I realize of all of the trades that have gone on recent days (Jorge Cantu, Roy Oswalt, Miguel Tejada, Dan Haren, etc.,) the Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos trade is probably one of the least exciting. However, most of the other trades (except for maybe the Dan Haren trade) made sense to me for both teams, and both teams got a pretty fair deal out of it.
I don't think that is the case with this trade. I think that the Nationals clearly got the better deal, which in some ways is nice to see I guess.
Ramos, who was a stud prospect at the end of last year, at the premium position of Catcher, has had an off year. His value has certainly declined, but I don't think that it has declined to the point that a 1-for-1 trade for Matt Capps makes any kind of sense, especially because Matt Capps is not exactly amazing. Last year, he was non-tendered by the Pirates after putting up a 5.80 ERA as their closer. Certainly his ERA was a product of bad luck, since his 7.6 K/9 and low walk rates were pretty good. However, the ERA he has put up this year of 2.74, is on the opposite end of that spectrum and is pretty much the product of good luck. His strike out rate has actually gone DOWN since last year, although his Walk rate has improved.
Basically, my point is that for most teams, Matt Capps is a serviceable 7th or 8th inning guy, and certainly not a closer. He was a closer for the Pirates and the Nationals because the Pirates had no other options, and the Nationals aren't quite ready to thrust Drew Storen or Tyler Clippard into the role -- although I guess they are going to now. The Twins plan to insert Capps into the closer role, although obviously he will only have it for the rest of this year (pending results I'm sure) as Joe Nathan returns next year.
I understand that the Twins needed bullpen help with the recent struggles of John Rauch as closer, but bullpen help usually comes a lot cheaper than someone with as high of a ceiling as Wilson Ramos. Yes, the Twins will have control of Capps for a number of years before he reaches free agency. And yes, Joe Mauer would have been blocking Wilson Ramos for the rest of time, but the Twins could have included Ramos in a much better deal (in fact he was part of their attempted package for Cliff Lee) than for Capps.
Some people, such as Fangraphs' Dave Cameron think that Ramos' struggles this year (.241/.280/.345 at AAA) decrease his value enough for the trade to be fair for both sides. What Dave Cameron, who I usually agree with, fails to mention is the fact that Wilson Ramos is a 22-year-old catcher, who destroyed AA pitching last year and will probably take a little bit of time to adjust to AAA. His numbers against AAA pitching have not been great, but it's not like he's below the Mendoza line or anything. He has plenty of time, Catchers are one of the slowest position players to make it all the way to the majors, and he is still playing above his age level for a Catcher. It's also kind of important to note that Ramos already has a handful of games in the Major Leagues from earlier this season when Mauer had an injury.
Tomorrow is deadline day, and I will probably make a post about my favorite trades of the last few weeks and how I think they will effect contenders.
Have a good weekend everyone!
Showing posts with label Trade Talk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trade Talk. Show all posts
Friday, July 30, 2010
Saturday, July 24, 2010
The Alberto Callaspo Trade
The Trade Deadline is quickly approaching, and some teams have already started making deals.
Earlier this week Alberto Callaspo was traded to the Angels. Here is a brief run-down of the trade.
Angels get:
Alberto Callapso (2B, 3B)
Royals get:
Sean O'Sullivan (RHP)
Will Smith (LHP)
The Angels were desperately in need of an upgrade at third with the way Brandon Wood has played so far this season, and Alberto Callaspo certainly represents that. Callapso is not the most patient of hitters, having only drawn 19 walks thus far this season in 89 games. He also does not strike out much either though, striking out only 29 times over that same span. His current line is .275/.308/.410, and if he stays on that same space he will certainly represent an improvement over the .168/.185/.225 line that Brandon Wood has been putting up.
The other bonus is that the Angels will hold on to Callapso for a number of years. I could not find how much longer the 27-year-old Callaspo has before he reaches free agency for the first time, but I did find out that he won't be a free agent this off-season, or next year, representing a pretty good deal for the Angels in that he is (at minimum) locked up through the 2012 season. It will probably be hard for the Angels to make the post-season this year, although Callaspo probably slightly improves their chances. This move seems to have more impact on the next couple of seasons, in that the Angels had a big question mark at third base.
The Royals also seem to have come out pretty alright in this deal. O'Sullivan and Smith are both fairly young, and have decent upsides, although both have struggled to find any consistency this year. O'Sullivan is only 22 and has already spent some time in the major leagues, albeit with not the best results. Smith is a little further from getting a call-up, more than likely, but he projects as someone who will make it to the major leagues some day.
Overall, I think I'd put the Angels as the winners of this trade because they filled a major need they had and did not have to give up any of their biggest prospects. They did give up a couple of guys who will probably be serviceable major leaguers some day, but they received (at least) two and a half years from a proven major league player at their weakest position, who will probably hit around .280 every year with lots of doubles.
In coming years if Smith and O'Sullivan prove to have the ability to be more than solid major league pitchers, then maybe the Royals finally did some good scouting before a trade.
Earlier this week Alberto Callaspo was traded to the Angels. Here is a brief run-down of the trade.
Angels get:
Alberto Callapso (2B, 3B)
Royals get:
Sean O'Sullivan (RHP)
Will Smith (LHP)
The Angels were desperately in need of an upgrade at third with the way Brandon Wood has played so far this season, and Alberto Callaspo certainly represents that. Callapso is not the most patient of hitters, having only drawn 19 walks thus far this season in 89 games. He also does not strike out much either though, striking out only 29 times over that same span. His current line is .275/.308/.410, and if he stays on that same space he will certainly represent an improvement over the .168/.185/.225 line that Brandon Wood has been putting up.
The other bonus is that the Angels will hold on to Callapso for a number of years. I could not find how much longer the 27-year-old Callaspo has before he reaches free agency for the first time, but I did find out that he won't be a free agent this off-season, or next year, representing a pretty good deal for the Angels in that he is (at minimum) locked up through the 2012 season. It will probably be hard for the Angels to make the post-season this year, although Callaspo probably slightly improves their chances. This move seems to have more impact on the next couple of seasons, in that the Angels had a big question mark at third base.
The Royals also seem to have come out pretty alright in this deal. O'Sullivan and Smith are both fairly young, and have decent upsides, although both have struggled to find any consistency this year. O'Sullivan is only 22 and has already spent some time in the major leagues, albeit with not the best results. Smith is a little further from getting a call-up, more than likely, but he projects as someone who will make it to the major leagues some day.
Overall, I think I'd put the Angels as the winners of this trade because they filled a major need they had and did not have to give up any of their biggest prospects. They did give up a couple of guys who will probably be serviceable major leaguers some day, but they received (at least) two and a half years from a proven major league player at their weakest position, who will probably hit around .280 every year with lots of doubles.
In coming years if Smith and O'Sullivan prove to have the ability to be more than solid major league pitchers, then maybe the Royals finally did some good scouting before a trade.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Trade Talk: Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez
So, I still don't have my computer, but should have it very soon at which I will resume posting tri-weekly. At this point I'm really just posting when I have free time and access to a computer.
Luckily I have both of those things right now, and an interesting trade happened today. Here is the basic run-down of the trade if you don't want to click on that link:
Braves Get:
Alex Gonzalez (SS)
Tim Collins (Double A LHRP)
Tyler Pastornicky (Single A SS/2B)
Blue Jays Get:
Yunel Escobar (SS)
Jo-Jo Reyes (RHRP)
Personally, I see this trade as a win for the Braves in many ways. The Braves off-loaded two players who they don't seem particularly keen on. Apparently the braves were not exactly thrilled with Escobar, and that extends to some of the players. Many of them viewed him as lackdaisical, and as an anonymous player said in the article I linked at the beginning of this post, "His behavior is easier to put up with when he's hitting .300". Escobar is batting below .240 right now. While it's fairly unlikely someone with Escobar's track record and talent will continue to play so poorly, the Braves clearly felt that his attitude was no longer tolerable.
Reyes on the other hand is a 25-year-old who doesn't seem like he will ever reach the vision that the Braves had for him, as being at the very least a set up reliever.
The Braves received Alex Gonzalez who is having a career year, although apparently aided by the park dimensions in Toronto, and has always been a very good defensive short stop with some decent pop. He's also got a good reputation in every club house he's ever been in, something that Escobar can't say he has.
The Braves also received two fairly solid prospects in Tim Collins and Pastornicky. Collins and Pastornicky are both in their early 20s (21 and 20 respectively), and Collins is already playing at Double A, and putting up fairly good numbers as a relief pitcher (2.51 ERA, 15.3 K/9). Something strange about Collins is the fact that he is only 5 ft 7 and 160 pounds but apparently sports a mid-90s fastball.
Pastornicky is progressing a little more slowly tgat Collins, but Collins has progressed exceptionally fast thanks to his K/9.
Pastornicky is in High-A Ball at this point, and is putting up a .258/.348/.376 line. That line is not super impressive or anything, but if he turns it on in the second half of the season it is likely that he ends up in AA by season's end. It's also important to note that he has 6 Home Runs in around 300 At-Bats, which may not sound like many, but many minor league prospects have zero power at the age of 20.
So, overall, I think the Braves come out on top in this trade. There is some chance that the trade and the comments about him light a fire under Escobar causing him to be more motivated, and maybe becomes a better player. The one thing that the Blue Jays DO get is a Shortstop who SHOULD hit well in the future, and will not be a free agent for three years.
Luckily I have both of those things right now, and an interesting trade happened today. Here is the basic run-down of the trade if you don't want to click on that link:
Braves Get:
Alex Gonzalez (SS)
Tim Collins (Double A LHRP)
Tyler Pastornicky (Single A SS/2B)
Blue Jays Get:
Yunel Escobar (SS)
Jo-Jo Reyes (RHRP)
Personally, I see this trade as a win for the Braves in many ways. The Braves off-loaded two players who they don't seem particularly keen on. Apparently the braves were not exactly thrilled with Escobar, and that extends to some of the players. Many of them viewed him as lackdaisical, and as an anonymous player said in the article I linked at the beginning of this post, "His behavior is easier to put up with when he's hitting .300". Escobar is batting below .240 right now. While it's fairly unlikely someone with Escobar's track record and talent will continue to play so poorly, the Braves clearly felt that his attitude was no longer tolerable.
Reyes on the other hand is a 25-year-old who doesn't seem like he will ever reach the vision that the Braves had for him, as being at the very least a set up reliever.
The Braves received Alex Gonzalez who is having a career year, although apparently aided by the park dimensions in Toronto, and has always been a very good defensive short stop with some decent pop. He's also got a good reputation in every club house he's ever been in, something that Escobar can't say he has.
The Braves also received two fairly solid prospects in Tim Collins and Pastornicky. Collins and Pastornicky are both in their early 20s (21 and 20 respectively), and Collins is already playing at Double A, and putting up fairly good numbers as a relief pitcher (2.51 ERA, 15.3 K/9). Something strange about Collins is the fact that he is only 5 ft 7 and 160 pounds but apparently sports a mid-90s fastball.
Pastornicky is progressing a little more slowly tgat Collins, but Collins has progressed exceptionally fast thanks to his K/9.
Pastornicky is in High-A Ball at this point, and is putting up a .258/.348/.376 line. That line is not super impressive or anything, but if he turns it on in the second half of the season it is likely that he ends up in AA by season's end. It's also important to note that he has 6 Home Runs in around 300 At-Bats, which may not sound like many, but many minor league prospects have zero power at the age of 20.
So, overall, I think the Braves come out on top in this trade. There is some chance that the trade and the comments about him light a fire under Escobar causing him to be more motivated, and maybe becomes a better player. The one thing that the Blue Jays DO get is a Shortstop who SHOULD hit well in the future, and will not be a free agent for three years.
Monday, May 24, 2010
Trade Talk: Who will want Roy Oswalt?
Most of you probably know by now that Roy Oswalt has requested to be traded. He seems to be fairly frustrated with the management of the Astros, in that he asked them what their plans were for the future, and Oswalt claims that they didn't really have an answer that he liked.
When you look at Oswalt's numbers for the year, you can understand his frustration. Oswalt has only managed a 2-6 record this year in 9 starts. If you just look at that, Oswalt appears to not be a very good pitcher, but when you look at his other sparkling numbers - like his 2.66 ERA and a 8.9 K/9, it becomes clear that he has gotten next to no run support from an underperforming Houston Astros line-up. It's understandable that he is frustrated by that.
The real question though, is who the potential trade candidates are for Oswalt. Oswalt has stated that he wants to be traded to a contender, and will only waive his no-trade clause if the team that the Astros are in talks with is a team he views as a contender. So far, the only team to officially announce interest in Oswalt is the Washington Nationals, who are sitting one game above .500 and are 4 games back in a closesly contested NL East. It's hard to see Oswalt considering them a contender, especially because many people (including myself) have a hard time seeing the Nationals even finishing the season above .500, Strasburg or not.
As the trade deadline gets closer, it's likely other teams will express interest in Oswalt, because he is pitching so well this season and is a genuine ace in many rotation. However, there is one other obstacle to Oswalt being traded, and that is the amount of guaranteed money left on the contract of a 32-year-old who got injured in 2008 and 2009. Whoever trades for Oswalt will be forced to pay him a prorated amount of the $15 million he is owed this season (depending on when they trade for him), and are also on the hook for $16 million in 2011. They will also be forced to either pick up a $16 million option for 2012 or pay Oswalt a $2 million dollar buy-out. That means whoever trades for Oswalt (assuming the Astros don't eat a portion of the contract), will have to have a lot of payroll flexibility next year to accomodate the $15 million Oswalt will have to be paid. This means that only some very large market teams, or teams who seem to be wanting to expand payroll (like the Nationals) seem like tradely candidates. Obviously, teams will also need to have a pitching need. The fact that there needs to be payroll flexibility seems to rule out teams like the Phillies, who clearly need pitching, but seem to be stretched to their payroll limit.
I could see a team like the Red Sox pursuing Oswalt if the injury to Josh Beckett proves to be more major than is currently thought. The Red Sox certainly have some more payroll flexibility, and will have plenty of money coming off of the books next year between the impending free agencies of Mike Lowell and David Ortiz. However, I can only see this happening in the event that the Red Sox continue to climb up the AL East ladder, and only if Beckett is out for the rest of the season. The rotation the Red Sox would put up for next year would also be completely devastating, assuming everyone pitches to their ability. It would be something like Lester-Beckett-Oswalt-Lackey-Buccholz, and that's not even accounting for a resurgent Dice-K.
It should also be noted that the return that the Astros receive will probably be effected by how much money the Astros decide to take on of what remains on Oswalt's contract. If they trade him as is and expect the team to pick up that colossal amount of money, they'll probably only get one top-shelf prospect.
Who do you think Oswalt will get traded to?
When you look at Oswalt's numbers for the year, you can understand his frustration. Oswalt has only managed a 2-6 record this year in 9 starts. If you just look at that, Oswalt appears to not be a very good pitcher, but when you look at his other sparkling numbers - like his 2.66 ERA and a 8.9 K/9, it becomes clear that he has gotten next to no run support from an underperforming Houston Astros line-up. It's understandable that he is frustrated by that.
The real question though, is who the potential trade candidates are for Oswalt. Oswalt has stated that he wants to be traded to a contender, and will only waive his no-trade clause if the team that the Astros are in talks with is a team he views as a contender. So far, the only team to officially announce interest in Oswalt is the Washington Nationals, who are sitting one game above .500 and are 4 games back in a closesly contested NL East. It's hard to see Oswalt considering them a contender, especially because many people (including myself) have a hard time seeing the Nationals even finishing the season above .500, Strasburg or not.
As the trade deadline gets closer, it's likely other teams will express interest in Oswalt, because he is pitching so well this season and is a genuine ace in many rotation. However, there is one other obstacle to Oswalt being traded, and that is the amount of guaranteed money left on the contract of a 32-year-old who got injured in 2008 and 2009. Whoever trades for Oswalt will be forced to pay him a prorated amount of the $15 million he is owed this season (depending on when they trade for him), and are also on the hook for $16 million in 2011. They will also be forced to either pick up a $16 million option for 2012 or pay Oswalt a $2 million dollar buy-out. That means whoever trades for Oswalt (assuming the Astros don't eat a portion of the contract), will have to have a lot of payroll flexibility next year to accomodate the $15 million Oswalt will have to be paid. This means that only some very large market teams, or teams who seem to be wanting to expand payroll (like the Nationals) seem like tradely candidates. Obviously, teams will also need to have a pitching need. The fact that there needs to be payroll flexibility seems to rule out teams like the Phillies, who clearly need pitching, but seem to be stretched to their payroll limit.
I could see a team like the Red Sox pursuing Oswalt if the injury to Josh Beckett proves to be more major than is currently thought. The Red Sox certainly have some more payroll flexibility, and will have plenty of money coming off of the books next year between the impending free agencies of Mike Lowell and David Ortiz. However, I can only see this happening in the event that the Red Sox continue to climb up the AL East ladder, and only if Beckett is out for the rest of the season. The rotation the Red Sox would put up for next year would also be completely devastating, assuming everyone pitches to their ability. It would be something like Lester-Beckett-Oswalt-Lackey-Buccholz, and that's not even accounting for a resurgent Dice-K.
It should also be noted that the return that the Astros receive will probably be effected by how much money the Astros decide to take on of what remains on Oswalt's contract. If they trade him as is and expect the team to pick up that colossal amount of money, they'll probably only get one top-shelf prospect.
Who do you think Oswalt will get traded to?
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