The Luckiest No-Hitter Ever.

Most of you probably already know that Francisco Liriano threw a no-hitter last night because of the way the media covers such things -- which is kind of the point of this post.

In my opinion, Liriano's start last night is a perfect example of how overblown the idea of a no-hitter is. No-hitter's are largely unfairly glorified by the media and the majority of baseball fans. Liriano's no-hitter last night was largely a product of luck. Twenty-Seven of his Twenty-Nine outs were on balls put in play -- the average Batting Average on Balls in Play would indicate how extremely good Liriano's luck was last night. I haven't looked at the numbers yet, but the two strikeouts Liriano had last night have to be among the lowest number of strikeouts for a pitcher throwing a no-hitter.

My real point here is that a no-hitter is not really a reflection of how good a pitcher is or how good a pitcher's stuff is on a given night due to the fairly large luck factor in baseball. The fact that Roy Halladay can throw a Complete Game and allow four hits and strike out double digit batters and get less fan-fare than Liriano got for his very much inferior start is kind of a flaw in the game. In general, many of the main stream pitching stats seem rather flawed to me with Saves the biggest culprit but with the "milestone" of the no-hitter being a close second.

Should Joe Mauer be catching?

It has long been said that Joe Mauer will stop catching at some point in his career -- though not by anyone in the Minnesota Twins organization. The belief is that at some point, the Twins will decide the wear and tear on his body will become too much, especially given the $184mm invested in him, and move him to another position where he will not get hurt. However, once again, I have heard everyone but the Twins say this. The question is, should he be moved?

Yes, Mauer has missed a number of games with injuries the last three years (and he also missed games in '07 because of injury), and this is a major reason that people argue he should be moved. However, does anyone really know if he will no longer be somewhat injury prone if he DOES stop catching? The answer is no. It may very well be that Mauer is just a guy who ends up on the DL every year, which sucks for the Twins, but he can still be a productive player going on the 15-day DL once every year.

However, that's not my biggest argument agaisnt moving Mauer. The biggest argument I have is that his bat really isn't THAT valuable if you place him anywhere else he can play. Mauer's career .326/.406/.479 line is impressive for sure, but his 81 Home Runs in 3616 Plate Apperances is not. While it's true the Twins could probably deal with a 3B putting up Mauer's numbers, you can bet that they'd rather get some of their Home Runs out of their 3B. Left Field and Right Field -- the other positions suggested for Mauer, are also positions that are typically expected to produce some pop. Shortstop and Centerfield are the only other positions Mauer could occupy and still be considered an elite player at the position -- and neither of those positions is an option for Mauer. So my point here is really that Mauer has maximum value at Catcher, where he is arguable the best in the game right now. Compare Mauer's numbers to any of the other positions he could play, and he's in the middle of the pack.

The Matt Capps Trade

I realize of all of the trades that have gone on recent days (Jorge Cantu, Roy Oswalt, Miguel Tejada, Dan Haren, etc.,) the Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos trade is probably one of the least exciting. However, most of the other trades (except for maybe the Dan Haren trade) made sense to me for both teams, and both teams got a pretty fair deal out of it.

I don't think that is the case with this trade. I think that the Nationals clearly got the better deal, which in some ways is nice to see I guess.

Ramos, who was a stud prospect at the end of last year, at the premium position of Catcher, has had an off year. His value has certainly declined, but I don't think that it has declined to the point that a 1-for-1 trade for Matt Capps makes any kind of sense, especially because Matt Capps is not exactly amazing. Last year, he was non-tendered by the Pirates after putting up a 5.80 ERA as their closer. Certainly his ERA was a product of bad luck, since his 7.6 K/9 and low walk rates were pretty good. However, the ERA he has put up this year of 2.74, is on the opposite end of that spectrum and is pretty much the product of good luck. His strike out rate has actually gone DOWN since last year, although his Walk rate has improved.
Basically, my point is that for most teams, Matt Capps is a serviceable 7th or 8th inning guy, and certainly not a closer. He was a closer for the Pirates and the Nationals because the Pirates had no other options, and the Nationals aren't quite ready to thrust Drew Storen or Tyler Clippard into the role -- although I guess they are going to now. The Twins plan to insert Capps into the closer role, although obviously he will only have it for the rest of this year (pending results I'm sure) as Joe Nathan returns next year.

I understand that the Twins needed bullpen help with the recent struggles of John Rauch as closer, but bullpen help usually comes a lot cheaper than someone with as high of a ceiling as Wilson Ramos. Yes, the Twins will have control of Capps for a number of years before he reaches free agency. And yes, Joe Mauer would have been blocking Wilson Ramos for the rest of time, but the Twins could have included Ramos in a much better deal (in fact he was part of their attempted package for Cliff Lee) than for Capps.

Some people, such as Fangraphs' Dave Cameron think that Ramos' struggles this year (.241/.280/.345 at AAA) decrease his value enough for the trade to be fair for both sides. What Dave Cameron, who I usually agree with, fails to mention is the fact that Wilson Ramos is a 22-year-old catcher, who destroyed AA pitching last year and will probably take a little bit of time to adjust to AAA. His numbers against AAA pitching have not been great, but it's not like he's below the Mendoza line or anything. He has plenty of time, Catchers are one of the slowest position players to make it all the way to the majors, and he is still playing above his age level for a Catcher. It's also kind of important to note that Ramos already has a handful of games in the Major Leagues from earlier this season when Mauer had an injury.

Tomorrow is deadline day, and I will probably make a post about my favorite trades of the last few weeks and how I think they will effect contenders.
Have a good weekend everyone!