a lock for the playoffs. They have a better line-up this year than last year, and they have just as deep of pitching as they did last year with Hudson stepping in to replace Vazquez.
Anyway, that's all I have for now. Hope everyone enjoys the first week of baseball!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)