Showing posts with label New York Yankees. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New York Yankees. Show all posts

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Minor League Equivalency 2

Last year, I made a post where I used the Minor League Equivalency calcutor to calculate the stats of various rookies who were projected to start last year. Looking at last year's post, you can probably notice that it is certainly not a perfect calculator -- but it is not as if it was completely wrong, especially in the cases of Jason Heyward and Austin Jackson. Also, it doesn't help that I completely overlooked Buster Posey, but such things happen.

Anyway, the point is I thought I would do the same this season, and see what the calculator says certain up and coming rookies will do this season. To remind you, the calculator uses stats from a given level of the minor leagues and projects it out to the Major League level, based on some advanced algorithm. It should be noted that the calculator only works for position players, so I can't gauge potential rookies of the year like Jeremy Hellickson and Aroldis Chapman.

Just like last year, I am going to start with an Atlanta Braves rookie. This time, though, it's going to be Freddie Freeman who is currently slated to start at 1B for the Braves.
Freeman, who had an excellent season last year at AAA Gwinnett, projects out to a .270/.319/.428 line with 14 homers, 29 doubles, and 67 RBIs. His low OBP is mostly a product of his K/BB rate -- freeman strikes out almost twice as often as he walks, even in the minors. The Calculator projects it to get even worse in the majors, but if Freeman can improve on that, he will certainly be in line for a solid rookie season especially for an age 21 season.

Next up is the Phillies' Outfielder Domonic Brown. His name is one of the hotter rookie names heard this offseason. But does he deserve the praise he is getting? It should be noted that it seems likely given a crowded Phillies outfield, that he starts in a platoon role or in Triple A. However, given his reputation as an excellent 5-tool top prospect, I would be shocked to see him work his way into an every day role this season.
Here is how the calculator feels he would do in a full season: .264/.325/.502, 22 homers, 38 Doubles, 20 SB, 66 RBIs. The Calculator seems to feel that Brown has an excellent chance to mash a huge number of extra base hits next season if he plays full time, while also having him just barely obtaining a 20-20 season his rookie year, which would probably make him a lock for the Rookie of the Year if he puts up these numbers. Like Freeman, Brown is plagued by a horrible walk to strikeout rate, resulting in his low average and OBP in the majors. Unlike Freeman, despite those problems, the Calculator indicates that Brown's ability to slug (a .502 SLG for a rookie is huge), likely will make him a heavily contributing player without a high OBP.

Next is much talked about successor to Jorge Posada, Yankees catcher Jesus Montero. It seems likely that he ends up sharing some time with Russel Martin this year, but given his impressive performance in the minors last year, he is fully expected to become the primary catcher for the Yankees by next year if not sooner. Here is the calculator's full-season projection for Montero, based on his impressive season in the minors last year: .250/.304/.429 with 17 homers, 29 doubles, and 59 RBIs. Like the two young hitters discussed above, Montero has a major problem with the strike out that leads to a hamstrung average and OBP. Despite this, for a 21-year-old catcher, even if Montero only does what this projection believes he will do, those are pretty solid numbers. Numbers that the Yankees can only assume will get better.

For this season, those three seem to me to be the most likely position playing rookies to get a fair number of at bats next season. All three of them are projected to have at the very least, a league-average season for a rookie. Domonic Brown, if he is able to get the at-bats and live up to his five-tool hype, certainly looks to be the most dominant of these three players for the 2011 season, and quite possibly in the future.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Andy Pettitte: Hall of Famer?

As most of you have probably heard by now, Andy Pettitte has officially declared his retirement. This is going to cause a lot of problems for the Yankees rotation this year, but that is not really the topic of this post. As is frequently the case when a player with a lengthy and effective career retires, the debates have begun as to whether Andy Pettite should be in the Hall of Fame in 5 years when he is eligible. I am going to join that debate.

To start off, I am simply going to state that I do not believe Andy Pettitte belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Those who believe he should be in the Hall of Fame cite his impressive post-season statistics as the primary reason. If you didn’t know, Pettitte holds the record for the most wins in the post-season. This is no doubt impressive, but also something that should probably be taken with a grain of salt. Pettitte plays in an era where the postseason is set up in such a way that there are many chances for a pitcher on a very good team to get postseason wins. Great pitchers from the past have absolutely no chance to rank anywhere near the top of such a list, meaning that saying “Pettitte has the most postseason wins of all time” is kind of a hollow statement in that the current post-season format, as compared to the past, makes it much easier for him to accrue wins.

If you look at the list of the most postseason wins, everyone on the list is a modern pitcher. Now, it’s true that Pettitte has more wins than guys from his era who are known for their postseason ability like John Smoltz and Curt Schilling, but a comparison of their other stats shows that Pettitte was not the best postseason starter of all time, and simply benefitted from better run support and more appearances in the postseason. Here are those three pitcher’s postseason stats:

Pettitte: 19-10, 3.83 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 1.304 WHIP.

Smoltz: 15-4, 2.67 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 1.144 WHIP.

Schilling: 11-2, 2.23 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.125 WHIP

It should be fairly clear from those statistics that despite having fewer wins, Smoltz and Schilling are in fact in a higher class than Pettitte as far as their post-season performances go. They won a lot of games in a lot fewer appearances, and put up much more dominant numbers than Pettitte ever did. I chose Smoltz and Schilling because they are both guys who are often cited as future Hall of Famers in part because of their post-season stats, so I thought it necessary to show what more legitimate Hall of Fame candidates had done in the postseason.

The other argument people tend to make is simply stating that Pettitte’s regular season statistics are good enough, combined with his postseason success, to get him into the Hall of Fame. Once again, I disagree.

Here is Pettitte’s career line: 240-138, 3.88 ERA, 1.357 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 6.6 K/9.

Here is Pedro Martinez’s career line: 219-100, 2.93 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 10.0 K/9.

Once again, for comparison’s sake, I am using someone who is typically considered a future Hall of Famer to compare Pettitte’s numbers too, just to indicate how far off the pace he is in everything but Wins. While Pettitte’s career winning percentage is fairly impressive – No one who is 102 games over the .500 mark for Wins has ever NOT made it in into the hall of fame. The rest of Pettitte’s numbers are not anywhere near that elite. His ERA, WHIP, and Hits and Strikeouts per nine innings are all fairly solid, and fairly typical for a Number 3 starter. How many pitchers in the Hall of Fame have given up more than one hit per inning in their career? The answer is one, and he got in 65 years ago. How many Number 3 starters make the Hall of Fame? Only the ones who have the longevity to win 300 games, which Pettitte has not done. Once again, Pettitte’s win total is inflated by the great offenses he pitched for.

There may have been a time where Win Percentage MIGHT have been enough to get Pettitte into the Hall of Fame, but if the last two American League Cy Young Award winners, who were not even in the top 10 in Wins in their respective years (Zach Greinke, 16-8 in 2009 and Felix Hernandez, 13-12 in 2010) indicate anything, it is that voters are starting to look at more than just Wins.

Now, I feel it necessary to post a disclaimer in saying that I think Andy Pettitte is certainly a very good pitcher. If I did not think so, I would not have begun this article by stating that the Yankees rotation is going to miss him. However, being in the Hall of Fame means being MORE than very good. It means being among the best of your era. Something that Andy Pettitte certainly is not. It should be noted that I did not even bring up pitchers like Randy Johnson and other pitchers who seem to be a lock for first ballot on the Hall of Fame. Pettitte will forever be remembered as a good player with multiple World Series wins and rings, especially because he plays for the biggest team in the sport, but this does not make him a Hall of Famer.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

How will the ALCS go?

Hey everyone,
Now that we know who the last 4 teams are this year, I thought I'd kind of preview the two series and talk about what I think are going to be important issues.

Today I'm going to talk about the ALCS.

Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
A lot of analysts seem to be thinking that the Rangers are nothing more than a speed-bump for the Yankees to get back to the World Series. I would argue that the Rangers deserve more respect than that. Yes, Cliff Lee will not be starting until game three, and yes he will only be able to start two games in the series, and that is assuming it goes to 7 games. But people seem to be overlooking C.J. Wilson, who put up stellar numbers this year (3.35 ERA, 7.5 K/9) that are in fact comparable to Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia (3.18 ERA, 7.5 K/9).

In other words, the Yankees will be facing a tough left-hander in games one, three, four, and six. The Yankees fair much worse against left handers (31-27 in the regular season) than they do against Right Handers (64-40).

It is also important to bring up the fact that the Rangers have home field advantage in this series, as the Yankees are the Wild Card entrant. Once again, the numbers do not favor the Yankees. The Yankees barely managed to stay above .500 on the Road, (43-38), while the Rangers are a dangerous team at home (51-30).

Further developing the argument that this series will be more evenly matched that most people seem to think is the fact that the Yankees and Rangers actually split their season series this year, going 4-4 against eachother.

Another thing that makes me like the Rangers in this series is the fact that the Rangers are pretty much loaded when it comes to Right-handed bats. This is important because Sabathia and Pettitte will likely start the most games for the Yankees, both of which are left handed. Hamilton, Cruz, and Kinsler all destroy left-handed pitching. And that's without even talking about Michael Young, who is no slouch.

Basically, what I am trying to argue is that the Rangers should put up a very good fight in the ALCS, and could even win it, despite what most people seem to have concluded. To conclude this thing, I will be talking about the biggest questions for each of these teams.

For the Rangers:
Can their bullpen get it together? - In the ALDS the Rangers bullpen was from the effective bullpen it was during the regular season. Even Neftali Feliz, a very good Rookie of the Year candidate, struggled. It does not seem impossible for the bullpen to get back to being effective in the ALCS, but many of the people in the Rangers bullpen do not have much postseason experience, and the bright lights at Yankee Stadium may cause them problem.

Can Ian Kinsler stay hot? - Ian Kinsler had an injury-riddled regular season, but was productive when he could play. He seems to have really turned it on for the post season, having hit .344 while bashing 3 Home Runs in five games. If he can stay hot, the Rangers will be in a very good place.

Will Cliff Lee pitch on short rest in an emergency situation? - So far it has been fairly clear that neither Lee nor Ron Washington are interested in having Lee pitch on short rest, something he has never done in his career. If a situation arises in this series where Lee is needed to get the Rangers back on the winning track, will they use him? My guess is the answer is probably no, which is something that does not bode well for the Rangers.

For the Yankees
Will the long layoff have done the Yankees harm? - The Yankees once against brutally swept the Twins, leading to a long lay-off for them as the Rays/Rangers series went to five games. There are examples of long layoffs being good for teams, and examples of them being completely horrible (2007 Rockies, for instance), which group will these Yankees fall into? Many commentators have stated that the veteran nature of the Yankees will make it hard for them to lose their focus, and this could very well be true.

Will A.J. Burnett pitch game 4? - At this point, Joe Girardi intends to use C.C. Sabathia, Andy Pettite, Phil Hughes, and A.J. Burnett in that order. A.J. Burnett had a year he would likely like to forget, but the Yankees really have no other option for a fourth starter, as their depth in this department is far from desirable. The question becomes, if the Yankees are down 2-1 before game four, will Burnett still be pitching it? My gut feeling is that the answer to this is "no", as C.C. Sabathia has proven throughout his career that he can pitch well on short rest. C.C. Sabathia with 3-days rest versus a well-rested, but gassed, A.J. Burnett seems like an easy choice to me. Especially if it means going down 3-1 or evening up the series. The answer to this question could very much end up determining how well the Yankees do in this series.

That's all I have for now, I will try to post a similar blog about the NLCS tomorrow.
Enjoy some post-season baseball!

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Some notes from today's games

Hey everyone,
I thought I'd post a few notes about today's games.

1. The first Yankees-Red Sox series of the season ended today, and while the Red Sox (my team) lost today, I feel like this three game series was one of the better ones that I've seen between the two clubs in a while, with every game being decided by two runs scored late in the game. Additionally, Pettitte and Lackey responded to yesterday's post where I talked about how poorly the starters had pitched in the first two games in the series by both putting up great starts, so that was enjoyable to watch.

2. In today's Dodgers @ Pirates game Garrett Jones homered for his third time this season, meaning he is on track for a whopping 243 Home Runs this season. Obviously, that's not going to happen, but if he can continue to produce for the Pirates and solidify the middle of that order, the Pirates might be a better team than people are giving them credit for.

3. In today's Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox game the White Sox managed to keep a game within two runs where they were out-hit 10 to 2, managing to score three runs on their two hits. Something always intrigues me about a team having more runs than hits in a game. More interestingly, Paul Konerko had all three RBIs in the game, one coming on a Sac Fly and the other two on a 2-Run home run. On both of these scoring plays, the men on base in front of Konerko got there via the walk.

4. In today's Florida Marlins @ New York Mets game the Marlins won despite a sloppy game from their pitchers. Ricky Nolasco was charged with a ball when he went to his mouth while standing on the rubber of the pitching mound beacuse he misunderstood the rules change that went into effect this year where a pitcher can no go to their mouth on the mound, but only if they are not standing on the rubber, and only if they wipe their hand off before gripping the ball. Nolasco still put up a good game, but lost what should have been his first win of the season because of (among other things) a bases-loaded balk from Leo Nunez. Ouch.

That's it for now. Hope everyone enjoyed today's games!

Observations from today's games

Hey everyone, hope you enjoyed some Tuesday baseball! Not every team was in action today, but enough teams were in action today for some interesting observations. While I only actively follow about one game a day while it's happening (typically the Red Sox game), I check the box scores for every game after they all go final. Tell me I have a problem if you want to (I might), but I almost always find a handful of things that interest me enough to make checking all of those box scores pay off. Baseball is just such a quirky game that almost every day something interesting is happening. Here are the two things that interested me the most that I noticed today.

1. In today's Orioles @ Rays game, two guys who worked in a shared closing role for the Atlanta Braves last year were the pitchers of record for opposing teams, those two guys being Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano.

It would not surprise me if this is the first time in history that two guys who got 10+ saves for the same team the year before were both the pitcher's of record on opposing teams the next season, simply because two guys getting that many saves on the same team is rare, and the chance of both closers being used by opposing teams in a single game is also rare. It might happen more than once too, since these two are in the same division..assuming they can hold on to their positions in bullpen hierarchy.

2. In today's Yankees @ Red Sox game both starting pitchers struggled. This means that the top two pitchers for both of these extremely well-funded organizations, all of whom are getting paid incredibly well, have put up some horrible numbers to begin their seasons, numbers that look even worse when you put all four of them together. As ESPNBoston's Gordon Edes put it "Starting pitching in first two games of series: 20 IP, 26 H, 17 ER, 7.65 ERA, $353.6". Obviously what he means by "353.6" is the millions of dollars that all four of these men's (CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and A.J. Burnett) total contracts are worth. Hopefully John Lackey and Andy Pettitte can put up some good numbers tomorrow, or things will be even more laughable. The chances of all four starters putting up such horrible numbers in the first two games of the season, especially when three of the guys often have "ace" attatched to their name, has to be pretty low.

That's it for now.