Showing posts with label Boston Red Sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boston Red Sox. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Are these early season trends for real?

It is kind of amazing to me how big of a deal people seem to be making over early season struggles or success of various teams that seem to be defying the various pre-season predictions. Despite the fact that everyone should have a fairly good idea that baseball has a very long season, I have heard in person, and even seen articles online, that are either pushing the panic button (Red Sox and Brewers) or already proclaiming that the division is theirs (Baltimore Orioles).

So the question is, will this early season trends stand up?

Red Sox (0-3): Yes, the Red Sox gave up 11 Home Runs in their opening season series. Red Sox pitching has struggled in the first three games of the season, but is it a trend? Probably not. Jon Lester has a bad April almost every year, Buccholz start was really not that bad, in that he gave up only 5 hits and yes, 4 were homers, but 2 of them were fairly clearly wind blown. The more positive and important trend of that series that may be (at least more) indicative of thigns to come, is David Ortiz's two home runs. He has started horribly the last two years, and his fast start this year is a good sign -- though it certainly does not mean he will not have a prolonged slump at a different time this year. The short answer is, the opening season series for the Red Sox has been overblown as a sign that the team is overrated, and they should certainly compete.

Brewers (0-3): The Brewers issues are not as clearly temporary as the Red Sox, but it still seems likely. The Brewers are missing Corey Hart and Zack Greinke, both of wihch are fairly large losses. Assuming they don't dig too big of a hole for themselves the return of those two will certainly help. It is also pretty much a guarantee that Prince Fielder will get it going. While I dont' see the Brewers winning their division, I can certainly see them contending for it.

Orioles (4-0): The Orioles young pitching so far this season has panned out and the Orioles offense has been as good as advertised. Can the Orioles young pitching continue to produce? I think it would be great if it did, but unfortunately trends indicate that having a rotation filled with such inexperienced guys will probably not pan out, not this year. Next year, it would not be completely shocking to see the Orioles compete in 2012 or 2013 after they get some more innings under their belt. The short answer is, I do not see the Orioles continuing to compete this season, although, as I stated in an earlier post, the Orioles could certainly surprise this season.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Biggest Winners of the Offseason

Since nothing of great magnitude is going on in the baseball world, except for the ongoing Michael Young situation and the Albert Pujols contract negotation -- both of which may be worth writing a blog about if they ever develop into anything, I figured I'd use this week's post to talk the teams who I feel are the top 5 winners of the offseason.

It should be noted that I consider a team "winners" if they see needs on their team and effectively address them, this may lead to my results being a little bit different than you would expect. For instance, up front I am going to state that I did not include the Philadelphia Phillies as "winners", for the fact that they lost an important part of their line-up in Jayson Werth, and now have a left-handed heavy lineup with absolutely no right-handed pop -- Cliff Lee or no Cliff Lee. Also, it's important to note that whoever the "winners" are of the offseason may not be the winners of the regular season. Things on paper frequently appear better than the real thing.

Top 5 Winners
5. Chicago White Sox
Biggest Offseason moves:
-Signed Adam Dunn 1B/OF/DH to 4 year/$56 million contract.
-Signed 1B Paul Konerko to a 3 year/$37 million contract
-Signed 2B/SS Alexei Ramirez to a 4 year/$32.5 million extension.


Why they are winners: While it's true alot of what the White Sox did tihs off-season was simply make sure a couple of their cornerstone players were locked up for a while, that in itself can be a big move. Ramirez is one of the better infielders in baseball, and has the ability to play 2B or SS. While he has not quite had a 20-20 season, there seems to be one in his near future. It's true that Konerko is aging, but chances are he will outperform a countract that really does not overpay him. He is essentially a lock for 28+ homers, and is a force in the middle of that line-up, and he will probably benefit to some degree from the addition of Adam Dunn. Dunn is the type of power threat that is becoming increasingly rare in major league baseball, being a lock for homers in the upper 30s. While Dunn is certainly a liability in the field, he will benefit from playing the majority of his games at DH. In short, the White Sox have not lost anyone from their fairly effective team last year, and have strengthened their line-up greatly with the addition of Dunn.

4. Detroit Tigers
Biggest Offseason Moves:
-Signed C/1B Victor Martinez to a 4 year/$50m contract.
-Signed RP Joaquin Benoit to a 3 year/$15m contract.
-Signed SP Brad Penny to a 1 year/$3m contract


Why they are winners: The Tigers were in desperate need of someone in the line-up who can hit who is not named Miguel Cabrera, some depth in their bullpen, and some depth in their starting rotation. Clearly, these three signings address those issues. Martinez is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball -- though it seems likely the Tigers will have him spend at least one-third of his time at DH or first base. The addition of Martinez takes some pressure off of Miguel Cabrera (not that he doesn't thrive under it), and also gives him at least some degree of protection in the line-up. On the whole, the Tigers line-up will be much better with the Switch-hitting Martinez in the line-up. While I kind of feel like the Tigers gave Benoit more years than they should given, given the volatility of relief pitchers, Benoit has for the most part been an effective relief pitcher in his career, and will help their bullpen. Brad Penny is clearly a low-risk high-reward type of player given his recent injury history and ineffectiveness at times, but while he was healthy last year, he pitched very well for the Cardinals. If he can make 30 starts this year, he will be a big help to the rotation.

3. Oakland Athletics
Biggest Offseason Moves:
-Traded for OF Josh Willingham
-Signed DH Hideki Matsui to a 1 year/4.25m contract.
-Traded for OF David DeJesus.
-Signed Brian Fuentes to a 2 year/$10.5m contract.

Why they are winners: The Oakland Athletics, believe it or not, had the best starting rotation in baseball last year as far as ERA goes, but they still didn't come close to making the postseason. It seems that Billy Beane has responded by adding some undervalued players that could really contribute to their extremely weak line-up from last year. Willingham, Matsui, and DeJesus all represent significant upgrades to their line-up. Willingham and Matsui's power may suffer a little bit given the dimensions that theyw ill now be playing in, but despite that, they should contribute a fair percentage of the home runs that this team has come season's end. DeJesus is a classic example of a player who does everything well, but is not outstanding in any aspect of his game, and his numbers should not suffer at all from moving.
Brian Fuentes strengthens their bullpen with a veteran pitcher, and he could also close if the situation calls for it, something that is not completely out of the question given Andrew Bailey's injuries last year.
Given their upgrades, the Oakland Athletics stand to be this year's San Francisco Giants.

2. Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest Offseason Moves:
-Trading Prospects for SP Zack Greinke.
-Trading Prospects for SP Shaun Marcum


Why they are winners: The Brewers have gotten a lot of criticism for not extening Prince Fielder this offseason, but to some degree I feel it is a good move on their part. Fielder is goign to ask for a Ryan Howard-sized deal, and the Brewers can simply not afford that. Additionally, Fielder is not a player who projects to be great for a long period of time.
So, the Brewers, knowing they cannot afford to extend Fielder, decided to try to contend this year in the last year that Fielder will be no the team. The Brewers had an awful starting rotation last year, so they have added a legitimate number 1 and number 2 starter to the mix. Both Marcum and Greinke have good track records, and should perform well for the Brewers. The Brewers stand to have an excellent bounceback year if their line-up performs as it did last year and their revamped rotation pitches up to expectations.


1. Boston Red Sox
-Traded for 1B Adrian Gonzalez, with a long-term extension all but signed according to reports.
-Signed Carl Crawford to a 7 year/$142m contract.
-Signed Bobby Jenks to a 2 year/$12m contract.


Why they are winners: Almost everyone agrees the Red Sox won the offseason, so this should come as no surprise. The Red Sox had to fill the voids left by Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, and they did so admirably. Talks of the Red Sox trading for Adrian Gonzalez had been literally going on for two years, and it finally happened. The Red Sox also shocked everyone by signing Carl Crawford. The Red Sox line-up should be at least as good as it was last year, despite the losses of Beltre and Martinez. The Red Sox, in addition to Bobby Jenks, signed a number of bullpen arms (Dan Wheeler, etc,.) having effectively reconstructed what was one of the worst bullpens in the major leagues last year. Jenks can also close if Papelbon gets injured or continues to slide towards ineffectiveness, though it seems likely the Red Sox would give Daniel Bard a shot at closing first.

On paper, it is arguable that the Red Sox are the best team in the American League. But as I stated at the beginning of this, there are still 162 games for the Red Sox, and all of these other offseason "winners" to play.

I figure I will also post my list of offseason "losers", albeit without analysis. Leave a comment if you are interested as to why certain teams made the list:

5. San Francisco Giants
4. Seattle Mariners
3. Cleveland Indians
2. New York Yankees
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Have a good week everyone, Spring Training is almost here!

Sunday, April 18, 2010

What a weird day

Today (well, yesterday now) had some pretty crazy stuff happen, didn't it?

Ubaldo Jimenez threw a no-hitter. In my opening night post I said that I view him as a Cy Young caliber pitcher this year. Keep making me look smart Ubaldo!

There was a TWENTY-INNING game that the Mets finally won.

The Red Sox completed a suspended game that went 12 innings, their first suspended game since the 80s, and lost after loading the bases with 0 outs.

Pretty weird day, to say the least. But this is what's great about baseball.

Late EDIT: Somehow I forgot to include that Livan Hernandez pitched a complete game shutout while only striking out 3 and walking 2. It was his first shutout since 2004.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Does David Ortiz deserve the scrutiny he is receiving?

Does anyone besides me think the amount of scrutiny David Ortiz is receiving after starting the season 1-for-11 is ridiculous? The fact that Terry Francona has to announce that he is "standing pat" with David Ortiz before the third game of the season has me completely baffled.
There are players all over the major leagues who don't have a hit yet and they haven't received this kind of scrutiny, and one of them is even in New York, in the form of Mark Teixeira. I know that Ortiz had a horrible start to 2009, but does no one remember how his season ended? Using these ridiculously small sample sizes to judge him is idiotic, for lack of a better word.

As a Red Sox fan, I understand people worrying about David Ortiz's production, but it's gotten to a ridiculous level and I honestly don't blame him for his profanity-laden rant in response to questions about a "slump" after the second game of the season. It should be clear that David Ortiz still has something left in his bat after his June-October numbers last year, where he led the American League in Home Runs. Part of the reason for his poor start can probably be attributed to Francona opting to start Ortiz against Sabathia, which was probably primarily only done because it was Opening Night. Some thought Ortiz should be sat against Pettitte, but Ortiz actually has better numbers than the right-handed Lowell does against Pettitte. And, again, he DID have a hit in the series, against a left-hander no less. And, while he had his bad at-bats, that happens to everyone sometimes. He'll get there.

Anyway, I just don't understand the scrutiny he is receiving, especially because he ended last season on a high-note, not a low one. Give Ortiz at least until the end of April before you make judgments on him and ask him why he hasn't produced yet. It's a little hard to produce after only two games (which is when the question has been asked) in a game like baseball.

While I am mostly positive about Ortiz, I do think that in the event he continues to struggle horribly (which I don't think will happen, but it could) the Red Sox will either need to make Lowell a full-time DH (or at least mostly full time) or make a trade for a big bat like Adrian Gonsalez. The good news is that this year the REd Sox don't have to worry about the fact that they have Ortiz under contract for the next year, because next year they only have an option on him, so if he struggles greatly they will have no problem benching him.

Basically Red Sox fans, I'm saying not to worry about Ortiz yet, either because it's far too early or because the Red Sox will seek a suitable internal or external option to plug any type of hole a prolonged slump by Ortiz would create.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Some notes from today's games

Hey everyone,
I thought I'd post a few notes about today's games.

1. The first Yankees-Red Sox series of the season ended today, and while the Red Sox (my team) lost today, I feel like this three game series was one of the better ones that I've seen between the two clubs in a while, with every game being decided by two runs scored late in the game. Additionally, Pettitte and Lackey responded to yesterday's post where I talked about how poorly the starters had pitched in the first two games in the series by both putting up great starts, so that was enjoyable to watch.

2. In today's Dodgers @ Pirates game Garrett Jones homered for his third time this season, meaning he is on track for a whopping 243 Home Runs this season. Obviously, that's not going to happen, but if he can continue to produce for the Pirates and solidify the middle of that order, the Pirates might be a better team than people are giving them credit for.

3. In today's Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox game the White Sox managed to keep a game within two runs where they were out-hit 10 to 2, managing to score three runs on their two hits. Something always intrigues me about a team having more runs than hits in a game. More interestingly, Paul Konerko had all three RBIs in the game, one coming on a Sac Fly and the other two on a 2-Run home run. On both of these scoring plays, the men on base in front of Konerko got there via the walk.

4. In today's Florida Marlins @ New York Mets game the Marlins won despite a sloppy game from their pitchers. Ricky Nolasco was charged with a ball when he went to his mouth while standing on the rubber of the pitching mound beacuse he misunderstood the rules change that went into effect this year where a pitcher can no go to their mouth on the mound, but only if they are not standing on the rubber, and only if they wipe their hand off before gripping the ball. Nolasco still put up a good game, but lost what should have been his first win of the season because of (among other things) a bases-loaded balk from Leo Nunez. Ouch.

That's it for now. Hope everyone enjoyed today's games!

Observations from today's games

Hey everyone, hope you enjoyed some Tuesday baseball! Not every team was in action today, but enough teams were in action today for some interesting observations. While I only actively follow about one game a day while it's happening (typically the Red Sox game), I check the box scores for every game after they all go final. Tell me I have a problem if you want to (I might), but I almost always find a handful of things that interest me enough to make checking all of those box scores pay off. Baseball is just such a quirky game that almost every day something interesting is happening. Here are the two things that interested me the most that I noticed today.

1. In today's Orioles @ Rays game, two guys who worked in a shared closing role for the Atlanta Braves last year were the pitchers of record for opposing teams, those two guys being Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano.

It would not surprise me if this is the first time in history that two guys who got 10+ saves for the same team the year before were both the pitcher's of record on opposing teams the next season, simply because two guys getting that many saves on the same team is rare, and the chance of both closers being used by opposing teams in a single game is also rare. It might happen more than once too, since these two are in the same division..assuming they can hold on to their positions in bullpen hierarchy.

2. In today's Yankees @ Red Sox game both starting pitchers struggled. This means that the top two pitchers for both of these extremely well-funded organizations, all of whom are getting paid incredibly well, have put up some horrible numbers to begin their seasons, numbers that look even worse when you put all four of them together. As ESPNBoston's Gordon Edes put it "Starting pitching in first two games of series: 20 IP, 26 H, 17 ER, 7.65 ERA, $353.6". Obviously what he means by "353.6" is the millions of dollars that all four of these men's (CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and A.J. Burnett) total contracts are worth. Hopefully John Lackey and Andy Pettitte can put up some good numbers tomorrow, or things will be even more laughable. The chances of all four starters putting up such horrible numbers in the first two games of the season, especially when three of the guys often have "ace" attatched to their name, has to be pretty low.

That's it for now.