Last year, I made a post where I used the Minor League Equivalency calcutor to calculate the stats of various rookies who were projected to start last year. Looking at last year's post, you can probably notice that it is certainly not a perfect calculator -- but it is not as if it was completely wrong, especially in the cases of Jason Heyward and Austin Jackson. Also, it doesn't help that I completely overlooked Buster Posey, but such things happen.
Anyway, the point is I thought I would do the same this season, and see what the calculator says certain up and coming rookies will do this season. To remind you, the calculator uses stats from a given level of the minor leagues and projects it out to the Major League level, based on some advanced algorithm. It should be noted that the calculator only works for position players, so I can't gauge potential rookies of the year like Jeremy Hellickson and Aroldis Chapman.
Just like last year, I am going to start with an Atlanta Braves rookie. This time, though, it's going to be Freddie Freeman who is currently slated to start at 1B for the Braves.
Freeman, who had an excellent season last year at AAA Gwinnett, projects out to a .270/.319/.428 line with 14 homers, 29 doubles, and 67 RBIs. His low OBP is mostly a product of his K/BB rate -- freeman strikes out almost twice as often as he walks, even in the minors. The Calculator projects it to get even worse in the majors, but if Freeman can improve on that, he will certainly be in line for a solid rookie season especially for an age 21 season.
Next up is the Phillies' Outfielder Domonic Brown. His name is one of the hotter rookie names heard this offseason. But does he deserve the praise he is getting? It should be noted that it seems likely given a crowded Phillies outfield, that he starts in a platoon role or in Triple A. However, given his reputation as an excellent 5-tool top prospect, I would be shocked to see him work his way into an every day role this season.
Here is how the calculator feels he would do in a full season: .264/.325/.502, 22 homers, 38 Doubles, 20 SB, 66 RBIs. The Calculator seems to feel that Brown has an excellent chance to mash a huge number of extra base hits next season if he plays full time, while also having him just barely obtaining a 20-20 season his rookie year, which would probably make him a lock for the Rookie of the Year if he puts up these numbers. Like Freeman, Brown is plagued by a horrible walk to strikeout rate, resulting in his low average and OBP in the majors. Unlike Freeman, despite those problems, the Calculator indicates that Brown's ability to slug (a .502 SLG for a rookie is huge), likely will make him a heavily contributing player without a high OBP.
Next is much talked about successor to Jorge Posada, Yankees catcher Jesus Montero. It seems likely that he ends up sharing some time with Russel Martin this year, but given his impressive performance in the minors last year, he is fully expected to become the primary catcher for the Yankees by next year if not sooner. Here is the calculator's full-season projection for Montero, based on his impressive season in the minors last year: .250/.304/.429 with 17 homers, 29 doubles, and 59 RBIs. Like the two young hitters discussed above, Montero has a major problem with the strike out that leads to a hamstrung average and OBP. Despite this, for a 21-year-old catcher, even if Montero only does what this projection believes he will do, those are pretty solid numbers. Numbers that the Yankees can only assume will get better.
For this season, those three seem to me to be the most likely position playing rookies to get a fair number of at bats next season. All three of them are projected to have at the very least, a league-average season for a rookie. Domonic Brown, if he is able to get the at-bats and live up to his five-tool hype, certainly looks to be the most dominant of these three players for the 2011 season, and quite possibly in the future.
Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Trade Talk: Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez
So, I still don't have my computer, but should have it very soon at which I will resume posting tri-weekly. At this point I'm really just posting when I have free time and access to a computer.
Luckily I have both of those things right now, and an interesting trade happened today. Here is the basic run-down of the trade if you don't want to click on that link:
Braves Get:
Alex Gonzalez (SS)
Tim Collins (Double A LHRP)
Tyler Pastornicky (Single A SS/2B)
Blue Jays Get:
Yunel Escobar (SS)
Jo-Jo Reyes (RHRP)
Personally, I see this trade as a win for the Braves in many ways. The Braves off-loaded two players who they don't seem particularly keen on. Apparently the braves were not exactly thrilled with Escobar, and that extends to some of the players. Many of them viewed him as lackdaisical, and as an anonymous player said in the article I linked at the beginning of this post, "His behavior is easier to put up with when he's hitting .300". Escobar is batting below .240 right now. While it's fairly unlikely someone with Escobar's track record and talent will continue to play so poorly, the Braves clearly felt that his attitude was no longer tolerable.
Reyes on the other hand is a 25-year-old who doesn't seem like he will ever reach the vision that the Braves had for him, as being at the very least a set up reliever.
The Braves received Alex Gonzalez who is having a career year, although apparently aided by the park dimensions in Toronto, and has always been a very good defensive short stop with some decent pop. He's also got a good reputation in every club house he's ever been in, something that Escobar can't say he has.
The Braves also received two fairly solid prospects in Tim Collins and Pastornicky. Collins and Pastornicky are both in their early 20s (21 and 20 respectively), and Collins is already playing at Double A, and putting up fairly good numbers as a relief pitcher (2.51 ERA, 15.3 K/9). Something strange about Collins is the fact that he is only 5 ft 7 and 160 pounds but apparently sports a mid-90s fastball.
Pastornicky is progressing a little more slowly tgat Collins, but Collins has progressed exceptionally fast thanks to his K/9.
Pastornicky is in High-A Ball at this point, and is putting up a .258/.348/.376 line. That line is not super impressive or anything, but if he turns it on in the second half of the season it is likely that he ends up in AA by season's end. It's also important to note that he has 6 Home Runs in around 300 At-Bats, which may not sound like many, but many minor league prospects have zero power at the age of 20.
So, overall, I think the Braves come out on top in this trade. There is some chance that the trade and the comments about him light a fire under Escobar causing him to be more motivated, and maybe becomes a better player. The one thing that the Blue Jays DO get is a Shortstop who SHOULD hit well in the future, and will not be a free agent for three years.
Luckily I have both of those things right now, and an interesting trade happened today. Here is the basic run-down of the trade if you don't want to click on that link:
Braves Get:
Alex Gonzalez (SS)
Tim Collins (Double A LHRP)
Tyler Pastornicky (Single A SS/2B)
Blue Jays Get:
Yunel Escobar (SS)
Jo-Jo Reyes (RHRP)
Personally, I see this trade as a win for the Braves in many ways. The Braves off-loaded two players who they don't seem particularly keen on. Apparently the braves were not exactly thrilled with Escobar, and that extends to some of the players. Many of them viewed him as lackdaisical, and as an anonymous player said in the article I linked at the beginning of this post, "His behavior is easier to put up with when he's hitting .300". Escobar is batting below .240 right now. While it's fairly unlikely someone with Escobar's track record and talent will continue to play so poorly, the Braves clearly felt that his attitude was no longer tolerable.
Reyes on the other hand is a 25-year-old who doesn't seem like he will ever reach the vision that the Braves had for him, as being at the very least a set up reliever.
The Braves received Alex Gonzalez who is having a career year, although apparently aided by the park dimensions in Toronto, and has always been a very good defensive short stop with some decent pop. He's also got a good reputation in every club house he's ever been in, something that Escobar can't say he has.
The Braves also received two fairly solid prospects in Tim Collins and Pastornicky. Collins and Pastornicky are both in their early 20s (21 and 20 respectively), and Collins is already playing at Double A, and putting up fairly good numbers as a relief pitcher (2.51 ERA, 15.3 K/9). Something strange about Collins is the fact that he is only 5 ft 7 and 160 pounds but apparently sports a mid-90s fastball.
Pastornicky is progressing a little more slowly tgat Collins, but Collins has progressed exceptionally fast thanks to his K/9.
Pastornicky is in High-A Ball at this point, and is putting up a .258/.348/.376 line. That line is not super impressive or anything, but if he turns it on in the second half of the season it is likely that he ends up in AA by season's end. It's also important to note that he has 6 Home Runs in around 300 At-Bats, which may not sound like many, but many minor league prospects have zero power at the age of 20.
So, overall, I think the Braves come out on top in this trade. There is some chance that the trade and the comments about him light a fire under Escobar causing him to be more motivated, and maybe becomes a better player. The one thing that the Blue Jays DO get is a Shortstop who SHOULD hit well in the future, and will not be a free agent for three years.
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