Most of you probably already know that the Barry Bonds perjury trail is starting today. Most pundits feel it is fairly likely that Bonds is indicted on perjury charges, and I tend to agree with them. If so, the ramifications of the trial on baseball will be great. However, I will save that post for after his is actually indicted.
This post is more specifically about whether Barry Bonds belongs in the Hall of Fame. In the past, I posted a poll about PEDs on my blog, and the overwhelming sentiment was not to allow guys who are connected to PEDs into the Hall of Fame. While I saw the virtues of both sides of the argument, at the time I argued against most guys attached to PEDs into the Hall of Fame. However, in the last year or so I have had a change of heart -- to some degree in that I believe many of the players who owned up to their steroid use, and have managed to pass many tests since they became instituted, may belong in the Hall of Fame if their numbers dictate it.
However, despite his amazing numbers, I still don't believe that Barry Bonds belongs in the Hall of Fame, and that is something that can be argued whether or not he had used steroids. The fact that he lied to a grand jury itself is likely enough to keep Bonds out of the Hall of Fame. It does not matter that the trial is about steroids -- if the trial had been about any other matter, Bonds' potential indictment would threaten his Hall of Fame chances. If Pete Rose, the all time hits leader, can be kept out of the Hall of Fame when he was not even indicted for any crimes, it seems likely to me that many HoF voters will keep the Home Run King out of the HoF with the same morality rules.
Another major difference between Bonds and other players such as Alex Rodriguez (who never had an official positive test) is that Bonds actually failed an MLB drug test, though he tested positive for amphetmaines and not for steroids. This means that Barry Bonds is actually on record with the MLB as having failed a drug test, something many other players who are connected to PEDs have not done.
Anyway, my basic argument here is that of all of the MLB players from the Steroid Era connected to the period -- Bonds is perhaps the least likely player with Hall of Fame numbers to get into the Hall of Fame, despite being the best player of the era. Again, it will depend on whether or not he is indicted for perjury, but this seems entirely probable.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Pre-Season Predictions
Given that Opening Day is only a couple of weeks away, I thought I'd take a post to make my predictions for divisional and Wild Card winners for the upcoming season. If you are curious about my predictions from last season, you can find them here. Remember, these are only predictions. If you feel I am completely wrong about something, let me know what you think.
American League East: Boston Red Sox.
It's fairly hard to find anyone making pre-season predictions where they dont' feel the Red Sox will win their division. Given their line-up upgrades (Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez), bullpen upgrades (Dan Wheeler, Bobby Jenks) and an expected return to health, it's hard to foresee the Red Sox not winning the division, especially with the Yankees looking weaker than they have in recent years. Also of note is the fact that the Red Sox managed to win 89 games last year despite losing Pedroia in June for the entire season, Victor Martinez for a 6 weeks, Youkilis for 8 weeks, and so on. Even without the upgrades they made, the Red Sox would be a much improved team.
American League Central: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox really only made one major addition this offseason in the form of Adam Dunn. However, their fellow AL Central leaguers made even less progress. The White Sox, of all of the teams in the division, have the best balance between offense and pitching (which is what I based my prediction that the Rangers would win the AL West last season on). The Tigers line-up has been improved, but is still inferior to what the White Sox can put out there. The Twins made very few upgrades this season, and probably have a slightly better line-up than the White Sox, but their pitching has much less depth than the White Sox have. While it's true the White Sox have no true ace, every pitcher in their rotation is average or better -- something no other team in their division can claim to have.
American League West: Oakland Athletics
This division is the most difficult in the AL for me to predict. All three of the contending teams in this division (Athletics, Rangers, and Angels) all made some fairly large changes this offseason, and the number of changes made are sometimes hard to predict. However, I feel that the Athletics most effectively addressed their problems this off-season, and as a result will have a well-banced team capable of taking the division next year. Their additions of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham, not to mention the potential that rookie slugger Chris Carter has, should give them a much-improved line-up. The Athletics have the best pitching staff in the AL West, and quite possibly in the American League, so that should not be an issue.
American League Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays
While it's true the Rays lost two of their more productive hitters in Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, not to mention their closer in Rafael Soriano, I still believe the Rays are capable of winning 90+ games and winning the Wild Card. The Rays, despite having traded Matt Garza, have an excellent rotation with rookie Jeremy Hellickson likely to take Garza's spot in the rotation. Hellickson performed well last year, and it is difficult to doubt young Rays pitchers right now given how well every single one of them has performed in the major leagues. The Rays line-up will be severely diminished, but they have a fairly capable rookie in Desmond Jennings who will take Crawford's post. They also added Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, who should prove to be fairly productive in whatever role they are given. While a team like the Yankees clearly has a better line-up, a commmon adage is that "good pitching beats good hitting", and the Rays clearly have the Yankees beat in that respect.
National League East: Atlanta Braves
With the news that Chase Utley may be out for the entire season, the Braves seem to be the best team in the division. The Phillies may have a ridiculously stacked rotation, but their line-up has been severely depleted with the losses of Jayson Werth and Chase Utley. The left-handed heavy line-up will have a hard time winning consistently on top of having to rely on aging stars like Jimmy Rollins. This is not to say that the Phillies will not still be good, I just believe that the Braves will be able to be better this year with their upgraded line-up and always-good pitching staff.
National League Central: St. Louis Cardinals
In what is possibly Albert Pujols' last season on the Cardinals, I think the Cardinals should be able to take the division. The Brewers made some major upgrades, but recent injury news involving both star pitchers they added (Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum) makes me back off a little on predicting them to win their division. The Cardinals have their own injury problems in the starting rotation (Adam Wainwright), but they still have Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia as a solid one and two, and plenty of guys to take the ball behind them. The Brewers do not have that same luxury.
National League West: Colorado Rockies
Just as the West is hard to predict in the American League, it is equally difficult to predict in the National League due to the fact that many of the teams in many ways seem equally matched, with no clear dominant team. However, I feel over the course of a long season, the Colorado Rockies probably have the capacity to most consistently win. The emergence of Carlos Gonzalez last season, and a full season of Troy Tulowitzki (hopefully), both point towards a great line-up this season. Ubaldo Jimenez also showed what he could do last season, and while the starting rotation is very likely the wek point for this team, most of the other teams in their division also do not have overwhelming strength in this area, making their better line-up the determining factor.
National League Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies.
I feel that, just as last season, the Phillies and Braves are quite possibly interchangable between the Wild Card and the NL East Title. However, as I stated above in my discussion of the Braves, I feel the Braves are the better team this year. However, given their dominant rotation, the Phillies seem likely to win the most games of all non-division winners this year.
Anyway, that's it for now.
American League East: Boston Red Sox.
It's fairly hard to find anyone making pre-season predictions where they dont' feel the Red Sox will win their division. Given their line-up upgrades (Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez), bullpen upgrades (Dan Wheeler, Bobby Jenks) and an expected return to health, it's hard to foresee the Red Sox not winning the division, especially with the Yankees looking weaker than they have in recent years. Also of note is the fact that the Red Sox managed to win 89 games last year despite losing Pedroia in June for the entire season, Victor Martinez for a 6 weeks, Youkilis for 8 weeks, and so on. Even without the upgrades they made, the Red Sox would be a much improved team.
American League Central: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox really only made one major addition this offseason in the form of Adam Dunn. However, their fellow AL Central leaguers made even less progress. The White Sox, of all of the teams in the division, have the best balance between offense and pitching (which is what I based my prediction that the Rangers would win the AL West last season on). The Tigers line-up has been improved, but is still inferior to what the White Sox can put out there. The Twins made very few upgrades this season, and probably have a slightly better line-up than the White Sox, but their pitching has much less depth than the White Sox have. While it's true the White Sox have no true ace, every pitcher in their rotation is average or better -- something no other team in their division can claim to have.
American League West: Oakland Athletics
This division is the most difficult in the AL for me to predict. All three of the contending teams in this division (Athletics, Rangers, and Angels) all made some fairly large changes this offseason, and the number of changes made are sometimes hard to predict. However, I feel that the Athletics most effectively addressed their problems this off-season, and as a result will have a well-banced team capable of taking the division next year. Their additions of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham, not to mention the potential that rookie slugger Chris Carter has, should give them a much-improved line-up. The Athletics have the best pitching staff in the AL West, and quite possibly in the American League, so that should not be an issue.
American League Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays
While it's true the Rays lost two of their more productive hitters in Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, not to mention their closer in Rafael Soriano, I still believe the Rays are capable of winning 90+ games and winning the Wild Card. The Rays, despite having traded Matt Garza, have an excellent rotation with rookie Jeremy Hellickson likely to take Garza's spot in the rotation. Hellickson performed well last year, and it is difficult to doubt young Rays pitchers right now given how well every single one of them has performed in the major leagues. The Rays line-up will be severely diminished, but they have a fairly capable rookie in Desmond Jennings who will take Crawford's post. They also added Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, who should prove to be fairly productive in whatever role they are given. While a team like the Yankees clearly has a better line-up, a commmon adage is that "good pitching beats good hitting", and the Rays clearly have the Yankees beat in that respect.
National League East: Atlanta Braves
With the news that Chase Utley may be out for the entire season, the Braves seem to be the best team in the division. The Phillies may have a ridiculously stacked rotation, but their line-up has been severely depleted with the losses of Jayson Werth and Chase Utley. The left-handed heavy line-up will have a hard time winning consistently on top of having to rely on aging stars like Jimmy Rollins. This is not to say that the Phillies will not still be good, I just believe that the Braves will be able to be better this year with their upgraded line-up and always-good pitching staff.
National League Central: St. Louis Cardinals
In what is possibly Albert Pujols' last season on the Cardinals, I think the Cardinals should be able to take the division. The Brewers made some major upgrades, but recent injury news involving both star pitchers they added (Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum) makes me back off a little on predicting them to win their division. The Cardinals have their own injury problems in the starting rotation (Adam Wainwright), but they still have Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia as a solid one and two, and plenty of guys to take the ball behind them. The Brewers do not have that same luxury.
National League West: Colorado Rockies
Just as the West is hard to predict in the American League, it is equally difficult to predict in the National League due to the fact that many of the teams in many ways seem equally matched, with no clear dominant team. However, I feel over the course of a long season, the Colorado Rockies probably have the capacity to most consistently win. The emergence of Carlos Gonzalez last season, and a full season of Troy Tulowitzki (hopefully), both point towards a great line-up this season. Ubaldo Jimenez also showed what he could do last season, and while the starting rotation is very likely the wek point for this team, most of the other teams in their division also do not have overwhelming strength in this area, making their better line-up the determining factor.
National League Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies.
I feel that, just as last season, the Phillies and Braves are quite possibly interchangable between the Wild Card and the NL East Title. However, as I stated above in my discussion of the Braves, I feel the Braves are the better team this year. However, given their dominant rotation, the Phillies seem likely to win the most games of all non-division winners this year.
Anyway, that's it for now.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Minor League Equivalency 2
Last year, I made a post where I used the Minor League Equivalency calcutor to calculate the stats of various rookies who were projected to start last year. Looking at last year's post, you can probably notice that it is certainly not a perfect calculator -- but it is not as if it was completely wrong, especially in the cases of Jason Heyward and Austin Jackson. Also, it doesn't help that I completely overlooked Buster Posey, but such things happen.
Anyway, the point is I thought I would do the same this season, and see what the calculator says certain up and coming rookies will do this season. To remind you, the calculator uses stats from a given level of the minor leagues and projects it out to the Major League level, based on some advanced algorithm. It should be noted that the calculator only works for position players, so I can't gauge potential rookies of the year like Jeremy Hellickson and Aroldis Chapman.
Just like last year, I am going to start with an Atlanta Braves rookie. This time, though, it's going to be Freddie Freeman who is currently slated to start at 1B for the Braves.
Freeman, who had an excellent season last year at AAA Gwinnett, projects out to a .270/.319/.428 line with 14 homers, 29 doubles, and 67 RBIs. His low OBP is mostly a product of his K/BB rate -- freeman strikes out almost twice as often as he walks, even in the minors. The Calculator projects it to get even worse in the majors, but if Freeman can improve on that, he will certainly be in line for a solid rookie season especially for an age 21 season.
Next up is the Phillies' Outfielder Domonic Brown. His name is one of the hotter rookie names heard this offseason. But does he deserve the praise he is getting? It should be noted that it seems likely given a crowded Phillies outfield, that he starts in a platoon role or in Triple A. However, given his reputation as an excellent 5-tool top prospect, I would be shocked to see him work his way into an every day role this season.
Here is how the calculator feels he would do in a full season: .264/.325/.502, 22 homers, 38 Doubles, 20 SB, 66 RBIs. The Calculator seems to feel that Brown has an excellent chance to mash a huge number of extra base hits next season if he plays full time, while also having him just barely obtaining a 20-20 season his rookie year, which would probably make him a lock for the Rookie of the Year if he puts up these numbers. Like Freeman, Brown is plagued by a horrible walk to strikeout rate, resulting in his low average and OBP in the majors. Unlike Freeman, despite those problems, the Calculator indicates that Brown's ability to slug (a .502 SLG for a rookie is huge), likely will make him a heavily contributing player without a high OBP.
Next is much talked about successor to Jorge Posada, Yankees catcher Jesus Montero. It seems likely that he ends up sharing some time with Russel Martin this year, but given his impressive performance in the minors last year, he is fully expected to become the primary catcher for the Yankees by next year if not sooner. Here is the calculator's full-season projection for Montero, based on his impressive season in the minors last year: .250/.304/.429 with 17 homers, 29 doubles, and 59 RBIs. Like the two young hitters discussed above, Montero has a major problem with the strike out that leads to a hamstrung average and OBP. Despite this, for a 21-year-old catcher, even if Montero only does what this projection believes he will do, those are pretty solid numbers. Numbers that the Yankees can only assume will get better.
For this season, those three seem to me to be the most likely position playing rookies to get a fair number of at bats next season. All three of them are projected to have at the very least, a league-average season for a rookie. Domonic Brown, if he is able to get the at-bats and live up to his five-tool hype, certainly looks to be the most dominant of these three players for the 2011 season, and quite possibly in the future.
Anyway, the point is I thought I would do the same this season, and see what the calculator says certain up and coming rookies will do this season. To remind you, the calculator uses stats from a given level of the minor leagues and projects it out to the Major League level, based on some advanced algorithm. It should be noted that the calculator only works for position players, so I can't gauge potential rookies of the year like Jeremy Hellickson and Aroldis Chapman.
Just like last year, I am going to start with an Atlanta Braves rookie. This time, though, it's going to be Freddie Freeman who is currently slated to start at 1B for the Braves.
Freeman, who had an excellent season last year at AAA Gwinnett, projects out to a .270/.319/.428 line with 14 homers, 29 doubles, and 67 RBIs. His low OBP is mostly a product of his K/BB rate -- freeman strikes out almost twice as often as he walks, even in the minors. The Calculator projects it to get even worse in the majors, but if Freeman can improve on that, he will certainly be in line for a solid rookie season especially for an age 21 season.
Next up is the Phillies' Outfielder Domonic Brown. His name is one of the hotter rookie names heard this offseason. But does he deserve the praise he is getting? It should be noted that it seems likely given a crowded Phillies outfield, that he starts in a platoon role or in Triple A. However, given his reputation as an excellent 5-tool top prospect, I would be shocked to see him work his way into an every day role this season.
Here is how the calculator feels he would do in a full season: .264/.325/.502, 22 homers, 38 Doubles, 20 SB, 66 RBIs. The Calculator seems to feel that Brown has an excellent chance to mash a huge number of extra base hits next season if he plays full time, while also having him just barely obtaining a 20-20 season his rookie year, which would probably make him a lock for the Rookie of the Year if he puts up these numbers. Like Freeman, Brown is plagued by a horrible walk to strikeout rate, resulting in his low average and OBP in the majors. Unlike Freeman, despite those problems, the Calculator indicates that Brown's ability to slug (a .502 SLG for a rookie is huge), likely will make him a heavily contributing player without a high OBP.
Next is much talked about successor to Jorge Posada, Yankees catcher Jesus Montero. It seems likely that he ends up sharing some time with Russel Martin this year, but given his impressive performance in the minors last year, he is fully expected to become the primary catcher for the Yankees by next year if not sooner. Here is the calculator's full-season projection for Montero, based on his impressive season in the minors last year: .250/.304/.429 with 17 homers, 29 doubles, and 59 RBIs. Like the two young hitters discussed above, Montero has a major problem with the strike out that leads to a hamstrung average and OBP. Despite this, for a 21-year-old catcher, even if Montero only does what this projection believes he will do, those are pretty solid numbers. Numbers that the Yankees can only assume will get better.
For this season, those three seem to me to be the most likely position playing rookies to get a fair number of at bats next season. All three of them are projected to have at the very least, a league-average season for a rookie. Domonic Brown, if he is able to get the at-bats and live up to his five-tool hype, certainly looks to be the most dominant of these three players for the 2011 season, and quite possibly in the future.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Albert Pujols: The LeBron James of Baseball?
I have seen a lot of comparisons on the internet, and heard some of them in person, of LeBron James and Albert Pujols. Of course, these comparisons hinge on the fact that Pujols and the Cardinals did not come to an agreement before the end of Pujols' self-imposed deadline. I am here to refute the fact that Pujols is anything like LeBron James, even if Pujols does end up leaving the Cardinals for the Cubs or some other team.
1. Pujols hasn't even left yet, and he may not.
He imposed his deadline because now he just wants to focus on playing, something that is certainly respectable. There is still some chance that Pujols gets signed during the exclusive free agency period where the Cardinals can be the only team to talk to him. It's also possbile the Cardinals could retain him after he can talk to anyone. So, obviously, the fact that Pujols hasn't even left and spurned the team he spent years with, is a pretty big difference. Granted, it could be a temporary difference.
2. The Cardinals did not offer him anything close to market value.
Now, I'm not anywhere close to being an expert on basketball, but as I recall the Cavaliers actually offered James MORE money than the Heat did, making this comparison less valid. If you believe the reports, the Cardinals offered Pujols something like 8 years at $21m a year. Now, this sounds like a lot of money to you and me, but it's important to note what lesser (but still clearly very good) First Basemen are being paid right now:
Mark Teixeira - 22.5m/year
Ryan Howard - $25m/year
Who in their right mind, would give Pujols a serious offer that makes him only the third highest player at his position? I have a serious feeling that if Pujols were just offered market value ($26m/year, which would still be a home town discount) as the best first basemen in the game, he would probably take the deal. The reason this varies so much from LeBron James, is that it is not as if Pujols was offered an extremely fair deal for his "talents" like LeBron was, the Cardinals were trying to severely underpay him.
3. Pujols helped the Cardinals win a championship.
Clearly something LeBron James never did for the Cavaliers. Unlike with James, it is not as if Pujols did not bring his city greatest reward in all of his respective sport. It stands to reason, similarly, that Cardinals fans will not be nearly as vociferous towards Pujols as Cavaliers fans are towards LeBron, given this fact. I am not saying they won't be hostile -- they probably will be if he leaves, just not AS hostile.
4. The Cardinals before Pujols were not perennial losers.
The Cavaliers, throughout NBA history before LeBron James, were a horrible team. The St. Louis Cardinals are far from it. If you didn't know, the Cardinals have the second most championships of any MLB team with 10 World Series Championships. They won 9 of those without Pujols. The fact that the Cardinals are known for winning also makes the comparison difficult. Pujols is not the one bright light in the history of the franchise that everyone hopes will win them a championship some day. As I stated earlier, Pujols already helped them win one championship, and they won many more without him.
5. Pujols is not the only superstar on the team
In case you forgot, the Cardinals also have Matt Holliday and an extremely good starting rotation. Not to mention a steadily rising star in Colby Rasmus. The Cardinals would certainly be able to reload if they lost Pujols -- they do not have all of their eggs in one basket like the Cavaliers did.
Anyway, that's it for now. It will be interesting to see where Pujols lands next witner.
1. Pujols hasn't even left yet, and he may not.
He imposed his deadline because now he just wants to focus on playing, something that is certainly respectable. There is still some chance that Pujols gets signed during the exclusive free agency period where the Cardinals can be the only team to talk to him. It's also possbile the Cardinals could retain him after he can talk to anyone. So, obviously, the fact that Pujols hasn't even left and spurned the team he spent years with, is a pretty big difference. Granted, it could be a temporary difference.
2. The Cardinals did not offer him anything close to market value.
Now, I'm not anywhere close to being an expert on basketball, but as I recall the Cavaliers actually offered James MORE money than the Heat did, making this comparison less valid. If you believe the reports, the Cardinals offered Pujols something like 8 years at $21m a year. Now, this sounds like a lot of money to you and me, but it's important to note what lesser (but still clearly very good) First Basemen are being paid right now:
Mark Teixeira - 22.5m/year
Ryan Howard - $25m/year
Who in their right mind, would give Pujols a serious offer that makes him only the third highest player at his position? I have a serious feeling that if Pujols were just offered market value ($26m/year, which would still be a home town discount) as the best first basemen in the game, he would probably take the deal. The reason this varies so much from LeBron James, is that it is not as if Pujols was offered an extremely fair deal for his "talents" like LeBron was, the Cardinals were trying to severely underpay him.
3. Pujols helped the Cardinals win a championship.
Clearly something LeBron James never did for the Cavaliers. Unlike with James, it is not as if Pujols did not bring his city greatest reward in all of his respective sport. It stands to reason, similarly, that Cardinals fans will not be nearly as vociferous towards Pujols as Cavaliers fans are towards LeBron, given this fact. I am not saying they won't be hostile -- they probably will be if he leaves, just not AS hostile.
4. The Cardinals before Pujols were not perennial losers.
The Cavaliers, throughout NBA history before LeBron James, were a horrible team. The St. Louis Cardinals are far from it. If you didn't know, the Cardinals have the second most championships of any MLB team with 10 World Series Championships. They won 9 of those without Pujols. The fact that the Cardinals are known for winning also makes the comparison difficult. Pujols is not the one bright light in the history of the franchise that everyone hopes will win them a championship some day. As I stated earlier, Pujols already helped them win one championship, and they won many more without him.
5. Pujols is not the only superstar on the team
In case you forgot, the Cardinals also have Matt Holliday and an extremely good starting rotation. Not to mention a steadily rising star in Colby Rasmus. The Cardinals would certainly be able to reload if they lost Pujols -- they do not have all of their eggs in one basket like the Cavaliers did.
Anyway, that's it for now. It will be interesting to see where Pujols lands next witner.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Biggest Winners of the Offseason
Since nothing of great magnitude is going on in the baseball world, except for the ongoing Michael Young situation and the Albert Pujols contract negotation -- both of which may be worth writing a blog about if they ever develop into anything, I figured I'd use this week's post to talk the teams who I feel are the top 5 winners of the offseason.
It should be noted that I consider a team "winners" if they see needs on their team and effectively address them, this may lead to my results being a little bit different than you would expect. For instance, up front I am going to state that I did not include the Philadelphia Phillies as "winners", for the fact that they lost an important part of their line-up in Jayson Werth, and now have a left-handed heavy lineup with absolutely no right-handed pop -- Cliff Lee or no Cliff Lee. Also, it's important to note that whoever the "winners" are of the offseason may not be the winners of the regular season. Things on paper frequently appear better than the real thing.
Top 5 Winners
5. Chicago White Sox
Biggest Offseason moves:
-Signed Adam Dunn 1B/OF/DH to 4 year/$56 million contract.
-Signed 1B Paul Konerko to a 3 year/$37 million contract
-Signed 2B/SS Alexei Ramirez to a 4 year/$32.5 million extension.
Why they are winners: While it's true alot of what the White Sox did tihs off-season was simply make sure a couple of their cornerstone players were locked up for a while, that in itself can be a big move. Ramirez is one of the better infielders in baseball, and has the ability to play 2B or SS. While he has not quite had a 20-20 season, there seems to be one in his near future. It's true that Konerko is aging, but chances are he will outperform a countract that really does not overpay him. He is essentially a lock for 28+ homers, and is a force in the middle of that line-up, and he will probably benefit to some degree from the addition of Adam Dunn. Dunn is the type of power threat that is becoming increasingly rare in major league baseball, being a lock for homers in the upper 30s. While Dunn is certainly a liability in the field, he will benefit from playing the majority of his games at DH. In short, the White Sox have not lost anyone from their fairly effective team last year, and have strengthened their line-up greatly with the addition of Dunn.
4. Detroit Tigers
Biggest Offseason Moves:
-Signed C/1B Victor Martinez to a 4 year/$50m contract.
-Signed RP Joaquin Benoit to a 3 year/$15m contract.
-Signed SP Brad Penny to a 1 year/$3m contract
Why they are winners: The Tigers were in desperate need of someone in the line-up who can hit who is not named Miguel Cabrera, some depth in their bullpen, and some depth in their starting rotation. Clearly, these three signings address those issues. Martinez is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball -- though it seems likely the Tigers will have him spend at least one-third of his time at DH or first base. The addition of Martinez takes some pressure off of Miguel Cabrera (not that he doesn't thrive under it), and also gives him at least some degree of protection in the line-up. On the whole, the Tigers line-up will be much better with the Switch-hitting Martinez in the line-up. While I kind of feel like the Tigers gave Benoit more years than they should given, given the volatility of relief pitchers, Benoit has for the most part been an effective relief pitcher in his career, and will help their bullpen. Brad Penny is clearly a low-risk high-reward type of player given his recent injury history and ineffectiveness at times, but while he was healthy last year, he pitched very well for the Cardinals. If he can make 30 starts this year, he will be a big help to the rotation.
3. Oakland Athletics
Biggest Offseason Moves:
-Traded for OF Josh Willingham
-Signed DH Hideki Matsui to a 1 year/4.25m contract.
-Traded for OF David DeJesus.
-Signed Brian Fuentes to a 2 year/$10.5m contract.
Why they are winners: The Oakland Athletics, believe it or not, had the best starting rotation in baseball last year as far as ERA goes, but they still didn't come close to making the postseason. It seems that Billy Beane has responded by adding some undervalued players that could really contribute to their extremely weak line-up from last year. Willingham, Matsui, and DeJesus all represent significant upgrades to their line-up. Willingham and Matsui's power may suffer a little bit given the dimensions that theyw ill now be playing in, but despite that, they should contribute a fair percentage of the home runs that this team has come season's end. DeJesus is a classic example of a player who does everything well, but is not outstanding in any aspect of his game, and his numbers should not suffer at all from moving.
Brian Fuentes strengthens their bullpen with a veteran pitcher, and he could also close if the situation calls for it, something that is not completely out of the question given Andrew Bailey's injuries last year.
Given their upgrades, the Oakland Athletics stand to be this year's San Francisco Giants.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest Offseason Moves:
-Trading Prospects for SP Zack Greinke.
-Trading Prospects for SP Shaun Marcum
Why they are winners: The Brewers have gotten a lot of criticism for not extening Prince Fielder this offseason, but to some degree I feel it is a good move on their part. Fielder is goign to ask for a Ryan Howard-sized deal, and the Brewers can simply not afford that. Additionally, Fielder is not a player who projects to be great for a long period of time.
So, the Brewers, knowing they cannot afford to extend Fielder, decided to try to contend this year in the last year that Fielder will be no the team. The Brewers had an awful starting rotation last year, so they have added a legitimate number 1 and number 2 starter to the mix. Both Marcum and Greinke have good track records, and should perform well for the Brewers. The Brewers stand to have an excellent bounceback year if their line-up performs as it did last year and their revamped rotation pitches up to expectations.
1. Boston Red Sox
-Traded for 1B Adrian Gonzalez, with a long-term extension all but signed according to reports.
-Signed Carl Crawford to a 7 year/$142m contract.
-Signed Bobby Jenks to a 2 year/$12m contract.
Why they are winners: Almost everyone agrees the Red Sox won the offseason, so this should come as no surprise. The Red Sox had to fill the voids left by Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, and they did so admirably. Talks of the Red Sox trading for Adrian Gonzalez had been literally going on for two years, and it finally happened. The Red Sox also shocked everyone by signing Carl Crawford. The Red Sox line-up should be at least as good as it was last year, despite the losses of Beltre and Martinez. The Red Sox, in addition to Bobby Jenks, signed a number of bullpen arms (Dan Wheeler, etc,.) having effectively reconstructed what was one of the worst bullpens in the major leagues last year. Jenks can also close if Papelbon gets injured or continues to slide towards ineffectiveness, though it seems likely the Red Sox would give Daniel Bard a shot at closing first.
On paper, it is arguable that the Red Sox are the best team in the American League. But as I stated at the beginning of this, there are still 162 games for the Red Sox, and all of these other offseason "winners" to play.
I figure I will also post my list of offseason "losers", albeit without analysis. Leave a comment if you are interested as to why certain teams made the list:
5. San Francisco Giants
4. Seattle Mariners
3. Cleveland Indians
2. New York Yankees
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Have a good week everyone, Spring Training is almost here!
It should be noted that I consider a team "winners" if they see needs on their team and effectively address them, this may lead to my results being a little bit different than you would expect. For instance, up front I am going to state that I did not include the Philadelphia Phillies as "winners", for the fact that they lost an important part of their line-up in Jayson Werth, and now have a left-handed heavy lineup with absolutely no right-handed pop -- Cliff Lee or no Cliff Lee. Also, it's important to note that whoever the "winners" are of the offseason may not be the winners of the regular season. Things on paper frequently appear better than the real thing.
Top 5 Winners
5. Chicago White Sox
Biggest Offseason moves:
-Signed Adam Dunn 1B/OF/DH to 4 year/$56 million contract.
-Signed 1B Paul Konerko to a 3 year/$37 million contract
-Signed 2B/SS Alexei Ramirez to a 4 year/$32.5 million extension.
Why they are winners: While it's true alot of what the White Sox did tihs off-season was simply make sure a couple of their cornerstone players were locked up for a while, that in itself can be a big move. Ramirez is one of the better infielders in baseball, and has the ability to play 2B or SS. While he has not quite had a 20-20 season, there seems to be one in his near future. It's true that Konerko is aging, but chances are he will outperform a countract that really does not overpay him. He is essentially a lock for 28+ homers, and is a force in the middle of that line-up, and he will probably benefit to some degree from the addition of Adam Dunn. Dunn is the type of power threat that is becoming increasingly rare in major league baseball, being a lock for homers in the upper 30s. While Dunn is certainly a liability in the field, he will benefit from playing the majority of his games at DH. In short, the White Sox have not lost anyone from their fairly effective team last year, and have strengthened their line-up greatly with the addition of Dunn.
4. Detroit Tigers
Biggest Offseason Moves:
-Signed C/1B Victor Martinez to a 4 year/$50m contract.
-Signed RP Joaquin Benoit to a 3 year/$15m contract.
-Signed SP Brad Penny to a 1 year/$3m contract
Why they are winners: The Tigers were in desperate need of someone in the line-up who can hit who is not named Miguel Cabrera, some depth in their bullpen, and some depth in their starting rotation. Clearly, these three signings address those issues. Martinez is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball -- though it seems likely the Tigers will have him spend at least one-third of his time at DH or first base. The addition of Martinez takes some pressure off of Miguel Cabrera (not that he doesn't thrive under it), and also gives him at least some degree of protection in the line-up. On the whole, the Tigers line-up will be much better with the Switch-hitting Martinez in the line-up. While I kind of feel like the Tigers gave Benoit more years than they should given, given the volatility of relief pitchers, Benoit has for the most part been an effective relief pitcher in his career, and will help their bullpen. Brad Penny is clearly a low-risk high-reward type of player given his recent injury history and ineffectiveness at times, but while he was healthy last year, he pitched very well for the Cardinals. If he can make 30 starts this year, he will be a big help to the rotation.
3. Oakland Athletics
Biggest Offseason Moves:
-Traded for OF Josh Willingham
-Signed DH Hideki Matsui to a 1 year/4.25m contract.
-Traded for OF David DeJesus.
-Signed Brian Fuentes to a 2 year/$10.5m contract.
Why they are winners: The Oakland Athletics, believe it or not, had the best starting rotation in baseball last year as far as ERA goes, but they still didn't come close to making the postseason. It seems that Billy Beane has responded by adding some undervalued players that could really contribute to their extremely weak line-up from last year. Willingham, Matsui, and DeJesus all represent significant upgrades to their line-up. Willingham and Matsui's power may suffer a little bit given the dimensions that theyw ill now be playing in, but despite that, they should contribute a fair percentage of the home runs that this team has come season's end. DeJesus is a classic example of a player who does everything well, but is not outstanding in any aspect of his game, and his numbers should not suffer at all from moving.
Brian Fuentes strengthens their bullpen with a veteran pitcher, and he could also close if the situation calls for it, something that is not completely out of the question given Andrew Bailey's injuries last year.
Given their upgrades, the Oakland Athletics stand to be this year's San Francisco Giants.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest Offseason Moves:
-Trading Prospects for SP Zack Greinke.
-Trading Prospects for SP Shaun Marcum
Why they are winners: The Brewers have gotten a lot of criticism for not extening Prince Fielder this offseason, but to some degree I feel it is a good move on their part. Fielder is goign to ask for a Ryan Howard-sized deal, and the Brewers can simply not afford that. Additionally, Fielder is not a player who projects to be great for a long period of time.
So, the Brewers, knowing they cannot afford to extend Fielder, decided to try to contend this year in the last year that Fielder will be no the team. The Brewers had an awful starting rotation last year, so they have added a legitimate number 1 and number 2 starter to the mix. Both Marcum and Greinke have good track records, and should perform well for the Brewers. The Brewers stand to have an excellent bounceback year if their line-up performs as it did last year and their revamped rotation pitches up to expectations.
1. Boston Red Sox
-Traded for 1B Adrian Gonzalez, with a long-term extension all but signed according to reports.
-Signed Carl Crawford to a 7 year/$142m contract.
-Signed Bobby Jenks to a 2 year/$12m contract.
Why they are winners: Almost everyone agrees the Red Sox won the offseason, so this should come as no surprise. The Red Sox had to fill the voids left by Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, and they did so admirably. Talks of the Red Sox trading for Adrian Gonzalez had been literally going on for two years, and it finally happened. The Red Sox also shocked everyone by signing Carl Crawford. The Red Sox line-up should be at least as good as it was last year, despite the losses of Beltre and Martinez. The Red Sox, in addition to Bobby Jenks, signed a number of bullpen arms (Dan Wheeler, etc,.) having effectively reconstructed what was one of the worst bullpens in the major leagues last year. Jenks can also close if Papelbon gets injured or continues to slide towards ineffectiveness, though it seems likely the Red Sox would give Daniel Bard a shot at closing first.
On paper, it is arguable that the Red Sox are the best team in the American League. But as I stated at the beginning of this, there are still 162 games for the Red Sox, and all of these other offseason "winners" to play.
I figure I will also post my list of offseason "losers", albeit without analysis. Leave a comment if you are interested as to why certain teams made the list:
5. San Francisco Giants
4. Seattle Mariners
3. Cleveland Indians
2. New York Yankees
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Have a good week everyone, Spring Training is almost here!
Monday, February 7, 2011
Andy Pettitte: Hall of Famer?
As most of you have probably heard by now, Andy Pettitte has officially declared his retirement. This is going to cause a lot of problems for the Yankees rotation this year, but that is not really the topic of this post. As is frequently the case when a player with a lengthy and effective career retires, the debates have begun as to whether Andy Pettite should be in the Hall of Fame in 5 years when he is eligible. I am going to join that debate.
To start off, I am simply going to state that I do not believe Andy Pettitte belongs in the Hall of Fame.
Those who believe he should be in the Hall of Fame cite his impressive post-season statistics as the primary reason. If you didn’t know, Pettitte holds the record for the most wins in the post-season. This is no doubt impressive, but also something that should probably be taken with a grain of salt. Pettitte plays in an era where the postseason is set up in such a way that there are many chances for a pitcher on a very good team to get postseason wins. Great pitchers from the past have absolutely no chance to rank anywhere near the top of such a list, meaning that saying “Pettitte has the most postseason wins of all time” is kind of a hollow statement in that the current post-season format, as compared to the past, makes it much easier for him to accrue wins.
If you look at the list of the most postseason wins, everyone on the list is a modern pitcher. Now, it’s true that Pettitte has more wins than guys from his era who are known for their postseason ability like John Smoltz and Curt Schilling, but a comparison of their other stats shows that Pettitte was not the best postseason starter of all time, and simply benefitted from better run support and more appearances in the postseason. Here are those three pitcher’s postseason stats:
Pettitte: 19-10, 3.83 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 1.304 WHIP.
Smoltz: 15-4, 2.67 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 1.144 WHIP.
Schilling: 11-2, 2.23 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.125 WHIP
It should be fairly clear from those statistics that despite having fewer wins, Smoltz and Schilling are in fact in a higher class than Pettitte as far as their post-season performances go. They won a lot of games in a lot fewer appearances, and put up much more dominant numbers than Pettitte ever did. I chose Smoltz and Schilling because they are both guys who are often cited as future Hall of Famers in part because of their post-season stats, so I thought it necessary to show what more legitimate Hall of Fame candidates had done in the postseason.
The other argument people tend to make is simply stating that Pettitte’s regular season statistics are good enough, combined with his postseason success, to get him into the Hall of Fame. Once again, I disagree.
Here is Pettitte’s career line: 240-138, 3.88 ERA, 1.357 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 6.6 K/9.
Here is Pedro Martinez’s career line: 219-100, 2.93 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 10.0 K/9.
Once again, for comparison’s sake, I am using someone who is typically considered a future Hall of Famer to compare Pettitte’s numbers too, just to indicate how far off the pace he is in everything but Wins. While Pettitte’s career winning percentage is fairly impressive – No one who is 102 games over the .500 mark for Wins has ever NOT made it in into the hall of fame. The rest of Pettitte’s numbers are not anywhere near that elite. His ERA, WHIP, and Hits and Strikeouts per nine innings are all fairly solid, and fairly typical for a Number 3 starter. How many pitchers in the Hall of Fame have given up more than one hit per inning in their career? The answer is one, and he got in 65 years ago. How many Number 3 starters make the Hall of Fame? Only the ones who have the longevity to win 300 games, which Pettitte has not done. Once again, Pettitte’s win total is inflated by the great offenses he pitched for.
There may have been a time where Win Percentage MIGHT have been enough to get Pettitte into the Hall of Fame, but if the last two American League Cy Young Award winners, who were not even in the top 10 in Wins in their respective years (Zach Greinke, 16-8 in 2009 and Felix Hernandez, 13-12 in 2010) indicate anything, it is that voters are starting to look at more than just Wins.
Now, I feel it necessary to post a disclaimer in saying that I think Andy Pettitte is certainly a very good pitcher. If I did not think so, I would not have begun this article by stating that the Yankees rotation is going to miss him. However, being in the Hall of Fame means being MORE than very good. It means being among the best of your era. Something that Andy Pettitte certainly is not. It should be noted that I did not even bring up pitchers like Randy Johnson and other pitchers who seem to be a lock for first ballot on the Hall of Fame. Pettitte will forever be remembered as a good player with multiple World Series wins and rings, especially because he plays for the biggest team in the sport, but this does not make him a Hall of Famer.
To start off, I am simply going to state that I do not believe Andy Pettitte belongs in the Hall of Fame.
Those who believe he should be in the Hall of Fame cite his impressive post-season statistics as the primary reason. If you didn’t know, Pettitte holds the record for the most wins in the post-season. This is no doubt impressive, but also something that should probably be taken with a grain of salt. Pettitte plays in an era where the postseason is set up in such a way that there are many chances for a pitcher on a very good team to get postseason wins. Great pitchers from the past have absolutely no chance to rank anywhere near the top of such a list, meaning that saying “Pettitte has the most postseason wins of all time” is kind of a hollow statement in that the current post-season format, as compared to the past, makes it much easier for him to accrue wins.
If you look at the list of the most postseason wins, everyone on the list is a modern pitcher. Now, it’s true that Pettitte has more wins than guys from his era who are known for their postseason ability like John Smoltz and Curt Schilling, but a comparison of their other stats shows that Pettitte was not the best postseason starter of all time, and simply benefitted from better run support and more appearances in the postseason. Here are those three pitcher’s postseason stats:
Pettitte: 19-10, 3.83 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 1.304 WHIP.
Smoltz: 15-4, 2.67 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 1.144 WHIP.
Schilling: 11-2, 2.23 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.125 WHIP
It should be fairly clear from those statistics that despite having fewer wins, Smoltz and Schilling are in fact in a higher class than Pettitte as far as their post-season performances go. They won a lot of games in a lot fewer appearances, and put up much more dominant numbers than Pettitte ever did. I chose Smoltz and Schilling because they are both guys who are often cited as future Hall of Famers in part because of their post-season stats, so I thought it necessary to show what more legitimate Hall of Fame candidates had done in the postseason.
The other argument people tend to make is simply stating that Pettitte’s regular season statistics are good enough, combined with his postseason success, to get him into the Hall of Fame. Once again, I disagree.
Here is Pettitte’s career line: 240-138, 3.88 ERA, 1.357 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 6.6 K/9.
Here is Pedro Martinez’s career line: 219-100, 2.93 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 10.0 K/9.
Once again, for comparison’s sake, I am using someone who is typically considered a future Hall of Famer to compare Pettitte’s numbers too, just to indicate how far off the pace he is in everything but Wins. While Pettitte’s career winning percentage is fairly impressive – No one who is 102 games over the .500 mark for Wins has ever NOT made it in into the hall of fame. The rest of Pettitte’s numbers are not anywhere near that elite. His ERA, WHIP, and Hits and Strikeouts per nine innings are all fairly solid, and fairly typical for a Number 3 starter. How many pitchers in the Hall of Fame have given up more than one hit per inning in their career? The answer is one, and he got in 65 years ago. How many Number 3 starters make the Hall of Fame? Only the ones who have the longevity to win 300 games, which Pettitte has not done. Once again, Pettitte’s win total is inflated by the great offenses he pitched for.
There may have been a time where Win Percentage MIGHT have been enough to get Pettitte into the Hall of Fame, but if the last two American League Cy Young Award winners, who were not even in the top 10 in Wins in their respective years (Zach Greinke, 16-8 in 2009 and Felix Hernandez, 13-12 in 2010) indicate anything, it is that voters are starting to look at more than just Wins.
Now, I feel it necessary to post a disclaimer in saying that I think Andy Pettitte is certainly a very good pitcher. If I did not think so, I would not have begun this article by stating that the Yankees rotation is going to miss him. However, being in the Hall of Fame means being MORE than very good. It means being among the best of your era. Something that Andy Pettitte certainly is not. It should be noted that I did not even bring up pitchers like Randy Johnson and other pitchers who seem to be a lock for first ballot on the Hall of Fame. Pettitte will forever be remembered as a good player with multiple World Series wins and rings, especially because he plays for the biggest team in the sport, but this does not make him a Hall of Famer.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Sleeper of the AL: Baltimore Orioles
First of all: Yes, I am alive. I am just in graduate school, so in some ways I may as well not be. I have decided to attempt (yes, I've said that before) to revive this blog, but given my schedule, I will probably only be updating once a week. But hey, that's a lot more than has been going on since October.
At any rate, my topic for this week is to discuss the team that I feel is not getting enough attention regarding the moves they have made this offseason, and how much better their team has likely gotten in the mean time. First, let's recap what the Baltimore Orioles have done this off-season that I believe can contribute to their winning this year, with brief analysis, in no particular order:
1. Traded RP David Hernandez and RP Kam Mickolio for 3B Mark Reynolds.
I would argue that the Orioles came away as huge winners in this trade. While they did trade a guy with a high ceiling in Kam Mickolio, the Orioles received an extremely solid corner infield bat. While Reynolds did struggle to a .198/.320/.433 line last year, he still drew 83 Walks and hit 32 Home Runs. In large part, the .198average is due to bad luck. Now, the guy is never going to be a batting champion given his enormous strikeout rate, but it's easy to deal with a guy hitting .240 if he has a decent OBP and SLG, which should be easy for Reynolds to obtain this year. Also, while Reynolds is leaving a hitter's park, he is also moving to a hitter's park, so he should not see any decline in his power numbers. It should also be noted that Reynolds is no slouch defensively, and his production on both sides of the ball should be a major improvement over Garret Atkins and Miguel Tejada. Oh, and if you needed any more pros for the Orioles, Reynolds is signed for a fairly affordable $13.5 million/year through 2013, and is still just 27 years old.
The Short Version: Reynolds brings considerable power, better defense, and some future stability at 3B.
2. Traded a couple of low minors prospects for SS J.J. Hardy and INF Brendan Harris.
J.J. Hardy, like Reynolds, had a bad year last year. Unlike Reynolds, Hardy has the excuse of an injury that limited him to 101 games, which contributed to him finishing with a .268/.320/.394 line. Unlike Reynolds however, Hardy seems to have lost the power he showed in 2007 and 2008, hitting 50 home runs between the two season, having hit only 17 home runs in the two following seasons combined. Despite that, most metrics still show Hardy as a great defender, and he is a great buy low target for the Orioles. Is it likely that Hardy rebounds to be a 25 homer guy this year? No. But it's entirely possible that he Slugs above .450, and contributes double digit homers to a club that had very little offense out of shortstop last year. Hardy is only signed through this year, but you can bet that if he manages to revive his career at Camden Yards, the Orioles will be right there with an extension.
Clearly, Brendan Harris is just an afterthought here, and likely an attempt by the Twins to dump his $1.6 million salary. Harris is nothing more than a utility man, and doesn't even defend very well, but he can play all over the infield, so that has some value. It would not be completely shocking to see him released before Spring Training, however.
The Short Version: Hardy contributes solid defense, and more offense than the Orioles got out of SS last year, even if he repeats what he did last year over a full season. Harris brings depth, and not much else.
3. The 1B Derrek Lee signing.
This signing may be for just one year, but that in itself is a wise move by the Orioles. Derrek Lee has had an injury history, and is not young by baseball standards at 35 years old. However, like Hardy, Lee is a great reclamation project. It is easy to forget after Lee's struggles last year (.260/.347/.428 with only 19 homers) that in 2009 Lee hit .306/.393/.579 with 35 homers. It is not a stretch to think that Lee could return to a similar level this year. While it is unlikely he repeats his 2009 season, it would not be a shock to see Lee split the difference between the two seasons, and do something like .280/.365/.500 with 25 homers. And once again, even if Lee does what he did last year, he will be an improvement over Garret Atkins at first base.
The Short Version: Lee brings more power in the middle of the order and a leadership factor the Orioles may not have had last season.
4. The DH Vladimir Guerrero signing.
While this hasn't actually happened yet, it is all but guaranteed to happen at some point in the next week. While Vlad the Impaler is a disaster in the outfield these days, he will provide the Orioles with a powerful DH. Guerrerro is a near-lock for a .300 batting average and 25 home runs for the Orioles. Unlike the other signings, Guerrerro will be taking the position of one of the few productive Orioles players last year, Luke Scott. However, Luke Scott's power will still be in the line-up, as he has already volunteered to move to the Outfield should the Orioles sign Vlad.
The Short Version: Guerrero will only be able to play on the offensive side of the game, but should provide enough production their to justify signing him.
Clearly, all of these signings represent some improvement for the Orioles for next year, at least on offense and defense. Every one of the players that the Orioles have acquired this offseason (aside from Vlad) has at the very least a history of producing home runs and solid defense. In addition to everything they have done, the Orioles should (with luck) also receive a whole season of Brian Roberts next year, which should also contribute to their offense. If you are still not convinced that the Orioles offense has serious potential next year, look at the first 7 of a potential line-up for next year:
1. Brian Roberts
2. Adam Jones
3. Vladimir Guerrero
4. Mark Reynolds
5. Derrek Lee
6. Luke Scott
7. J.J. Hardy
Batters 2-6 int his line-up are near-locks for around 20 home runs, which is intimidating in any line-up. Pitchers will not have an easy time facing the Orioles.
However, it should also be clear that I have done very little to discuss Orioles pitching next year, which should probably still be a major problem. Jeremy Guthrie did pitch to his talent level last year, which is a good sign, and Brad Bergesen also displayed he has what it takes to pitch at the big league level. After these two however, the image becomes cloudy. Orioles pitching next year, despite their major advances in position players, will probably keep them from being legitimate contendors in a division as powerful as the AL East.
However, I think it is entirely possible for the Orioles to finish with an 81-81 record this season, which seems to be more than any one else is giving them. I will even go so far as to predict that they will finish ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays, who seem to be getting much of the offseason attention that the Orioles deserve.
At any rate, my topic for this week is to discuss the team that I feel is not getting enough attention regarding the moves they have made this offseason, and how much better their team has likely gotten in the mean time. First, let's recap what the Baltimore Orioles have done this off-season that I believe can contribute to their winning this year, with brief analysis, in no particular order:
1. Traded RP David Hernandez and RP Kam Mickolio for 3B Mark Reynolds.
I would argue that the Orioles came away as huge winners in this trade. While they did trade a guy with a high ceiling in Kam Mickolio, the Orioles received an extremely solid corner infield bat. While Reynolds did struggle to a .198/.320/.433 line last year, he still drew 83 Walks and hit 32 Home Runs. In large part, the .198average is due to bad luck. Now, the guy is never going to be a batting champion given his enormous strikeout rate, but it's easy to deal with a guy hitting .240 if he has a decent OBP and SLG, which should be easy for Reynolds to obtain this year. Also, while Reynolds is leaving a hitter's park, he is also moving to a hitter's park, so he should not see any decline in his power numbers. It should also be noted that Reynolds is no slouch defensively, and his production on both sides of the ball should be a major improvement over Garret Atkins and Miguel Tejada. Oh, and if you needed any more pros for the Orioles, Reynolds is signed for a fairly affordable $13.5 million/year through 2013, and is still just 27 years old.
The Short Version: Reynolds brings considerable power, better defense, and some future stability at 3B.
2. Traded a couple of low minors prospects for SS J.J. Hardy and INF Brendan Harris.
J.J. Hardy, like Reynolds, had a bad year last year. Unlike Reynolds, Hardy has the excuse of an injury that limited him to 101 games, which contributed to him finishing with a .268/.320/.394 line. Unlike Reynolds however, Hardy seems to have lost the power he showed in 2007 and 2008, hitting 50 home runs between the two season, having hit only 17 home runs in the two following seasons combined. Despite that, most metrics still show Hardy as a great defender, and he is a great buy low target for the Orioles. Is it likely that Hardy rebounds to be a 25 homer guy this year? No. But it's entirely possible that he Slugs above .450, and contributes double digit homers to a club that had very little offense out of shortstop last year. Hardy is only signed through this year, but you can bet that if he manages to revive his career at Camden Yards, the Orioles will be right there with an extension.
Clearly, Brendan Harris is just an afterthought here, and likely an attempt by the Twins to dump his $1.6 million salary. Harris is nothing more than a utility man, and doesn't even defend very well, but he can play all over the infield, so that has some value. It would not be completely shocking to see him released before Spring Training, however.
The Short Version: Hardy contributes solid defense, and more offense than the Orioles got out of SS last year, even if he repeats what he did last year over a full season. Harris brings depth, and not much else.
3. The 1B Derrek Lee signing.
This signing may be for just one year, but that in itself is a wise move by the Orioles. Derrek Lee has had an injury history, and is not young by baseball standards at 35 years old. However, like Hardy, Lee is a great reclamation project. It is easy to forget after Lee's struggles last year (.260/.347/.428 with only 19 homers) that in 2009 Lee hit .306/.393/.579 with 35 homers. It is not a stretch to think that Lee could return to a similar level this year. While it is unlikely he repeats his 2009 season, it would not be a shock to see Lee split the difference between the two seasons, and do something like .280/.365/.500 with 25 homers. And once again, even if Lee does what he did last year, he will be an improvement over Garret Atkins at first base.
The Short Version: Lee brings more power in the middle of the order and a leadership factor the Orioles may not have had last season.
4. The DH Vladimir Guerrero signing.
While this hasn't actually happened yet, it is all but guaranteed to happen at some point in the next week. While Vlad the Impaler is a disaster in the outfield these days, he will provide the Orioles with a powerful DH. Guerrerro is a near-lock for a .300 batting average and 25 home runs for the Orioles. Unlike the other signings, Guerrerro will be taking the position of one of the few productive Orioles players last year, Luke Scott. However, Luke Scott's power will still be in the line-up, as he has already volunteered to move to the Outfield should the Orioles sign Vlad.
The Short Version: Guerrero will only be able to play on the offensive side of the game, but should provide enough production their to justify signing him.
Clearly, all of these signings represent some improvement for the Orioles for next year, at least on offense and defense. Every one of the players that the Orioles have acquired this offseason (aside from Vlad) has at the very least a history of producing home runs and solid defense. In addition to everything they have done, the Orioles should (with luck) also receive a whole season of Brian Roberts next year, which should also contribute to their offense. If you are still not convinced that the Orioles offense has serious potential next year, look at the first 7 of a potential line-up for next year:
1. Brian Roberts
2. Adam Jones
3. Vladimir Guerrero
4. Mark Reynolds
5. Derrek Lee
6. Luke Scott
7. J.J. Hardy
Batters 2-6 int his line-up are near-locks for around 20 home runs, which is intimidating in any line-up. Pitchers will not have an easy time facing the Orioles.
However, it should also be clear that I have done very little to discuss Orioles pitching next year, which should probably still be a major problem. Jeremy Guthrie did pitch to his talent level last year, which is a good sign, and Brad Bergesen also displayed he has what it takes to pitch at the big league level. After these two however, the image becomes cloudy. Orioles pitching next year, despite their major advances in position players, will probably keep them from being legitimate contendors in a division as powerful as the AL East.
However, I think it is entirely possible for the Orioles to finish with an 81-81 record this season, which seems to be more than any one else is giving them. I will even go so far as to predict that they will finish ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays, who seem to be getting much of the offseason attention that the Orioles deserve.
Friday, October 15, 2010
NLCS Preview
This series looks to be a series with some amazing pitching. The "Big Three" of each team is very impressive. The Giants will have Strikeout King Tim Lincecum (3.43 ERA, 9.8 K/9), Jonathan Sanchez (3.07 ERA, 9.5 K/9), and Matt Cain (3.14 ERA, 1.084 WHIP) going in their first three games. Clearly the Phillies have their work cut out for them, despite their amazing offense.
Luckily for the Phillies, to go with their amazing offense, they have a "Big Three" of their own with extremely impressive numbers. They will be sending likely Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay (2.44 ERA, 1.041 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9) to the mound, followed by WHIP-leading Roy Oswalt (2.76 ERA, 1.025 WHIP, 8.2 K/9), followed by Cole Hamels (3.06 ERA, 9.1 K/9).
Obviously in most statistical categories (aside from Strikeouts), the Phillies have an edge in pitching. However, it should be noted that the Phillies "Big Three" have not faired especially well against the Giants, which is kind of baffling giving the Giants' mediocre offensive attack. So far this season, in 45 innings against the Giants, the "Big Three" has put up a 4.80 ERA. This is a somewhat small sample size, but it is not a miniscule one. Psychologically, it may also give the Giants more of an edge than people think.
Obviously in sizing up the line-ups, the Phillies have the clear advantage. One through eight the Phillies have an above average offensive player given their position. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Jimmy Rollins (when healthy) are all well above average offensive players.
The Giants can not boast two former MVPs in their line-up like the Phillies can, but they are not completely punchless either, as Giants teams of the last few years have been. Buster Posey, who will be battling Jason Heyward for Rookie of the Year honors, proved himself to be an offensive weapon (.305/.357/.507 with 18 Homers in only 108 games), and Pat Burrel seems to have had a Renaissance in the National League since being let go by the Rays, bashing 18 home runs in 96 games for the Giants. Still, the Phillies have a very clear edge in the offensive department.
Like I did in my post about the ALDS, I will finish up by discussing some key questions for each team.
For the Giants:
Can Kung Fu Panda turn it on? - Pablo Sandoval was one of the biggest dissapointments of the year for the Giants, following his impressive 2009 with a .268batting average and only 13 home runs. He also did not do anything impressive against the Braves in the ALDS, collecting one single in 7 plate appearances. The fact that he was only used in two of the four games indicates how little faith the Giants have in him right now. However, if Pablo Sandoval can get it going, and start hitting like he did in 2009, if only for this post-season series, it would be a major upgrade for the Giants line-up.
Will Tim Lincecum pitch on short rest? - I realize this is kind of a cop out, because I used a similar question to discuss the ALCS too, but in this "Year of the Pitcher" with so many pitchers being utterly incredible this year, it is hard not to talk about. I have not heard whether or not the Giants plan on using Lincecum on short rest. At this point it seems that Madison Bumgarner is slated to pitch game four. Bumgarner is no slouch, and Lincecum's smaller frame, at least according to "baseball guys", doesn't seem like the best body type to stand up pitching on short rest throughout this series. It seems more likely that Bumgarner starts game 4, and that Lincecum pitches on normal rest throughout the rest of the postseason.
For the Phillies
Do the Giants have the "Big Three" figured out? - If the Phillies "Big Three" pitch against the Giants like they did in the regular season, they may very well find themselves on the losing end of this series. A 4.80 ERA allows for plenty of runs for the Giants rotation to get wins from. The big question here is whether or not the Giants just coincidentally encountered the "Big Three" at times of the season when they were a little off, or if the Giants have the Phillies' "Big Three"'s number.
Will Roy Halladay pitch on short rest? - Yeah, I did it again. I think this is a very big question, as dominant as Halladay has been this season, and as sturdy of a pitcher he seems to be. It should be noted that Halladay has pitched a staggering 259.2 innings this season (counting the post-season), and even he has to have a wall that he will encounter. While Halladay is largely considered capable of pitching on short rest by scouts, it will be interesting to see if the Phillies are weary to do so because of his massive workload this season. If Halladay does NOT pitch, it seems likely that Joe Blanton, who did not have an especially impressive season will take the ball. While the Phillies have a marginal advantage when looking at the first three pitchers for each team, when looking at all four pitchers (Bumgarner for the Giants, Blanton for the Phillies), things look a lot more equal.
That's it for now, enjoy ALCS game one tonight!
Luckily for the Phillies, to go with their amazing offense, they have a "Big Three" of their own with extremely impressive numbers. They will be sending likely Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay (2.44 ERA, 1.041 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9) to the mound, followed by WHIP-leading Roy Oswalt (2.76 ERA, 1.025 WHIP, 8.2 K/9), followed by Cole Hamels (3.06 ERA, 9.1 K/9).
Obviously in most statistical categories (aside from Strikeouts), the Phillies have an edge in pitching. However, it should be noted that the Phillies "Big Three" have not faired especially well against the Giants, which is kind of baffling giving the Giants' mediocre offensive attack. So far this season, in 45 innings against the Giants, the "Big Three" has put up a 4.80 ERA. This is a somewhat small sample size, but it is not a miniscule one. Psychologically, it may also give the Giants more of an edge than people think.
Obviously in sizing up the line-ups, the Phillies have the clear advantage. One through eight the Phillies have an above average offensive player given their position. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Jimmy Rollins (when healthy) are all well above average offensive players.
The Giants can not boast two former MVPs in their line-up like the Phillies can, but they are not completely punchless either, as Giants teams of the last few years have been. Buster Posey, who will be battling Jason Heyward for Rookie of the Year honors, proved himself to be an offensive weapon (.305/.357/.507 with 18 Homers in only 108 games), and Pat Burrel seems to have had a Renaissance in the National League since being let go by the Rays, bashing 18 home runs in 96 games for the Giants. Still, the Phillies have a very clear edge in the offensive department.
Like I did in my post about the ALDS, I will finish up by discussing some key questions for each team.
For the Giants:
Can Kung Fu Panda turn it on? - Pablo Sandoval was one of the biggest dissapointments of the year for the Giants, following his impressive 2009 with a .268batting average and only 13 home runs. He also did not do anything impressive against the Braves in the ALDS, collecting one single in 7 plate appearances. The fact that he was only used in two of the four games indicates how little faith the Giants have in him right now. However, if Pablo Sandoval can get it going, and start hitting like he did in 2009, if only for this post-season series, it would be a major upgrade for the Giants line-up.
Will Tim Lincecum pitch on short rest? - I realize this is kind of a cop out, because I used a similar question to discuss the ALCS too, but in this "Year of the Pitcher" with so many pitchers being utterly incredible this year, it is hard not to talk about. I have not heard whether or not the Giants plan on using Lincecum on short rest. At this point it seems that Madison Bumgarner is slated to pitch game four. Bumgarner is no slouch, and Lincecum's smaller frame, at least according to "baseball guys", doesn't seem like the best body type to stand up pitching on short rest throughout this series. It seems more likely that Bumgarner starts game 4, and that Lincecum pitches on normal rest throughout the rest of the postseason.
For the Phillies
Do the Giants have the "Big Three" figured out? - If the Phillies "Big Three" pitch against the Giants like they did in the regular season, they may very well find themselves on the losing end of this series. A 4.80 ERA allows for plenty of runs for the Giants rotation to get wins from. The big question here is whether or not the Giants just coincidentally encountered the "Big Three" at times of the season when they were a little off, or if the Giants have the Phillies' "Big Three"'s number.
Will Roy Halladay pitch on short rest? - Yeah, I did it again. I think this is a very big question, as dominant as Halladay has been this season, and as sturdy of a pitcher he seems to be. It should be noted that Halladay has pitched a staggering 259.2 innings this season (counting the post-season), and even he has to have a wall that he will encounter. While Halladay is largely considered capable of pitching on short rest by scouts, it will be interesting to see if the Phillies are weary to do so because of his massive workload this season. If Halladay does NOT pitch, it seems likely that Joe Blanton, who did not have an especially impressive season will take the ball. While the Phillies have a marginal advantage when looking at the first three pitchers for each team, when looking at all four pitchers (Bumgarner for the Giants, Blanton for the Phillies), things look a lot more equal.
That's it for now, enjoy ALCS game one tonight!
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
How will the ALCS go?
Hey everyone,
Now that we know who the last 4 teams are this year, I thought I'd kind of preview the two series and talk about what I think are going to be important issues.
Today I'm going to talk about the ALCS.
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
A lot of analysts seem to be thinking that the Rangers are nothing more than a speed-bump for the Yankees to get back to the World Series. I would argue that the Rangers deserve more respect than that. Yes, Cliff Lee will not be starting until game three, and yes he will only be able to start two games in the series, and that is assuming it goes to 7 games. But people seem to be overlooking C.J. Wilson, who put up stellar numbers this year (3.35 ERA, 7.5 K/9) that are in fact comparable to Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia (3.18 ERA, 7.5 K/9).
In other words, the Yankees will be facing a tough left-hander in games one, three, four, and six. The Yankees fair much worse against left handers (31-27 in the regular season) than they do against Right Handers (64-40).
It is also important to bring up the fact that the Rangers have home field advantage in this series, as the Yankees are the Wild Card entrant. Once again, the numbers do not favor the Yankees. The Yankees barely managed to stay above .500 on the Road, (43-38), while the Rangers are a dangerous team at home (51-30).
Further developing the argument that this series will be more evenly matched that most people seem to think is the fact that the Yankees and Rangers actually split their season series this year, going 4-4 against eachother.
Another thing that makes me like the Rangers in this series is the fact that the Rangers are pretty much loaded when it comes to Right-handed bats. This is important because Sabathia and Pettitte will likely start the most games for the Yankees, both of which are left handed. Hamilton, Cruz, and Kinsler all destroy left-handed pitching. And that's without even talking about Michael Young, who is no slouch.
Basically, what I am trying to argue is that the Rangers should put up a very good fight in the ALCS, and could even win it, despite what most people seem to have concluded. To conclude this thing, I will be talking about the biggest questions for each of these teams.
For the Rangers:
Can their bullpen get it together? - In the ALDS the Rangers bullpen was from the effective bullpen it was during the regular season. Even Neftali Feliz, a very good Rookie of the Year candidate, struggled. It does not seem impossible for the bullpen to get back to being effective in the ALCS, but many of the people in the Rangers bullpen do not have much postseason experience, and the bright lights at Yankee Stadium may cause them problem.
Can Ian Kinsler stay hot? - Ian Kinsler had an injury-riddled regular season, but was productive when he could play. He seems to have really turned it on for the post season, having hit .344 while bashing 3 Home Runs in five games. If he can stay hot, the Rangers will be in a very good place.
Will Cliff Lee pitch on short rest in an emergency situation? - So far it has been fairly clear that neither Lee nor Ron Washington are interested in having Lee pitch on short rest, something he has never done in his career. If a situation arises in this series where Lee is needed to get the Rangers back on the winning track, will they use him? My guess is the answer is probably no, which is something that does not bode well for the Rangers.
For the Yankees
Will the long layoff have done the Yankees harm? - The Yankees once against brutally swept the Twins, leading to a long lay-off for them as the Rays/Rangers series went to five games. There are examples of long layoffs being good for teams, and examples of them being completely horrible (2007 Rockies, for instance), which group will these Yankees fall into? Many commentators have stated that the veteran nature of the Yankees will make it hard for them to lose their focus, and this could very well be true.
Will A.J. Burnett pitch game 4? - At this point, Joe Girardi intends to use C.C. Sabathia, Andy Pettite, Phil Hughes, and A.J. Burnett in that order. A.J. Burnett had a year he would likely like to forget, but the Yankees really have no other option for a fourth starter, as their depth in this department is far from desirable. The question becomes, if the Yankees are down 2-1 before game four, will Burnett still be pitching it? My gut feeling is that the answer to this is "no", as C.C. Sabathia has proven throughout his career that he can pitch well on short rest. C.C. Sabathia with 3-days rest versus a well-rested, but gassed, A.J. Burnett seems like an easy choice to me. Especially if it means going down 3-1 or evening up the series. The answer to this question could very much end up determining how well the Yankees do in this series.
That's all I have for now, I will try to post a similar blog about the NLCS tomorrow.
Enjoy some post-season baseball!
Now that we know who the last 4 teams are this year, I thought I'd kind of preview the two series and talk about what I think are going to be important issues.
Today I'm going to talk about the ALCS.
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
A lot of analysts seem to be thinking that the Rangers are nothing more than a speed-bump for the Yankees to get back to the World Series. I would argue that the Rangers deserve more respect than that. Yes, Cliff Lee will not be starting until game three, and yes he will only be able to start two games in the series, and that is assuming it goes to 7 games. But people seem to be overlooking C.J. Wilson, who put up stellar numbers this year (3.35 ERA, 7.5 K/9) that are in fact comparable to Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia (3.18 ERA, 7.5 K/9).
In other words, the Yankees will be facing a tough left-hander in games one, three, four, and six. The Yankees fair much worse against left handers (31-27 in the regular season) than they do against Right Handers (64-40).
It is also important to bring up the fact that the Rangers have home field advantage in this series, as the Yankees are the Wild Card entrant. Once again, the numbers do not favor the Yankees. The Yankees barely managed to stay above .500 on the Road, (43-38), while the Rangers are a dangerous team at home (51-30).
Further developing the argument that this series will be more evenly matched that most people seem to think is the fact that the Yankees and Rangers actually split their season series this year, going 4-4 against eachother.
Another thing that makes me like the Rangers in this series is the fact that the Rangers are pretty much loaded when it comes to Right-handed bats. This is important because Sabathia and Pettitte will likely start the most games for the Yankees, both of which are left handed. Hamilton, Cruz, and Kinsler all destroy left-handed pitching. And that's without even talking about Michael Young, who is no slouch.
Basically, what I am trying to argue is that the Rangers should put up a very good fight in the ALCS, and could even win it, despite what most people seem to have concluded. To conclude this thing, I will be talking about the biggest questions for each of these teams.
For the Rangers:
Can their bullpen get it together? - In the ALDS the Rangers bullpen was from the effective bullpen it was during the regular season. Even Neftali Feliz, a very good Rookie of the Year candidate, struggled. It does not seem impossible for the bullpen to get back to being effective in the ALCS, but many of the people in the Rangers bullpen do not have much postseason experience, and the bright lights at Yankee Stadium may cause them problem.
Can Ian Kinsler stay hot? - Ian Kinsler had an injury-riddled regular season, but was productive when he could play. He seems to have really turned it on for the post season, having hit .344 while bashing 3 Home Runs in five games. If he can stay hot, the Rangers will be in a very good place.
Will Cliff Lee pitch on short rest in an emergency situation? - So far it has been fairly clear that neither Lee nor Ron Washington are interested in having Lee pitch on short rest, something he has never done in his career. If a situation arises in this series where Lee is needed to get the Rangers back on the winning track, will they use him? My guess is the answer is probably no, which is something that does not bode well for the Rangers.
For the Yankees
Will the long layoff have done the Yankees harm? - The Yankees once against brutally swept the Twins, leading to a long lay-off for them as the Rays/Rangers series went to five games. There are examples of long layoffs being good for teams, and examples of them being completely horrible (2007 Rockies, for instance), which group will these Yankees fall into? Many commentators have stated that the veteran nature of the Yankees will make it hard for them to lose their focus, and this could very well be true.
Will A.J. Burnett pitch game 4? - At this point, Joe Girardi intends to use C.C. Sabathia, Andy Pettite, Phil Hughes, and A.J. Burnett in that order. A.J. Burnett had a year he would likely like to forget, but the Yankees really have no other option for a fourth starter, as their depth in this department is far from desirable. The question becomes, if the Yankees are down 2-1 before game four, will Burnett still be pitching it? My gut feeling is that the answer to this is "no", as C.C. Sabathia has proven throughout his career that he can pitch well on short rest. C.C. Sabathia with 3-days rest versus a well-rested, but gassed, A.J. Burnett seems like an easy choice to me. Especially if it means going down 3-1 or evening up the series. The answer to this question could very much end up determining how well the Yankees do in this series.
That's all I have for now, I will try to post a similar blog about the NLCS tomorrow.
Enjoy some post-season baseball!
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Some Comments on Baseball
Sorry for completely dissapearing from the face of the Earth for a while. Between moving, starting graduate school, having a broken computer, and no cable, I haven't had an extreme amount of free time. However, I think I've gotten to where I can manage my time more effectively and I will have the time to update this a little more regularly. Granted, heading into the offseason there probably won't be as much to talk about, aside from trade rumors.
Anyway, on to baseball.
The playoffs have been interesting, although the first few series have looked like kind of bad match-ups, but that's baseball for you.
The Yankees swept the Twins again, and will be playing either the Rangers or the Rays in the ALCS.
I think it's fairly likely that the Rangers manage to win that series, because even if the Rays get it back to Tropicana Field, that means they will be seeing Cliff Lee again, who seems to have it really dialed up this post-season, just like he did last year. The Rangers also have the confidence of knowing that they won the first two games in St. Petersburg without any problem, so playing game five there should not intimidate them, if it comes to that.
The Phillies seem to be on the verge of sweeping the Reds, whose pitching phenom let them down in game two, and who were the victims of the second no-hitter in post-season history in game one. The pitching match-up tonight doesn't seem to favor the Reds at all.
The Braves and Giants series is an interesting one, as both teams have pretty good pitching with pretty average offenses. Unfortunatley, the Braves may have lost their closer for the rest of the series, which does not exactly bode well for them. Regardless, the Braves Giants series is probably the most evenly matched of the opening series, and I could see it going the full exciting 5 games.
Additionally, I thought it would be interesting to look back at my pre-season predictions about who would make it into the playoffs this year.
In the AL I managed to get two of four correct. I had the Yankees winning the AL East and the Red Sox winning the Wild Card. Obviously the Red Sox's massive number of injuries prevented this, and the Rays surprising 96-win season despite their offense horribly underachieving did as well.
I also got two of four in the AL East correct, predicting the Phillies winning the NL East and the Braves winning the Wild Card. I predicted the Rockies winning the NL West and the Cardinals winning the NL Central. Obviously I got both of those pretty wrong. The Rockies were contendors until September, but never really threatened the Padres or Giants. The Cardinals stumbled late in the season and only managed to finish a few games over .500.
Anyway, on to baseball.
The playoffs have been interesting, although the first few series have looked like kind of bad match-ups, but that's baseball for you.
The Yankees swept the Twins again, and will be playing either the Rangers or the Rays in the ALCS.
I think it's fairly likely that the Rangers manage to win that series, because even if the Rays get it back to Tropicana Field, that means they will be seeing Cliff Lee again, who seems to have it really dialed up this post-season, just like he did last year. The Rangers also have the confidence of knowing that they won the first two games in St. Petersburg without any problem, so playing game five there should not intimidate them, if it comes to that.
The Phillies seem to be on the verge of sweeping the Reds, whose pitching phenom let them down in game two, and who were the victims of the second no-hitter in post-season history in game one. The pitching match-up tonight doesn't seem to favor the Reds at all.
The Braves and Giants series is an interesting one, as both teams have pretty good pitching with pretty average offenses. Unfortunatley, the Braves may have lost their closer for the rest of the series, which does not exactly bode well for them. Regardless, the Braves Giants series is probably the most evenly matched of the opening series, and I could see it going the full exciting 5 games.
Additionally, I thought it would be interesting to look back at my pre-season predictions about who would make it into the playoffs this year.
In the AL I managed to get two of four correct. I had the Yankees winning the AL East and the Red Sox winning the Wild Card. Obviously the Red Sox's massive number of injuries prevented this, and the Rays surprising 96-win season despite their offense horribly underachieving did as well.
I also got two of four in the AL East correct, predicting the Phillies winning the NL East and the Braves winning the Wild Card. I predicted the Rockies winning the NL West and the Cardinals winning the NL Central. Obviously I got both of those pretty wrong. The Rockies were contendors until September, but never really threatened the Padres or Giants. The Cardinals stumbled late in the season and only managed to finish a few games over .500.
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